JimmyMac's Blog
Average Number of Rolls Between 7's - Goatcabin
Goatcabin - I'm hoping you will see this and maybe help me out if you have time.I've read online that the average shooter will make about 8.5 passes before a 7 is rolled. I guess the math shows that a 7 should show up on average every 6 rolls. Since you are so good with the statistics, I'm wondering if you might be able to give me some ideas on the following:
What would be the optimal number of rolls after a 7 has shown up to Lay the 4/10 in hopes thats a 7 shows up next?
I mean in theory, you could state you could watch a 7 show up and then wait for 5 other numbers to show up and then Lay the 4/10 with the hopes of the 7 showing up on the 6th roll.
Now... we all know that the 7 doesn't show up on a typical session at the craps table every 6 rolls. But, any ideas on what might be the best amount of rolls to wait before throwing a Lay 4/10 down?
For example, if you see a 7 rolled and then you counted maybe 10 consecutive rolls before another 7 is rolled and then Layed the 4/10... wouldn't your odds seem to go up a little that a 7 would be thrown before the 4/10? I know that every dice roll is independent of the rolls before it. However, there has to be some theory behind the above, isn't there?
If you have time, love to hear your thoughts.
Thanks.
Comments
I'd like to chime in here for a moment ...
I know the dice have no memory but I too feel that "a seven is due" after a few rolls because thats the way it happens in real life. Sure sometimes its Point then Seven-Out but usually there is going to be a few rolls and then a decision. Thats why I'll be on the PassLine then make a few DontCome bets, I feel that Seven is "due".
You want to Lay the 4 after there has been six rolls? Fine, but that very next roll can be the 4 even though you feel its Seven that is due. If I had been at the Borgata on the date of that four hour roll, I'd have probably done that Lay The Four bet after a few rolls and it sure would have turned out bad for me.
Most rolls are short but sometimes my two DonTCome bets get knocked off and then that Seven finally shows up.
It absolutely doesn't matter. The premise behind your question of "What would be the optimal number of rolls after a 7 has shown up to Lay the 4/10 in hopes thats a 7 shows up next?" is that the chances of a 7 change over time, or change based on what numbers have or haven't appeared. They don't.
It's a common misconception, but the probabilities for independent random events like dice rolls don't change over time. It's also common to confuse the chances of something happening in a series of outcomes, like a 7 in the next six rolls, with the chances of something happening in the future if it hasn't happened in the recent past (like a 7 on the next roll if the last five weren't 7).
In short, no, your odds don't "go up a little that a 7 would be thrown before the 4/10" regardless of how long or how short you wait, or what other numbers have or haven't appeared. It makes no difference.