13Doc13
13Doc13
  • Threads: 6
  • Posts: 27
Joined: Mar 6, 2010
November 23rd, 2011 at 6:50:56 PM permalink
As we all know, to win on a slot machine is pure luck. Sometimes you win, most times you lose as one tries to get the best entertainment value for their money. However, I have come across a game that defies the math. For the sake of argument, here are the given conditions: a video slot with an approximate payback percentage of 91%, $50 minimum coin-in per play – maximum $120 producing 170 to 400 spins respectively, my personal winning percentage is 80% (more than 20 play dates). If one plays a similar video slot, then what would be the expected number of wins with 20 events?
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
  • Threads: 80
  • Posts: 7237
Joined: Mar 11, 2010
November 23rd, 2011 at 8:13:47 PM permalink
You haven't given enough information. The number of sessions is irrelevant, since it could simply mask several small wins and a couple giant losses. Have you actually made money?
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
13Doc13
13Doc13
  • Threads: 6
  • Posts: 27
Joined: Mar 6, 2010
November 24th, 2011 at 4:18:32 AM permalink
Yes ... but the money won is irrelevant. I am looking at this from a purely mathematical win/lose scenario. I bet a fixed amount on every spin and my play ranges between 170 to 400 spins per session. I know anything can happen in the short run but beating a certain type of video slot (not a specific machine) 80% of the time defies the laws of mathematics. What else is needed to calculate an expected number of wins? Thanks for the comment and question...
13Doc13
13Doc13
  • Threads: 6
  • Posts: 27
Joined: Mar 6, 2010
December 11th, 2011 at 8:58:07 AM permalink
Based on my calculations, winning on a particular slot machine with a given standard deviation of 8.74% (the only SD on record) and a theoretical payout percentage of around 92% is .003 ... so this specific streak of luck is HIGHLY unlikely!
  • Jump to: