EV on MLB total line?
September 23rd, 2011 at 11:07:19 PM
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Wizard,
Love your site. Thanks for all you do.
I am a MLB handicapper that focuses mostly on moneylines. I am trying to expand into totals (over/unders) but am unsure how to calculate the EV.
For example, let's say my calculations show a game to have an expected total of 9.8. The over/under is 8 at -110. What is my EV betting over, assuming my calculations are correct?
Obviously I don't just want the answer, I want to know how to calculate it every time. Any help is appreciated.
Thanks!
Love your site. Thanks for all you do.
I am a MLB handicapper that focuses mostly on moneylines. I am trying to expand into totals (over/unders) but am unsure how to calculate the EV.
For example, let's say my calculations show a game to have an expected total of 9.8. The over/under is 8 at -110. What is my EV betting over, assuming my calculations are correct?
Obviously I don't just want the answer, I want to know how to calculate it every time. Any help is appreciated.
Thanks!
September 24th, 2011 at 3:02:03 AM
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Since somehow you calculated the 'expected total' to be 9.8, using input data you expect to be able to reproduce this expected outcome, you would also need to know the distribution of the expected results in integers (no result will of course ever be 9.8). I'll give 2 examples---
1-7 35%
8 10%
9-infinity 55%
1-7 33%
8 8%
9-infinity 59%
I believe you could find out amongst ALL MLB games the distribution of totals, but this would not NECESSARILY apply to the unique game you are discussing.
As an aside, why do you think the bookmakers would make such a large error? Is one team not playing its best offensive player to rest him that day? Is a notorious 'large strike zone ' ump there that day? Is rain expected possibly resulting in a shortened game? Do you factor in such things in your 'expected total'?
1-7 35%
8 10%
9-infinity 55%
1-7 33%
8 8%
9-infinity 59%
I believe you could find out amongst ALL MLB games the distribution of totals, but this would not NECESSARILY apply to the unique game you are discussing.
As an aside, why do you think the bookmakers would make such a large error? Is one team not playing its best offensive player to rest him that day? Is a notorious 'large strike zone ' ump there that day? Is rain expected possibly resulting in a shortened game? Do you factor in such things in your 'expected total'?
