ChumpChange
ChumpChange
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
  • Threads: 50
  • Posts: 2196
June 15th, 2021 at 7:07:35 PM permalink
Quote: miplet

I did a quick sim 20 million round on this. All 10 points never was made

Points MadeProbability
00.63213425
10.24602000
20.08627125
30.02667240
40.00706125
50.00153045
60.00027080
70.00003600
80.00000335
90.00000025



So a 24% chance of making one point? I thought I read in a blog here that there's only a 27% chance of making one point in a regular craps game. I guess those promises of making a point after you've already established it really bring down the chances from 40%+.
Ace2
Ace2
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
  • Threads: 23
  • Posts: 965
June 15th, 2021 at 7:21:37 PM permalink
41% would be the chance to make one or more points. 59% of making none
Itís all about making that GTA
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
  • Threads: 105
  • Posts: 3707
June 16th, 2021 at 4:03:46 AM permalink
Here's a case where a sim doesn't meet reality. To win at Bonus Craps you must roll all ten numbers ONCE without a seven appearing. And the Bonus Craps "all" has hit twice in a row and even three times in a row.

Anyone throwing the "all" twice in a row has, in effect, won the Fire Bet for all numbers in crapless craps.

(With the Fire Bet a winner-7 does not kill the Fire Bet.)

Of course there's the condition of setting each number as the point but it could happen.

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