Blackjack Computer Simulation Questions

Hello all,

My blackjack strategy (but it's not a progression or regression) was ahead $50,000 (betting $100/hand) after about 298,000 computer-simulated hands. So, if I were at the Bellagio and betting $50,000 per hand, I would have been ahead about $25,000,000!

OK, but after a total of about 623,000 hands and still betting $100/hand, I'm down about $136,000.

My questions:
1) Is my above sceanario (whereby one is ahead after about 1/3 of a million hands but behind after 3/5 of a million hands) fairly common?

2) Do I need at least one billion hands to be 99% confident walking into a casino?

3) Even if the House still has the advantage (say,.17%), can't a player walk away with a hefty sum if betting heavy enough (with relatively small risk) for a very short time (~12,000 hands, or whatever). Is there a formula I can use to calculate risk given house advantage?

4) Does one really need at least a .0000000000001% edge to be able to walk away a winner? In other words, what is a reasonable disadvantage to accept and still expect to win (say, $4,000,000) by betting big in the very short run?

5) Can anyone recommend software that can run more than 25,000 hands at a time. BJsim.com has been great, but I can't run more than 25,000 hands at a time, so I am just sitting there and repeating 25,000 hand sim after 25,000 hand sim.

Thank you for reading this!

Well I'll take a stab at this.

What is your BJ strategy that's neither a progression or regression?

Assuming you were flat-betting every hand at $100 in a 0.0017% HA game neither result would be unusual, the first result of being ahead 500 units after 298,000 hands much better luck than being down 1360 units after 623,000 hands which is only slightly worse than expectation.

When using betting systems, as maybe you mean?, I'd say, yes, one can trade off a higher $win in a shorter period of time. Afterall, I guess that's the point of betting systems - one wins some amount defined by betting system with a high percent of liklihood compared to flat-betting but loses all just often enough to prove the house advantage.

And, of course, calculating risk of success obviously depends on alot on initial bankroll - let's face it, you aren't as likely to win $50K after 298,000 hands if you started with only $1K initial roll compared to $1MM initial roll.

Assuming you're not counting (which you have not inicated you are), you're playing a game with almost even odds. Now, ask yourself what strategy you could employ that would put you ahead in a coin flipping session. The game is exactly even odds so it's slightly better than your BJ scenario. How "heavy" do you think you'd have to bet to get ahead and stay ahead? The point is that no system or strategy can make you a consistent winner in any -EV game and even in the coin flip game you're destined to break even over the long haul.

Any strategy you might devise could get you ahead at the start of a sim but it would just as possibly put you behind from the start and when that happens you're just going to be trying to dig yourself out of that hole. Either you have the mathematical advantage or the house does and when you're playing a game with a house edge it doesn't matter what you do - without hitting that lucky streak and walking away forever you'll eventually lose.

it has been a surprise to me that a million trials is not enough in some cases, to be sure about something. I have picked up on that since joining this forum. Of course you can see that with the example of an edge of .0000000000001% that you mention.