Push 22 Progressive

I was in Las Vegas earlier this week and noticed that they had replaced the Push 22 side bet at Free Bet Blackjack with a progressive side bet. It pays out a jackpot for a 4-5-6-7 of diamonds or a portion of it for another suited 4-5-6-7, with fixed prizes for suited 22, colored 22, or another 22. I'm home now and don't quite remember the paytable for the fixed prizes, but I looked online and the Nevada Gaming Control Board describes four paytables.

Result	Pay Table 1	Pay Table 2	Pay Table 3	Pay Table 4
Suited 4567 – Specific Suit	100% of Jackpot	100% of Jackpot	100% of Jackpot	100% of Jackpot
Suited 4567 – Other	10% of Jackpot	10% of Jackpot	10% of Jackpot	10% of Jackpot
Suited 22	50 to 1	50 to 1	30 to 1	40 to 1
Colored 22	15 to 1	10 to 1	15 to 1	15 to 1
Any 22	5 to 1	5 to 1	5 to 1	5 to 1

I saw this progressive side bet at Horseshoe, Flamingo, Paris, and Planet Hollywood, and all of them had the same jackpot of about $210,000. I'm sure they're all linked. All the tables I saw were 8D H17, but the NGCB also says that the bet can be played with six or eight decks and whether the dealer can hit or stand on soft 17. It also says that the side bet costs $1, but at those casinos they were charging $5. There is jackpot sharing when multiple people at the same table play the side bet and the dealer gets a suited 4-5-6-7.

I didn't play this side bet when I was there. Did I miss out? Was that a high enough jackpot to be positive expected value?

Quote: grossmyn

...dealer gets a suited 4-5-6-7.

I didn't play this side bet when I was there. Did I miss out? Was that a high enough jackpot to be positive expected value?
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No. As I recall it has to be somewhere in the $800K area to be+EV off the top of the deck.

Okay I have figured out how to program the numbers myself and got these numbers for this progressive, given eight decks, dealer hits soft 17, a $5 wager, and the fixed prizes paid "for one" (despite the NGCB site saying "to one" because you don't get your original wager back on this bet). I figure those casinos must have been using Pay Table 1 since that is in the $800K area like Automatic Monkey said. These are for one person playing; because of the jackpot sharing, if two people are playing, the fair jackpot is twice as large, etc.

Value	Pay Table 1	Pay Table 2	Pay Table 3	Pay Table 4
HE at $210,000	27.3884%	33.2266%	34.0884%	30.7384%
Fair Jackpot	$842,619.98	$977,471.11	$997,377.08	$919,998.53

Here are the probabilities of the different outcomes

Result	Probability
Specific 4567	0.000002
Suited 4567	0.000005
Suited 22	0.003350
Colored 22	0.011676
Any 22	0.058511
Loser	0.926456

I assume that everyone at the table who is playing the light will split any 10% or 100%?