Pickleball advantage of serving first
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5 members have voted
December 3rd, 2024 at 11:20:16 AM
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Before I get to the question, let me review the pickleball scoring rules.
There is also a rule that the winning team must win by 2, but to keep the math simple, let's forget that. I think it's a negligible effect.
Assuming each team always has a 50% chance of winning each serve, what is the probability team 1 wins?
Warning that this is a tedious problem with no simple solution that I can see.
The question for the poll is what is the answer. Multiple votes allowed.
- Both teams consist of two players each. I will call them team 1 and team 2 with player A and player B on each team.
- When any player has the serve, he continues to serve until his team misses a point. With each win, the serving team gets a point. With a loss, the serve rotates to the next player. So, only the serving team can earn points.
- Team 1 player B serves. When the other team wins, go to rule 4.
- Team 2 player A serves. When the other team wins, go to rule 5.
- Team 2 player B serves. When the other team wins, go to rule 6.
- Team 1 player A serves. When the other team wins, go to rule 3.
- Repeat rules 3-6 until either team gets to 11 points.
There is also a rule that the winning team must win by 2, but to keep the math simple, let's forget that. I think it's a negligible effect.
Assuming each team always has a 50% chance of winning each serve, what is the probability team 1 wins?
Warning that this is a tedious problem with no simple solution that I can see.
The question for the poll is what is the answer. Multiple votes allowed.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
December 3rd, 2024 at 12:00:25 PM
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How often does a serving team with 11 straight points?Quote: WizardBefore I get to the question, let me review the pickleball scoring rules.
- Both teams consist of two players each. I will call them team 1 and team 2 with player A and player B on each team.
- When any player has the serve, he continues to serve until his team misses a point. With each win, the serving team gets a point. With a loss, the serve rotates to the next player. So, only the serving team can earn points.
- Team 1 player B serves. When the other team wins, go to rule 4.
- Team 2 player A serves. When the other team wins, go to rule 5.
- Team 2 player B serves. When the other team wins, go to rule 6.
- Team 1 player A serves. When the other team wins, go to rule 3.
- Repeat rules 3-6 until either team gets to 11 points.
There is also a rule that the winning team must win by 2, but to keep the math simple, let's forget that. I think it's a negligible effect.
Assuming each team always has a 50% chance of winning each serve, what is the probability team 1 wins?
Warning that this is a tedious problem with no simple solution that I can see.
The question for the poll is what is the answer. Multiple votes allowed.
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♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
December 3rd, 2024 at 1:50:48 PM
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Quote: AxelWolfHow often does a serving team with 11 straight points?
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Assuming a 50% chance of winning each serve, 1 in 2^11 = 1 in 2048.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
December 3rd, 2024 at 3:29:47 PM
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Sounds like a Markov chain exercise.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
December 3rd, 2024 at 3:40:22 PM
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I can’t do the math. But I know the advantage will not even be 1%.
December 3rd, 2024 at 4:25:10 PM
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Quote: SOOPOOI can’t do the math. But I know the advantage will not even be 1%.
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Not sure it’ll actually be an advantage.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
December 3rd, 2024 at 4:57:37 PM
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Quote: unJonQuote: SOOPOOI can’t do the math. But I know the advantage will not even be 1%.
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Not sure it’ll actually be an advantage.
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Perhaps. But it won’t be a disadvantage by 1% either.
December 3rd, 2024 at 6:31:57 PM
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Quote: WizardBefore I get to the question, let me review the pickleball scoring rules.
- Both teams consist of two players each. I will call them team 1 and team 2 with player A and player B on each team.
- When any player has the serve, he continues to serve until his team misses a point. With each win, the serving team gets a point. With a loss, the serve rotates to the next player. So, only the serving team can earn points.
- Team 1 player B serves. When the other team wins, go to rule 4.
- Team 2 player A serves. When the other team wins, go to rule 5.
- Team 2 player B serves. When the other team wins, go to rule 6.
- Team 1 player A serves. When the other team wins, go to rule 3.
- Repeat rules 3-6 until either team gets to 11 points.
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Actually, that's not quite right. You need to move item 3 down to item 6, and change the "go to rule" numbers accordingly. This used to be how badminton doubles was played back before it switched to "every rally scored a point" rules. The side that serves first loses the serve when the other team wins - then it's two losses per side.
Edit: I could have sworn the original post said that both team A players serve, then both team B players serve. Wizard has it right.
Last edited by: ThatDonGuy on Dec 3, 2024
December 3rd, 2024 at 7:03:29 PM
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FYI in Pickleball the team that starts off the game, only one person gets to serve before it gets passed off to the other side. I assumed this was meant to minimize the advantage.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
December 3rd, 2024 at 7:40:00 PM
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With no affirmative replies so far, I'll just say that I believe team B has the advantage.
I welcome challenges to my figure above.
0.476816269
I welcome challenges to my figure above.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
