White Elephant Strategy
Poll
 | 3 votes (75%) | ||
| | 1 vote (25%) | ||
| | 1 vote (25%) | ||
| No votes (0%) | |||
| | 2 votes (50%) | ||
| | 2 votes (50%) | ||
| No votes (0%) | |||
| | 1 vote (25%) | ||
| | 1 vote (25%) | ||
| | 1 vote (25%) |
4 members have voted
November 19th, 2024 at 12:24:24 PM
permalink
Is it too early to say the C word? No, not that one, I meant Christmas.
A popular thing to do at Christmas parties is a White Elephant gift exchange. Here are the rules.
Here is a scene from The Office, where a normal gift exchange was switched to a White Elephant.
Direct: https://youtu.be/19ulSNSRKyU?si=n1oAeHt0RoM71_bq
Assume you are playing and your goal is to maximize the value of your final gift. You have no information about unopened gifts other than you can use what was already opened to determine an estimate of the average value.
The question is what is the optimal strategy? I'll put in spoiler tags what I think it is.
The question for the poll is what do you call this game? Multiple votes allowed.
A popular thing to do at Christmas parties is a White Elephant gift exchange. Here are the rules.
- Everyone brings a wrapped gift with a suggested value. For example $20.
- Player draw numbers to determine their turn.
- Player 1 picks a wrapped gift and opens it.
- Player 2 may steal player 1's gift or choose a wrapped gift and open it. If player 2 steals player 1's gift, then player 1 would choose a wrapped gift.
- Player 3 may steal the gift of player 1 or 2 or a wrapped gift.
- If at any time somebody's gift it stolen that person may steal another gift or chose a wrapped one.
- No gift may be stolen twice in the same turn.
- This process keeps going until everybody has had a turn.
Here is a scene from The Office, where a normal gift exchange was switched to a White Elephant.
Direct: https://youtu.be/19ulSNSRKyU?si=n1oAeHt0RoM71_bq
Assume you are playing and your goal is to maximize the value of your final gift. You have no information about unopened gifts other than you can use what was already opened to determine an estimate of the average value.
The question is what is the optimal strategy? I'll put in spoiler tags what I think it is.
Simply always steal the best gift available, as long as it is better than average. Otherwise, if your only choices are below average, choose a wrapped gift.
The question for the poll is what do you call this game? Multiple votes allowed.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 19th, 2024 at 1:02:19 PM
permalink
I just put up my Christmas decorations, including the "Days 'til Christmas" blocks, and it's 36 days 'til Christmas!
November 19th, 2024 at 1:51:44 PM
permalink
Quote: Wizard
Player draw numbers to determine their turn.
link to original post
Other than replacing the drawing of lots with a euchre tournament, this is almost identical to next month's family potluck get-together.
Is my chance of holding a high value prize at the end better if I pick the second-best unwrapped prize, instead of the best unwrapped prize?
I'm assuming that my fellow contestants are logicians, and not my random-picking knucklehead in-laws.
I'm assuming that my fellow contestants are logicians, and not my random-picking knucklehead in-laws.
May the cards fall in your favor.
November 19th, 2024 at 2:51:45 PM
permalink
I do a simple version with my three grand-nieces overseas. They roll a die and high number goes first, low number goes last, but if there is a tie for high number, the low number goes first.
The first pick chooses an envelope and opens it to reveal a dollar number. The second can take the money from #1 or pick a envelope but not open it. The third can take the cash, take #2's envelope, or take the third. After she chooses, #1 has a choice of keeping the cash or switching with either envelope. Some years, it is two $25 and a $50, but sometimes it is two $50s and a $25.
They used to send me a video, but we have done it live in the last few years.
The first pick chooses an envelope and opens it to reveal a dollar number. The second can take the money from #1 or pick a envelope but not open it. The third can take the cash, take #2's envelope, or take the third. After she chooses, #1 has a choice of keeping the cash or switching with either envelope. Some years, it is two $25 and a $50, but sometimes it is two $50s and a $25.
They used to send me a video, but we have done it live in the last few years.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
November 19th, 2024 at 3:35:01 PM
permalink
My White Elephant rules always include one final rule:
Players may make deals among themselves, and/or hold grudges against other players for taking the gift that they wanted.
This goes on for as long as anyone can hold a grudge.
After all, why should this White Elephant be different from any other?
Suppose there are three players left. The player after you will take your gift, in which case, you would take the second-best gift.
The next player after that takes the best gift; the player who had it takes your gift; you now take the third-best gift.
The final player then takes the best gift; the player who had it takes the second-best gift; that player takes your gift; you now take the fourth-best gift.
You will end up with the fourth-best gift; if that was less than the average, you should have taken a wrapped one.
I think the strategy is, if there are N players remaining after you, and the (N+1)st best gift is below the average, take a wrapped gift; otherwise, take the best gift.
But don't forget about my "end of the game" rule - metagaming is a thing.
Players may make deals among themselves, and/or hold grudges against other players for taking the gift that they wanted.
This goes on for as long as anyone can hold a grudge.
After all, why should this White Elephant be different from any other?
Quote: WizardAssume you are playing and your goal is to maximize the value of your final gift. You have no information about unopened gifts other than you can use what was already opened to determine an estimate of the average value.
The question is what is the optimal strategy? I'll put in spoiler tags what I think it is.Simply always steal the best gift available, as long as it is better than average. Otherwise, if your only choices are below average, choose a wrapped gift.
link to original post
Suppose there are three players left. The player after you will take your gift, in which case, you would take the second-best gift.
The next player after that takes the best gift; the player who had it takes your gift; you now take the third-best gift.
The final player then takes the best gift; the player who had it takes the second-best gift; that player takes your gift; you now take the fourth-best gift.
You will end up with the fourth-best gift; if that was less than the average, you should have taken a wrapped one.
I think the strategy is, if there are N players remaining after you, and the (N+1)st best gift is below the average, take a wrapped gift; otherwise, take the best gift.
But don't forget about my "end of the game" rule - metagaming is a thing.
December 3rd, 2024 at 2:52:15 PM
permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy
Suppose there are three players left. The player after you will take your gift, in which case, you would take the second-best gift.
The next player after that takes the best gift; the player who had it takes your gift; you now take the third-best gift.
The final player then takes the best gift; the player who had it takes the second-best gift; that player takes your gift; you now take the fourth-best gift.
You will end up with the fourth-best gift; if that was less than the average, you should have taken a wrapped one.
I think the strategy is, if there are N players remaining after you, and the (N+1)st best gift is below the average, take a wrapped gift; otherwise, take the best gift.
But don't forget about my "end of the game" rule - metagaming is a thing.
link to original post
I'm going to reply outside of spoiler tags, since it seems to be just us.
If you take a random gift and it is better than the 4th by that point, won't it get stolen by one of the last three players? Keep in mind you don't know what the final average will be at the time of your turn.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
