Byakuya6
• Posts: 3
Joined: Mar 23, 2023
March 23rd, 2023 at 10:50:00 PM permalink
I need some help with slot machine math. On the Monty Python Holy Grail slot machine, there is a bonus round. In this challenge, if you get the Holy Grail on the 3rd reel out of 5, it activates a bonus round opportunity to win the jackpot.

The prizes are as follows: 3 squares for Mini, 4 squares for Minor, 5 squares for Major, 5 squares for Maxi, and 7 squares for the Jackpot: The Holy Grail.

You have to pick and choose between 24 different squares.

Could somebody please tell me the odds of winning each award in the bonus round?

So far, I have hit mini a handful of times, and the minor only once.
ChesterDog
• Posts: 1612
Joined: Jul 26, 2010
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March 24th, 2023 at 8:48:46 AM permalink
Quote: Byakuya6

I need some help with slot machine math. On the Monty Python Holy Grail slot machine, there is a bonus round. In this challenge, if you get the Holy Grail on the 3rd reel out of 5, it activates a bonus round opportunity to win the jackpot.

The prizes are as follows: 3 squares for Mini, 4 squares for Minor, 5 squares for Major, 5 squares for Maxi, and 7 squares for the Jackpot: The Holy Grail.

You have to pick and choose between 24 different squares.

Could somebody please tell me the odds of winning each award in the bonus round?

So far, I have hit mini a handful of times, and the minor only once.

I understand that to win the Mini you must reveal a third Mini square before revealing a fourth Minor square, a fifth Major square, etc.

Using a simulation, I get these approximate probabilities:
Mini: 35%
Minor: 23.5%
Major: 16.25%
Maxi: 16.25%
Jackpot: 9%

Suppose you played the bonus five times. Based on the 35% probability for the Mini, the probability of getting the Mini four or more times would be only 5.4%.

I have read that the results of a lot of these picking games are predetermined. Perhaps as soon as the bonus game is triggered, the machine decides what your prize will be, and then as you choose squares, it reveals a pattern that corresponds to that prize.
ThatDonGuy
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Joined: Jun 22, 2011
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March 24th, 2023 at 9:05:16 AM permalink
Some number crunching gets:

Mini: 410,589 / 1,175,720, or about 34.922%
Minor: 52,375 / 223,839, or about 23.399%
Major: 40,861 / 248,976, or about 16.412%
Maxi: same as Major
Grail: 6,293 / 71,060, or about 8.856%
Byakuya6
• Posts: 3
Joined: Mar 23, 2023
March 24th, 2023 at 10:05:46 AM permalink
Fantastic analysis! Thank you for the precise numbers. I figured I had a string of bad luck with the bonus game.
Byakuya6
• Posts: 3
Joined: Mar 23, 2023
March 24th, 2023 at 10:06:24 AM permalink
I applaud you as well for your thorough analysis, and for rounding up the numbers. You have been very helpful.
Mental
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March 24th, 2023 at 10:07:58 AM permalink
Quote: ChesterDog

I have read that the results of a lot of these picking games are predetermined. Perhaps as soon as the bonus game is triggered, the machine decides what your prize will be, and then as you choose squares, it reveals a pattern that corresponds to that prize.

Unless the help screen specifically says the choices are not predetermined, you should assume that the choice feature is for entertainment purpose only. Sometimes the help screen will even say it is for entertainment purpose only.

If the help screen offers no assistance in determining the nature of the choice feature, you can often determine fairly quickly that it is not random through observation of a small number of bonus rounds. The Blood Suckers choice feature is not random. The first choice will always award some prize. After the first choice, you might choose an empty casket and the feature ends.

It can be very difficult to discriminate between truly random and almost truly random through observation.
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rsactuary
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March 24th, 2023 at 10:12:57 AM permalink
I would guarantee that the holy grail is not won once every 11 bonus games, which suggests it's predetermined. Like all of the asian themed slots.
ChesterDog
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Joined: Jul 26, 2010
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March 26th, 2023 at 10:13:56 PM permalink
Quote: Mental

Quote: ChesterDog

I have read that the results of a lot of these picking games are predetermined. Perhaps as soon as the bonus game is triggered, the machine decides what your prize will be, and then as you choose squares, it reveals a pattern that corresponds to that prize.