teliot
teliot
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BleedingChipsSlowlyMukke
September 21st, 2022 at 5:49:54 PM permalink
Every game has a custom program written to analyze it. I write my code in C, C++, JAVA, VBA and I have used third-party software to assist my computations, including Cactus Kev's fast poker hand evaluator. There is absolutely nothing off the shelf that does this. You have to write it all yourself. I've personally analyzed well over 300 table games and side bets with custom programs I've written, easily thousands of hours of programming. Slot machines require a spread sheet analysis and verification by a simulation. Video Poker has a few tricks, but it is also a complete cycle.

Simulations are useful to verify combinatorial results, aka running a cycle, but sometimes they are the only option. For example, in collusion computations, I mostly use simulations.

A complete combinatorial analysis means that I look at every possible situation that can occur in the game and account for it. This is absolutely the preferred method, and I use it for most games, even for advantage play methods like hole-carding and edge sorting. For card counting, I use simulation. Certain promotions have closed formulas that approximate the result, but it's also useful to simulate them, especially promotions like loss rebates.

For lame ideas like betting progressions, stop loss, and those who claim they can beat negative edges by some type of voodoo, I just tell the person the Earth is not flat and please go away.

Mike is pretty much the same, I doubt anything I've said above contradicts his own methodologies.
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MichaelBluejay
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teliot
September 21st, 2022 at 5:54:49 PM permalink
Well, since teliot is commenting, I should mention that I hired him twelve years ago to consult with me on that Java blackjack simulator that I just posted. I couldn't get it to return the right result, but he zeroed in on the problem quickly.
Talldude90
Talldude90
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September 21st, 2022 at 9:40:48 PM permalink
In the small amount I have done so far I have used Excel. You can get about 1 million results in about 3 seconds (including the paste value of the results into a table which then causes the sheet to re-calculate for another 1M results). If you have a gaming mouse or a more elegant solution you can have the paste values portion automated and the "program" continue to run on it's on at the cost of not being able to use that computer for ANYTHING else till you get the number of sims you want.

If you want the absolute fastest though you would use FORTRAN. It is still what the nuclear industry uses for Monte Carlo simulations and is afaik still the gold standard. Problem is the last time I messed with FORTRAN code was 11 years ago and i would basically have to re-learn it. I have some worry that it may be harder to code, but if it is the most efficient to run random events in a nuclear reactor model, it should be the most efficient in running random generators for gambling.

The most complicated thing i have done so far is craps, but if you are able to convert all the rules into code I don't see why it shouldn't be easy to sim anything you want in excel or any normal programming language.

Excel for Easy, FORTRAN for Fast.
Ace2
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September 21st, 2022 at 10:03:57 PM permalink
Quote: Talldude90


The most complicated thing i have done so far is craps, but if you are able to convert all the rules into code I don't see why it shouldn't be easy to sim anything you want in excel or any normal programming language.

Why would you need to program/simulate anything for craps? Those calculations are so easy you can do them in your head
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BleedingChipsSlowly
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September 22nd, 2022 at 2:05:08 AM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Why would you need to program/simulate anything for craps? Those calculations are so easy you can do them in your head
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Betting systems. I’ll get my coat…
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Talldude90
Talldude90
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September 22nd, 2022 at 4:54:09 AM permalink
True, I was having some issues with a calculation in roulette, and decided to code in craps to make sure I was doing things right in how I was using the random number generator. I don't know that I would want to do BJ though, seems like there are a lot of different cases that would be annoying to deal with.

Disclaimer, I totally believe no betting system can lower the HE. Doesn't mean I don't wanna play with sims ;) .

Edit (thanks aceside): The above disclaimer is only in relation to bets that don't have exploitable information (for example removal of cards to a discard pile or variable state games).
Last edited by: Talldude90 on Sep 22, 2022
aceside
aceside
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September 22nd, 2022 at 5:11:27 AM permalink
Quote: Talldude90

Disclaimer, I totally believe no betting system can lower the HE. Doesn't mean I don't wanna play with sims ;) .
link to original post


This is over stretched. In blackjack shoe games, you definitely need a betting system to beat this game.
teliot
teliot
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MichaelBluejay
September 22nd, 2022 at 5:13:57 AM permalink
Quote: Talldude90

In the small amount I have done so far I have used Excel. You can get about 1 million results in about 3 seconds (including the paste value of the results into a table which then causes the sheet to re-calculate for another 1M results). If you have a gaming mouse or a more elegant solution you can have the paste values portion automated and the "program" continue to run on it's on at the cost of not being able to use that computer for ANYTHING else till you get the number of sims you want.

If you want the absolute fastest though you would use FORTRAN. It is still what the nuclear industry uses for Monte Carlo simulations and is afaik still the gold standard. Problem is the last time I messed with FORTRAN code was 11 years ago and i would basically have to re-learn it. I have some worry that it may be harder to code, but if it is the most efficient to run random events in a nuclear reactor model, it should be the most efficient in running random generators for gambling.

The most complicated thing i have done so far is craps, but if you are able to convert all the rules into code I don't see why it shouldn't be easy to sim anything you want in excel or any normal programming language.

Excel for Easy, FORTRAN for Fast.
link to original post

The random number generator that comes with Excel (and is used in VBA) has a cycle of length 2^24 = 16,777,216, (as I recall), which makes VBA and Excel unusable for any large simulation of pretty much anything without programing your own RNG. Fortunately, strong long cycle RNGs are fairly easy to code.

Good on you for programming in Fortran, I used that up until about 1984 on punch cards. Sometime later I upleveled from punch cards to an ADM-5. That 300 BAUD modem was lightning fast.
Last edited by: teliot on Sep 22, 2022
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MichaelBluejay
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September 22nd, 2022 at 9:18:05 AM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Why would you need to program/simulate anything for craps? Those calculations are so easy you can do them in your head
link to original post

(1) Not all of us can do the calcs in our head, or even on paper. Some of us can code but aren't skilled in math.

(2) Disproving betting systems. Sure, the math-literate know the EV is total bets x the house edge of the bet, but that's not convincing to someone who thinks that varying bets can affect the EV. For them, a sim is required to actually *play* the game to show that the system fails. (Sure, some betting system believers won't accept even the results of a sim, because they think that computer-simmed results aren't the same as real-world results, but there's only so much you can do.) Here's one such sim I made to disprove a betting system suggested by a forum member here.

(3) For a given betting strategy (e.g. various bet sizes on various bets), you might want to find out things like the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, and 90th percentile results. Maybe that could be calculated, but it seems easier to code a sim.
DRich
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teliot
September 22nd, 2022 at 10:43:56 AM permalink
Quote: teliot



Good on you for programming in Fortran, I used that up until about 1984 on punch cards. Sometime later I upleveled from punch cards to an ADM-5. That 300 BAUD modem was lightning fast.



I learned to program in FORTRAN using punch cards on an old IBM 360 in the early 1980's. I also used it for a year or two doing medical image analysis on CAT scans and PET scans.
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