Ace2
Ace2
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MichaelBluejayaceside
September 20th, 2022 at 11:46:18 PM permalink
Another very easy way to simulate blackjack:

You have a 43% chance of winning each hand with a payoff of 1.31 to 1.

Edge of 67 bps, SD of 1.14. Plenty accurate for my calculations, which are usually figuring how much bankroll I need for a certain level/length of play
Itís all about making that GTA
MichaelBluejay
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aceside
September 20th, 2022 at 11:54:23 PM permalink
Quote: BleedingChipsSlowly

In general, based on the study, what takes 10 hours to run for C will take 17 hours for Java and 56 hours for Python.
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True, but my point was, six times slower could still be fast enough. Based on how fast my Java sim ran on my old computer and my new computer, and how fast my LiveCode sim ran on my old computer, I estimate that LiveCode could sim 1.5 million rounds per minute. That would be plenty for lots of applications. I suspect Javascript and Python would be even faster.

Quote: Ace2

Another very easy way to simulate blackjack:

You have a 43% chance of winning each hand with a payoff of 1.31 to 1.

Edge of 67 bps, SD of 1.14
link to original post

That's more like an estimation than a simulation. A true simulation lets you change parameters to test things. For example, my blackjack sim can be modified to do things like find the penalty for strategy deviations, or the efficacy of card-counting systems.
aceside
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September 21st, 2022 at 6:44:38 AM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Another very easy way to simulate blackjack:

You have a 43% chance of winning each hand with a payoff of 1.31 to 1.

Edge of 67 bps, SD of 1.14. Plenty accurate for my calculations, which are usually figuring how much bankroll I need for a certain level/length of play
link to original post


Iíve read this a few times but still donít understand what you are talking about.
What is this 1.31 to 1 payoff? It looks like you are talking about an expected win amount of 1.31 for each 1-unit-bet winning hand, but this number doesnít sound right.
Last edited by: aceside on Sep 21, 2022
BleedingChipsSlowly
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MichaelBluejay
September 21st, 2022 at 8:17:35 AM permalink
The expected win is 1.31 per 1 wagered for 43% of hands played. So (1.31 + 1) * 0.43 = 0.9933 expected value (EV) for a wager if one, a house edge of 0.67%.

A simulation of play would provide the information used in this calculation. As MichaelBluejay pointed out, the calculation is an application of the simulation information in the context of this thread.
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aceside
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MichaelBluejay
September 21st, 2022 at 8:46:47 AM permalink
Quote: BleedingChipsSlowly

The expected win is 1.31 per 1 wagered for 43% of hands played. So (1.31 + 1) * 0.43 = 0.9933 expected value (EV) for a wager if one, a house edge of 0.67%.

link to original post


I am confused here, but we need both the win rate and the loss rate to calculate the house edge. The win rate is 43%, the loss rate is 50%, and the tie rate is 7%. Let us set the expected win amount of each winning hand as x, then we have
50%*1 - 43%*x = 0.67%.

This gives x=1.15.
gordonm888
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MichaelBluejayKatrinaO
September 21st, 2022 at 10:36:44 AM permalink
Many of the Wizard's calculations use a looping code, not a random-number- generator-based simulator.

He loops through every possible combination of cards (once), accumulating statistical outcome information.
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BleedingChipsSlowly
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September 21st, 2022 at 10:56:11 AM permalink
Quote: aceside

Quote: BleedingChipsSlowly

The expected win is 1.31 per 1 wagered for 43% of hands played. So (1.31 + 1) * 0.43 = 0.9933 expected value (EV) for a wager if one, a house edge of 0.67%.

link to original post


I am confused here, but we need both the win rate and the loss rate to calculate the house edge. The win rate is 43%, the loss rate is 50%, and the tie rate is 7%. Let us set the expected win amount of each winning hand as x, then we have
50%*1 - 43%*x = 0.67%.

This gives x=1.15.
link to original post

Absent a specific mention of pushes, I went with the theory that pushes are classified as a win. The resulting 0.67% house edge is in line with 6:5 red chip tables and stadium games. I could be wrong. Perhaps Ace2 will clarify.
ďYou donít bring a bone saw to a negotiation.Ē - Robert Jordan, former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia
Ace2
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MichaelBluejayBleedingChipsSlowly
September 21st, 2022 at 11:47:04 AM permalink
There are no pushes for this bet. 43% chance you win 1.31 units, 57% chance you lose 1 unit

Such a bet is statistically congruent to blackjack. It will give you essentially the same results, variance and RoR as blackjack as long as your sample size is above about 100 hands. But itís much easier to do calculations for this simple bet since there is no splitting, doubling, pushes, blackjacks or surrendering.

Itís pretty easy to manually calculate the effect of many strategy deviations and then modify the 0.43 and 1.31 as needed. But that combination, giving and edge/SD of 0.67% / 1.14, is pretty accurate for most 3:2 games.

For strategy deviations, I always assume infinite deck which makes the calculations much easier. Iíve found that as long as more than two decks are being used, the infinite deck answer is within a couple basis points of the exact answer
Last edited by: Ace2 on Sep 21, 2022
Itís all about making that GTA
ChumpChange
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September 21st, 2022 at 11:58:51 AM permalink
So you just have to bet on the 43% of hands that actually win something. The other 57% can be skipped through mnemonic intrigue.
Ace2
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September 21st, 2022 at 12:04:02 PM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

So you just have to bet on the 43% of hands that actually win something. The other 57% can be skipped through mnemonic intrigue.
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Yep, just like craps. All you gotta do is turn off bets right before a 7 is rolled
Itís all about making that GTA

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