Dieter
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Dieter
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August 5th, 2022 at 3:31:50 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

I take it back. The game doesn’t make sense. You roll four of a kind just under 2% of the time. So you get paid 100:1 on a 50:1 shot? It would be +EV from the get go and the progressive shouldn’t build, it should drain from the 4OAKs.

What am
I missing?
link to original post



Dang.

Well... guess I need to go look for a pub. ;)

(I will not use any superpowers in furtherance of this effort. I also know that a common rule is 1 shake per day.)
May the cards fall in your favor.
gordonm888
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gordonm888
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August 5th, 2022 at 7:37:00 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

I take it back. The game doesn’t make sense. You roll four of a kind just under 2% of the time. So you get paid 100:1 on a 50:1 shot? It would be +EV from the get go and the progressive shouldn’t build, it should drain from the 4OAKs.

What am
I missing?
link to original post



My analysis agrees with unjon's posts. Perhaps something in the statement of the rules isn't accurate?.

Are we sure that any 4oak pays $100, and not just four 6s? Or, that the first 4 dice must be a 4oak?
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
camapl
camapl
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August 5th, 2022 at 10:52:34 AM permalink
Don’t the odds change the more you drink? That must be it, since you only see this game at bars!
* Actual results may vary.
charliepatrick
charliepatrick
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Thanks for this post from:
unJoncamaplDieter
August 6th, 2022 at 12:28:37 PM permalink
The maths sorts of works if you roll one die at a time and lose once you fail to get the recent roll to match.

The first roll is irrelevant. The second roll has to match the first roll to allow a third roll (P=1/6). The third roll has to match, else you lose. You earn a free roll (unless your fourth roll matches). (So the probability of this is 1/36 - 1/216 = 5/216, I have assumed you have the option of having your $1 returned for the break-even point.)

Fourth matching roll earns $100 (probability of this is 1 in 216, but you take off the probability of jackpot to give 5/1296) so this represents about 38.58c.

Fifth matching earns whatever (it shouldn't be more than $766, or about $900 if the bar tender get 15%, else positive for the player!)
EventProbabilityPaysContribution
3 not 4
.023148
$1
$0.02 315c
4 not 5
.003858
$100
$0.38 580c
5 jackpot
.000772
$901.18
$0.59 105c
$1.00 000c
unJon
unJon
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August 6th, 2022 at 1:24:38 PM permalink
Quote: charliepatrick

The maths sorts of works if you roll one die at a time and lose once you fail to get the recent roll to match.

The first roll is irrelevant. The second roll has to match the first roll to allow a third roll (P=1/6). The third roll has to match, else you lose. You earn a free roll (unless your fourth roll matches). (So the probability of this is 1/36 - 1/216 = 5/216, I have assumed you have the option of having your $1 returned for the break-even point.)

Fourth matching roll earns $100 (probability of this is 1 in 216, but you take off the probability of jackpot to give 5/1296) so this represents about 38.58c.

Fifth matching earns whatever (it shouldn't be more than $766, or about $900 if the bar tender get 15%, else positive for the player!)

EventProbabilityPaysContribution
3 not 4
.023148
$1
$0.02 315c
4 not 5
.003858
$100
$0.38 580c
5 jackpot
.000772
$901.18
$0.59 105c
$1.00 000c

link to original post



Excellent math sleuthing. You’ll get a more accurate result if instead of using $1 for 3OAK you just juice the probabilities of the 4OAK and 5OAK by the 102.3697%.

Basically the sum from n=1 to infinity of (5/216)^n.

ETA: oh I see, $1 for break even on 3OAK.
Last edited by: unJon on Aug 6, 2022
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
BillHasRetired
BillHasRetired
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August 6th, 2022 at 5:46:38 PM permalink
I don't think the original poster indicated that the dice were rolled one at a time, but all five were rolled at once. Not sure what effect it would have on your math, though.
charliepatrick
charliepatrick
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August 7th, 2022 at 9:34:27 AM permalink
Quote: BillHasRetired

I don't think the original poster indicated that the dice were rolled one at a time, but all five were rolled at once...

As others have already stated it would be in the Player's advantage if you could roll all five dice rather than one at a time. This is why I was trying to work out a scenario where the game might made sense. Sadly the OP hasn't got back with a clarification of the exact rules and payouts.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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Thanks for this post from:
unJon
August 7th, 2022 at 11:31:42 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

I take it back. The game doesn’t make sense. You roll four of a kind just under 2% of the time. So you get paid 100:1 on a 50:1 shot? It would be +EV from the get go and the progressive shouldn’t build, it should drain from the 4OAKs.

What am
I missing?
link to original post



You are missing the address of the pub! And yes, that is Axel at the end of the bar rolling the dice….
Dieter
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Dieter
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August 7th, 2022 at 12:40:17 PM permalink
Quote: charliepatrick

Quote: BillHasRetired

I don't think the original poster indicated that the dice were rolled one at a time, but all five were rolled at once...

As others have already stated it would be in the Player's advantage if you could roll all five dice rather than one at a time. This is why I was trying to work out a scenario where the game might made sense. Sadly the OP hasn't got back with a clarification of the exact rules and payouts.
link to original post



1. I think you get to play once a day.
2. I think you have to buy a drink to be allowed to play.

The game may be positive, but I don't think it's profitable to the player.
That said, if you're down at the bar anyway...
May the cards fall in your favor.
Dieter
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Dieter
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August 7th, 2022 at 12:40:25 PM permalink
Quote: charliepatrick

Quote: BillHasRetired

I don't think the original poster indicated that the dice were rolled one at a time, but all five were rolled at once...

As others have already stated it would be in the Player's advantage if you could roll all five dice rather than one at a time. This is why I was trying to work out a scenario where the game might made sense. Sadly the OP hasn't got back with a clarification of the exact rules and payouts.
link to original post



1. I think you get to play once a day.
2. I think you have to buy a drink to be allowed to play.

The game may be positive, but I don't think it's profitable to the player.
That said, if you're down at the bar anyway...
May the cards fall in your favor.

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