sunset
sunset
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February 13th, 2022 at 4:07:08 AM permalink
If I knew my first card was going to be an Ace (dealer accidental exposure) before I bet.
How much of an advantage is that?
New shoe double deck, so running count is 0.
OnceDear
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February 13th, 2022 at 5:47:08 AM permalink
Quote: sunset

If I knew my first card was going to be an Ace (dealer accidental exposure) before I bet.
How much of an advantage is that?
New shoe double deck, so running count is 0.
link to original post

I can't be bothered to calculate it, but it's enormous. Bet the farm. (OK. not really, but I'd go with half of whatever the session bankroll you had at that time. Allowing for if you are unlucky enough to get another ace. You'd be a bit unlucky to get 3 aces $:o)

I once had a dealer reveal the first 3 cards in a heads up game. I had Ace Ace against his 8. Back then, I was too timid. In hindsight, I should have bet the farm on the Perfect Pairs sidebet.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/blackjack/20800-dealer-error-an-unusual-ap-opportunity-advice-and-comments-please/
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
mcallister3200
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February 13th, 2022 at 5:58:39 AM permalink
I could be misremembering but I believe the edge is somewhere around 52-53% and the Kelly bet 42.08%. So, around 1/3 of your farm, or at least the portions of the farm that are on the table up to table max.
DRich
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February 13th, 2022 at 6:08:43 AM permalink
Quote: mcallister3200

I could be misremembering but I believe the edge is somewhere around 52-53% and the Kelly bet 42.08%. So, around 1/3 of your farm, or at least the portions of the farm that are on the table up to table max.
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I remember when the San Remo opened they were offering some free Ace coupons for BJ and they didn't limit the amount you could bet. Basically you could bet table max. If I remember correctly it lasted many days and maybe even a week
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
sunset
sunset
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February 13th, 2022 at 6:36:49 AM permalink
Thanks! While under the gun and having to decide quickly, I just wasn't sure what to do.
My thoughts were, this has to be a big advantage, so I should raise...
but it is one of the few places that I play rated, so I didn't want to raise suspicion.
I placed my normal max bet...ended up winning the hand (but not a blackjack).
Thanks for responding!
charliepatrick
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February 13th, 2022 at 6:51:06 AM permalink
See here - https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/blackjack/36893-9up-sidebet/#post840231 - where the advantage of an Ace is discussed. The EV for an Ace (UK rules) was about +37% for UK rules.
sunset
sunset
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charliepatrick
February 13th, 2022 at 6:53:42 AM permalink
Excellent
Thank you charliepatrick!
ksdjdj
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February 13th, 2022 at 12:01:23 PM permalink
Value_of_an_Ace_Infinite_Deck
teliot
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February 13th, 2022 at 12:04:44 PM permalink
My article "An Ace or Ten in the Hand" covers this question.

https://www.888casino.com/blog/blackjack-tips/blackjack-an-ace-or-ten-in-the-hand
Climate Casino: https://climatecasino.net/climate-casino/
charliepatrick
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ksdjdjHunterhill
February 13th, 2022 at 2:10:39 PM permalink
^ ^^ Thanks - I forgot to add the EV on the game I referenced includes the 20% fee you pay for non-BJ hands, hence why that 37% is much lower than the (about) 50% being quoted.
ksdjdj
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February 13th, 2022 at 2:43:50 PM permalink
Quote: sunset

Thanks! While under the gun and having to decide quickly, I just wasn't sure what to do.
My thoughts were, this has to be a big advantage, so I should raise...
but it is one of the few places that I play rated, so I didn't want to raise suspicion.
I placed my normal max bet...ended up winning the hand (but not a blackjack).
Thanks for responding!
link to original post


If it ever happens again the best play is to "table max" or bet the "entire funds you have on you" or "whatever you can afford to lose" (whatever is less).
Doing it this way you have at least a 48% EV for a "6-deck and stand on soft 17 game".

This will cost you on potential doubles and splits, but from a "$ EV point of view", it is better to get up to "100% Table Max" down, than to worry about "playing bad basic strategy" roughly 1/13 times.

If I haven't made any errors in working this out, then my examples below should also be correct:

Note: $1000 is the assumed "table max" or "the max bet that you can afford to lose" for these examples.

Example 1 (allowed to split aces once): If you can only bet in whole dollars, it is better for your "long-term $ EV" to bet $1000 if you have less than $1910 available, otherwise bet $955 (so that you have enough to double or split, if that is the best play)

Example 2 (allowed to split aces twice) :.. it is better for your "long-term $ EV" to bet $1000 if you have less than $1880 available, otherwise bet $940 (so that you have enough to double or split, if that is the best play).

Example 3 (allowed to split aces thrice) :.. it is better for your "long-term $ EV" to bet $1000 if you have less than $1876 available, otherwise bet $938 (so that you have enough to double or split, if that is the best play).

Quote:

(snip) it is one of the few places that I play rated, so I didn't want to raise suspicion. (snip)


Reminder: This post was only from a "to maximize $ EV" point of view.
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