seven
seven
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Joined: Oct 1, 2013
November 1st, 2021 at 1:47:37 AM permalink
I need your help again :) any help and answer is very much appreciated

what are the chances for a user to win for this kind of game?

I want to offer the “how many sweets are in a jar” in a different way. please let me explain

I will present 2 jars covered with a sack
one big jar and one small jar. One big sample jar without a sack will be shown to get the idea.
the picture I gave is just a sample picture for the users to see the sweets which I will use but both jars will be covered with a sack


Each round I will fill the jars with different amount of sweets. Users cannot see the sweets as it is covered with the sack.
Actually it is blind guessing but the minimum and maximum amounts for each jar are known

the minimum in the big jar will be 500 and maximum 1400

the minimum in the small jar will be 150 sweets and maximum 450

the first jar will be the big one and the 2nd jar the small one

the user needs to guess how may sweets are in the jars in the following way. First they need to guess for the big jar and 2nd for the small jar. Sample guess would look like 987/433

so the order of numbers does matter and same numbers can be chosen

I hope I could explain the game idea understandable. in case that not please ask whatever you need.

cheers and stay safe guys
Last edited by: seven on Nov 1, 2021
OnceDear
OnceDear
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November 1st, 2021 at 2:42:49 AM permalink
Quote: seven

I need your help again :) any help and answer is very much appreciated

what are the chances for a user to win for this kind of game?

I want to offer the “how many sweets are in a jar” in a different way. please let me explain

I will present 2 jars covered with a sack
one big jar and one small jar. One big sample jar without a sack will be shown to get the idea.


Each round I will fill the jars with different amount of sweets. Users cannot see the sweets as it is covered with the sack.
Actually it is blind guessing but the minimum and maximum amounts for each jar are known

the minimum in the big jar will be 500 and maximum 1400

the minimum in the small jar will be 150 sweets and maximum 450

the first jar will be the big one and the 2nd jar the small one

the user needs to guess how may sweets are in the jars in the following way. First they need to guess for the big jar and 2nd for the small jar. Sample guess would look like 987/433

so the order of numbers does matter and same numbers can be chosen

I hope I could explain the game idea understandable. in case that not please ask whatever you need.

cheers and stay safe guys
link to original post

So do you let the player know the minimums and maximums? Will the jars be full? Will the user be allowed to handle the jars?
The two parts of the answer will have some covariance where the ratio might approximate to the ratio of volumes of the jars.
If the count in a jar is a random value with equal probability, then you have
901 potential values x 301 values giving 271201 possible answers so 1 in 271201
But, each jar might hold a value that fits a binomial distribution. with midpoint values 950/300 So expect a cluster of guesses in that range. Unless you are sneaky, probability will be far higher than 1 in 271201, The maths is beyond me, but someone will be along soon. My finger in the air answer about 1 in 2000.

You'll get three types of players:-
Blind guessers: With no idea of the math of geometry.
Estimators: who will estimate the volume of the jar, volume of a candy and estimate of air space.
Candy experts: Who might work in a candy store or might experiment by buying some candies and jars.
Oh.... and candy counters
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
seven
seven
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Joined: Oct 1, 2013
November 1st, 2021 at 3:08:09 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear


So do you let the player know the minimums and maximums? Will the jars be full? Will the user be allowed to handle the jars?
The two parts of the answer will have some covariance where the ratio might approximate to the ratio of volumes of the jars.
If the count in a jar is a random value with equal probability, then you have
901 potential values x 301 values giving 271201 possible answers so 1 in 271201
But, each jar might hold a value that fits a binomial distribution. with midpoint values 950/300 So expect a cluster of guesses in that range. Unless you are sneaky, probability will be far higher than 1 in 271201, The maths is beyond me, but someone will be along soon. My finger in the air answer about 1 in 2000.

You'll get three types of players:-
Blind guessers: With no idea of the math of geometry.
Estimators: who will estimate the volume of the jar, volume of a candy and estimate of air space.
Candy experts: Who might work in a candy store or might experiment by buying some candies and jars.
Oh.... and candy counters
link to original post



thank you very much for your answer and questions

yes I will let players know the minimum and maximum! the jars will be different in size but the min and max are known for each jar

the jars will not be full and randomly filled!

users cannot handle or touch the jars as it will be an online game (maybe on youtube as a live stream)

cheers and stay safe
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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Joined: Aug 8, 2010
November 1st, 2021 at 8:00:58 AM permalink
Quote: seven

Quote: OnceDear


So do you let the player know the minimums and maximums? Will the jars be full? Will the user be allowed to handle the jars?
The two parts of the answer will have some covariance where the ratio might approximate to the ratio of volumes of the jars.
If the count in a jar is a random value with equal probability, then you have
901 potential values x 301 values giving 271201 possible answers so 1 in 271201
But, each jar might hold a value that fits a binomial distribution. with midpoint values 950/300 So expect a cluster of guesses in that range. Unless you are sneaky, probability will be far higher than 1 in 271201, The maths is beyond me, but someone will be along soon. My finger in the air answer about 1 in 2000.

You'll get three types of players:-
Blind guessers: With no idea of the math of geometry.
Estimators: who will estimate the volume of the jar, volume of a candy and estimate of air space.
Candy experts: Who might work in a candy store or might experiment by buying some candies and jars.
Oh.... and candy counters
link to original post



thank you very much for your answer and questions

yes I will let players know the minimum and maximum! the jars will be different in size but the min and max are known for each jar

the jars will not be full and randomly filled!

users cannot handle or touch the jars as it will be an online game (maybe on youtube as a live stream)

cheers and stay safe
link to original post



Unless you are using a RNG to select a number between 150 and 450 inclusive, and also using a RNG to select a number between 500 and 1400 inclusive, I doubt you are actually ‘randomly’ filling it.

Take the smaller jar as an example. A human ‘randomly’ filling it will be concerned it is under filled and will be highly unlikely to be close to 150, and as well will be unlikely to approach the 450 number.

If you use a real RNG, not a human, then the chance of success for any single guess would be one out of 301 x 901, or around 1 out of 271,000.
unJon
unJon
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November 1st, 2021 at 8:12:13 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: seven

Quote: OnceDear


So do you let the player know the minimums and maximums? Will the jars be full? Will the user be allowed to handle the jars?
The two parts of the answer will have some covariance where the ratio might approximate to the ratio of volumes of the jars.
If the count in a jar is a random value with equal probability, then you have
901 potential values x 301 values giving 271201 possible answers so 1 in 271201
But, each jar might hold a value that fits a binomial distribution. with midpoint values 950/300 So expect a cluster of guesses in that range. Unless you are sneaky, probability will be far higher than 1 in 271201, The maths is beyond me, but someone will be along soon. My finger in the air answer about 1 in 2000.

You'll get three types of players:-
Blind guessers: With no idea of the math of geometry.
Estimators: who will estimate the volume of the jar, volume of a candy and estimate of air space.
Candy experts: Who might work in a candy store or might experiment by buying some candies and jars.
Oh.... and candy counters
link to original post



thank you very much for your answer and questions

yes I will let players know the minimum and maximum! the jars will be different in size but the min and max are known for each jar

the jars will not be full and randomly filled!

users cannot handle or touch the jars as it will be an online game (maybe on youtube as a live stream)

cheers and stay safe
link to original post



Unless you are using a RNG to select a number between 150 and 450 inclusive, and also using a RNG to select a number between 500 and 1400 inclusive, I doubt you are actually ‘randomly’ filling it.

Take the smaller jar as an example. A human ‘randomly’ filling it will be concerned it is under filled and will be highly unlikely to be close to 150, and as well will be unlikely to approach the 450 number.

If you use a real RNG, not a human, then the chance of success for any single guess would be one out of 301 x 901, or around 1 out of 271,000.
link to original post



It’s not a random guess for the big jar. You can see inside it so can guesstimate it down to a much smaller range than 901.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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November 1st, 2021 at 8:27:43 AM permalink
I assume that "win" requires that both numbers be correct, and the number of sweets in a jar has an equal chance of being any number between the jar's minimum and maximum. (For example, the small jar is just as likely to have 150, 151, 152, ..., 449, or 450 sweets.)

In this case, any of the 901 numbers for the big jar can be correct, and any of the 301 for the small jar can be correct, so the probability of winning is 1 / (901 x 301) = 1 / 271,201. The visible jar is irrelevant, as you have no visible reference for the two jars in the sack.
seven
seven
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Joined: Oct 1, 2013
November 1st, 2021 at 9:47:02 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: seven

Quote: OnceDear


So do you let the player know the minimums and maximums? Will the jars be full? Will the user be allowed to handle the jars?
The two parts of the answer will have some covariance where the ratio might approximate to the ratio of volumes of the jars.
If the count in a jar is a random value with equal probability, then you have
901 potential values x 301 values giving 271201 possible answers so 1 in 271201
But, each jar might hold a value that fits a binomial distribution. with midpoint values 950/300 So expect a cluster of guesses in that range. Unless you are sneaky, probability will be far higher than 1 in 271201, The maths is beyond me, but someone will be along soon. My finger in the air answer about 1 in 2000.

You'll get three types of players:-
Blind guessers: With no idea of the math of geometry.
Estimators: who will estimate the volume of the jar, volume of a candy and estimate of air space.
Candy experts: Who might work in a candy store or might experiment by buying some candies and jars.
Oh.... and candy counters
link to original post



thank you very much for your answer and questions

yes I will let players know the minimum and maximum! the jars will be different in size but the min and max are known for each jar

the jars will not be full and randomly filled!

users cannot handle or touch the jars as it will be an online game (maybe on youtube as a live stream)

cheers and stay safe
link to original post



Unless you are using a RNG to select a number between 150 and 450 inclusive, and also using a RNG to select a number between 500 and 1400 inclusive, I doubt you are actually ‘randomly’ filling it.

Take the smaller jar as an example. A human ‘randomly’ filling it will be concerned it is under filled and will be highly unlikely to be close to 150, and as well will be unlikely to approach the 450 number.

If you use a real RNG, not a human, then the chance of success for any single guess would be one out of 301 x 901, or around 1 out of 271,000.
link to original post



It’s not a random guess for the big jar. You can see inside it so can guesstimate it down to a much smaller range than 901.
link to original post



sorry for the confusion and I will edit the 1st posting

both jars will be covered with a sack. the sample picture I gave and will give to users is just to see what sweets I am talking about.

cheers
seven
seven
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Joined: Oct 1, 2013
November 1st, 2021 at 9:52:13 AM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

I assume that "win" requires that both numbers be correct, and the number of sweets in a jar has an equal chance of being any number between the jar's minimum and maximum. (For example, the small jar is just as likely to have 150, 151, 152, ..., 449, or 450 sweets.)

In this case, any of the 901 numbers for the big jar can be correct, and any of the 301 for the small jar can be correct, so the probability of winning is 1 / (901 x 301) = 1 / 271,201. The visible jar is irrelevant, as you have no visible reference for the two jars in the sack.
link to original post



yes very good assumed. both numbers need to be correct and order of numbers does matter and both numbers can be same. the picture I gave is just a sample picture for the users to see the sweets which I will use but both jars will be covered with a sack. thank you for the answer.

cheers
seven
seven
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Joined: Oct 1, 2013
November 1st, 2021 at 10:09:49 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: seven

Quote: OnceDear


So do you let the player know the minimums and maximums? Will the jars be full? Will the user be allowed to handle the jars?
The two parts of the answer will have some covariance where the ratio might approximate to the ratio of volumes of the jars.
If the count in a jar is a random value with equal probability, then you have
901 potential values x 301 values giving 271201 possible answers so 1 in 271201
But, each jar might hold a value that fits a binomial distribution. with midpoint values 950/300 So expect a cluster of guesses in that range. Unless you are sneaky, probability will be far higher than 1 in 271201, The maths is beyond me, but someone will be along soon. My finger in the air answer about 1 in 2000.

You'll get three types of players:-
Blind guessers: With no idea of the math of geometry.
Estimators: who will estimate the volume of the jar, volume of a candy and estimate of air space.
Candy experts: Who might work in a candy store or might experiment by buying some candies and jars.
Oh.... and candy counters
link to original post



thank you very much for your answer and questions

yes I will let players know the minimum and maximum! the jars will be different in size but the min and max are known for each jar

the jars will not be full and randomly filled!

users cannot handle or touch the jars as it will be an online game (maybe on youtube as a live stream)

cheers and stay safe
link to original post



Unless you are using a RNG to select a number between 150 and 450 inclusive, and also using a RNG to select a number between 500 and 1400 inclusive, I doubt you are actually ‘randomly’ filling it.

Take the smaller jar as an example. A human ‘randomly’ filling it will be concerned it is under filled and will be highly unlikely to be close to 150, and as well will be unlikely to approach the 450 number.

If you use a real RNG, not a human, then the chance of success for any single guess would be one out of 301 x 901, or around 1 out of 271,000.
link to original post



very legit question and doubt :)
you will not be the only one. I thought about as even I will use a RNG users might say "hey why should I trust you"
but as I don't ask for any money/fee to give the guess I want to see where to the game will lead.

thanks
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