BJ tournament EV
December 22nd, 2019 at 11:36:30 AM
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Hey everyone,
This is something I should be able to figure out but for some reason I still feel like I’m missing something.
My local casino has BJ tournaments every week, with a $50 buy in, and prize depending on the number of players. Dealing is CSM, so we’re talking basic strategy.
I’m trying to calculate how much of an edge I would need over the other players (or in other words how much worse the others have to play) and how much the prize should be to make it a +EV move.
Any help would be appreciated,
Thanks
This is something I should be able to figure out but for some reason I still feel like I’m missing something.
My local casino has BJ tournaments every week, with a $50 buy in, and prize depending on the number of players. Dealing is CSM, so we’re talking basic strategy.
I’m trying to calculate how much of an edge I would need over the other players (or in other words how much worse the others have to play) and how much the prize should be to make it a +EV move.
Any help would be appreciated,
Thanks
December 22nd, 2019 at 2:10:19 PM
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This post doesn't answer your question about "...how much the prize should be to make it a +EV move" as I don't play BJ tournaments and don't know the answer anyway, but I think the links below are quite useful (especially if you are just starting*** out).
***: I don't know what level of tournament player you are (since you didn't say in the OP).
http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/Planyourplay.htm
http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/casino-tournament-strategy.htm
http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/wong.htm
http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/Selfstyled.htm
https://www.blackjackinfo.com/blackjack-tournaments/tournament-strategy-basics/
https://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/blackjack/
for the WoO link, the 2nd "ask the wizard" question on that page is the one about BJ tournaments.
Lastly, I am sorry that I didn't answer your question(s), but hope these links are helpful.
***: I don't know what level of tournament player you are (since you didn't say in the OP).
http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/Planyourplay.htm
http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/casino-tournament-strategy.htm
http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/wong.htm
http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/Selfstyled.htm
https://www.blackjackinfo.com/blackjack-tournaments/tournament-strategy-basics/
https://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/blackjack/
for the WoO link, the 2nd "ask the wizard" question on that page is the one about BJ tournaments.
Lastly, I am sorry that I didn't answer your question(s), but hope these links are helpful.
December 22nd, 2019 at 2:13:57 PM
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Do not play basic strategy to win a BJ tournament.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
December 22nd, 2019 at 2:26:43 PM
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Why not? If everyone else plays crappy strategies with -20% disadvantages (which they do here) that should give a nice edge over everybody, plus the fact that they are every week would build a decent long run, don't you think?
December 22nd, 2019 at 2:42:43 PM
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Quote: gunbjWhy not? If everyone else plays crappy strategies with -20% disadvantages (which they do here) that should give a nice edge over everybody, plus the fact that they are every week would build a decent long run, don't you think?
If you thought everyone else^^^ was playing at a 20% disadvantage, everyone bet the table/tournament minimum and it was only a "6 player tournament", then you would need a prize of $250+ for 1st place in an "all or nothing" type of tournament, to have +EV with a $50 buy-in.
Note: I know you didn't specify the type of tournament, or how many players, but this should help you in working out the "minimum prize payout" needed to get a +EV .
Note 2: if people are all betting different amounts in the tournament (very likely) then the estimate of " all players are at a 20% disadvantage" does not help you as much as if they were all "flat betting", IMO.
^^^ edit (about 307 pm): I meant to write "else" here, but didn't at first.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 22, 2019
December 22nd, 2019 at 2:46:49 PM
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Thank you for the info!
Although I have never played tournaments (I come from classic card counting), I have some basic knowledge of the strategies involved, which from what I could gather are mainly based on risk management and strategical play for the "short run" of a tournament OR they make us of counting to gain an edge over the other players (here it's CSM)
What I'm interested in would be more like building a long run, seeing that they have tournaments every week.
Am I right in saying that, in that case, deviating from BS and increasing the bets would only have the effect of losing more in the long run? If I keep bets to a minimum and play perfect BS I should be able to come out ahead most of the time? Or am I wrong?
Although I have never played tournaments (I come from classic card counting), I have some basic knowledge of the strategies involved, which from what I could gather are mainly based on risk management and strategical play for the "short run" of a tournament OR they make us of counting to gain an edge over the other players (here it's CSM)
What I'm interested in would be more like building a long run, seeing that they have tournaments every week.
Am I right in saying that, in that case, deviating from BS and increasing the bets would only have the effect of losing more in the long run? If I keep bets to a minimum and play perfect BS I should be able to come out ahead most of the time? Or am I wrong?
December 22nd, 2019 at 2:57:22 PM
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Yes, that is correct, and it's the part I'm struggling with.
Obviously everyone will change bets frequently so my idea was to calculate an "average bet" based on a range and frequency, and the resulting disadvantage they play at based on their strategy.
Of course their "average bet" will always be a higher number than my flat bet (table minimum), so that should give me an advantage (however small) even if they play closer to BS.
I was thinking of deriving a range of scenarios and then average everything out. After all it would be about the long run, so it would still make sense statistically, right?
Also, I still have to find out more about the rules and type of tournament, but from what I could gather it is "all or nothing" 1st place.
Obviously everyone will change bets frequently so my idea was to calculate an "average bet" based on a range and frequency, and the resulting disadvantage they play at based on their strategy.
Of course their "average bet" will always be a higher number than my flat bet (table minimum), so that should give me an advantage (however small) even if they play closer to BS.
I was thinking of deriving a range of scenarios and then average everything out. After all it would be about the long run, so it would still make sense statistically, right?
Also, I still have to find out more about the rules and type of tournament, but from what I could gather it is "all or nothing" 1st place.
December 22nd, 2019 at 2:57:33 PM
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Quote: gunbj
Am I right in saying that, in that case, deviating from BS and increasing the bets would only have the effect of losing more in the long run? If I keep bets to a minimum and play perfect BS I should be able to come out ahead most of the time? Or am I wrong?
You are wrong. There is plenty of information on BJ tournament strategies. Google it and learn.
This is a good starter book and it is available to read online or via kindle. https://www.amazon.com/Casino-Tournament-Strategy-Stanford-Wong/dp/0935926224
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
December 22nd, 2019 at 3:03:07 PM
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Quote: DRichYou are wrong. There is plenty of information on BJ tournament strategies. Google it and learn.
This is a good starter book and it is available to read online or via kindle. https://www.amazon.com/Casino-Tournament-Strategy-Stanford-Wong/dp/0935926224
I have not read the book and have limited knowledge about tournaments, but isn't Wong's strategy based on counting? We're talking CSM here. How would you deviate from BS with an advantage against a CSM?
December 22nd, 2019 at 3:04:41 PM
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Quote: gunbj
...Am I right in saying that, in that case, deviating from BS and increasing the bets would only have the effect of losing more in the long run? If I keep bets to a minimum and play perfect BS I should be able to come out ahead most of the time? Or am I wrong?
You are correct that you should generally "bet small" and play "BS", but the closer you get to the end of a tournament/round, the more you have to consider the points made in the links that I posted above in my 1st post/reply, and also the link below:
https://www.blackjackinfo.com/blackjack-tournaments/
Pretty much read every link on that page (from "introduction" to "double down probabilities".
If you google/search about tournament strategy, you will find that BS is important, but if you only follow it "blindly" you won't win any ^^^ tournaments.
^^^edit (about 6pm): changed from "many" to "any", because the chance is so small it is practically 0% (to win a tournament playing like this).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 22, 2019
December 22nd, 2019 at 3:08:41 PM
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Quote: gunbjI have not read the book and have limited knowledge about tournaments, but isn't Wong's strategy based on counting? We're talking CSM here. How would you deviate from BS with an advantage against a CSM?
You should read the book today and come back with questions tomorrow when you have finished the BJ sections. Very good tournament strategy and no it is not based on counting.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
December 22nd, 2019 at 3:17:38 PM
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As tournament play is different, if you have been observing the other players and think they are playing at about "20% disadvantage (on average)", you must ask yourself: "do they seem to deviate from BS the most, near the end of the round/tournament"?
If the answer is yes, then they are probably playing better than "20% disadvantage" and may even be playing the "optimal/near optimal play" from a "tournament strategy" POV.
update (about 320 pm): DRich is correct, you should purchase the book he suggested, before you start playing / asking anymore questions, as it probably answers a lot of them (?)
If the answer is yes, then they are probably playing better than "20% disadvantage" and may even be playing the "optimal/near optimal play" from a "tournament strategy" POV.
update (about 320 pm): DRich is correct, you should purchase the book he suggested, before you start playing / asking anymore questions, as it probably answers a lot of them (?)
December 22nd, 2019 at 3:23:34 PM
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Quote: gunbjI have not read the book and have limited knowledge about tournaments, but isn't Wong's strategy based on counting? We're talking CSM here. How would you deviate from BS with an advantage against a CSM?
You wouldn't have an advantage. But I'm going to give you some homework. Can you envision a situation where you would double down with a 16 versus a face card? I can.
December 22nd, 2019 at 3:26:00 PM
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Quote: SOOPOOYou wouldn't have an advantage. But I'm going to give you some homework. Can you envision a situation where you would double down with a 16 versus a face card? I can.
Or, hit or double an A9 against an A? I can.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
December 22nd, 2019 at 5:46:38 PM
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Quote: ksdjdj(snip)
http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/Selfstyled.htm
(snip)
The article in the above link is probably the "best free one" out there (out of all the ones that I posted in my original reply) to explain why "BJ tournaments" should not be played by only using "conventional BJ strategies" (like counting cards, hole-carding etc).
Note: I know that your game is out of a CSM, but most of the article is still relevant.
Also, you should play each tournament with a "short-term strategy", because as far as I know you don't get to keep your chips between tournaments (so a good "long-term strategy###" doesn't matter as much/ or at all, when compared to a good "short-term" one).
###: If you got a prize for the best "average placing" over the year, then yes you could probably play more conservatively (but I don't think any tournaments are like that, at least for BJ?).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Dec 22, 2019
December 22nd, 2019 at 11:23:41 PM
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Whatever they start you out at in tournament chips, quadruple it to win.
