Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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January 12th, 2019 at 9:36:40 PM permalink
Scenario: you were offered a deal by a sports book that gives you money back if the team you back "are ahead at the end of any of the first 3 quarters and then go on to lose the game"

You found out that "in the last 1500 games played, 500 teams were ahead at the end of quarter 1, 2 or 3, and then went on to lose".

note: please assume that the 'historical average' is equal to the 'chance' of it happening in the future.
also note: You have NOT analyzed the pre-game odds for any of the last 1500 games played.

Odds offered are fair but there is a fixed House edge of 5%:
example 1: if $1.90 is offered then the chance for that team to win is 50%
example 2: if $4.75 is offered then the chance for that team to win is 20%

If you could only back one team in each of the games below, which one would you pick, and why?

note: Answer the 'why' in terms of 'what the theoretical RTP is for your pick and what the RTP is for the other team', if possible.

Game 1: The $2.375 or / the $1.5833... team?
Game 2: $3.80 / $1.266... ?
Game 3: $9.50 / $1.0555... ?


I am posting these questions for 2 mains reasons,
1. to see if i was using the correct strategy and
2. because it seems like an interesting math problem, as well
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jan 12, 2019

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