August 13th, 2018 at 7:48:45 AM permalink
Assume you can accurately beat the spread on 60% of your NFL bets. Meaning, you guess the correct side of where the line will move and not actually winning 60%. Example: I bet Oakland at +5 and then they move to +3. And of course we know blindly betting achieves a 50% win rate. What is the new win rate???
August 13th, 2018 at 3:46:30 PM permalink
Please could someone close this as a duplicate of https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/31323-line-movement-math/#post667919