Probability of losing 62% decisive of 500 hands using Basic Strategy

I was playing Blackjack on Bovada and doing quite well and as soon as I started getting close to fulfilling the bonus rollover I go on this long losing streak. I figured it was just one of those bad streaks that you get in Blackjack but after 500 hands using Basic Strategy I had lost 61.40% of decisive hands. I know the Wizard calculated the percentage of losing hands at around 53.6%. Is there a way to calculate the probability of losing 307 out of 500 hands using basic Strategy? or Is 500 hands too small a sample? Thanks in advance for your reply!

Quote: elcaco

I was playing Blackjack on Bovada and doing quite well and as soon as I started getting close to fulfilling the bonus rollover I go on this long losing streak. I figured it was just one of those bad streaks that you get in Blackjack but after 500 hands using Basic Strategy I had lost 61.40% of decisive hands. I know the Wizard calculated the percentage of losing hands at around 53.6%. Is there a way to calculate the probability of losing 307 out of 500 hands using basic Strategy? or Is 500 hands too small a sample? Thanks in advance for your reply!

Without bothering to calculate it, I can tell you that your result is so normal as to be routine. Mildly bad luck --that's all.

I once lost seventeen max-bet hands in a row in one session. Blackjack is a cruel game.

Quote: elcaco

I was playing Blackjack on Bovada and doing quite well and as soon as I started getting close to fulfilling the bonus rollover I go on this long losing streak. I figured it was just one of those bad streaks that you get in Blackjack but after 500 hands using Basic Strategy I had lost 61.40% of decisive hands. I know the Wizard calculated the percentage of losing hands at around 53.6%. Is there a way to calculate the probability of losing 307 out of 500 hands using basic Strategy? or Is 500 hands too small a sample? Thanks in advance for your reply!

Sum of C(500,n) * 0.536ⁿ * 0.464^500-n
From n=307 to 500

Which equals 0.000259391
Or about 1 in 3855

I lost approximately 62 betting units on those 500 hands. Going by The Wizard's Risk of Ruin (Appendix 12), would it be fair to say that there's a 2% chance of having such a losing streak?