Kingdombunnies
Joined: Jun 13, 2016
• Posts: 7
June 13th, 2016 at 11:18:11 AM permalink
This is not my method. I saw this and found it quite interesting.

I was in a casino playing roulette (I really love this game), but have yet to find a way of increasing my odds for the short term :)

I know you can not beat roulette, but you can increase your chances and make profit for the short term right? So if you play "smart" you can end up with a profit most of the times if I'm correct?

I have been playing roulette only for 6-7 months, so bascially a newbie :)

Anywayz to continue. I was playing roulette (a live table) along with a few others. A moment later an older man joined. He just watched for a few spins while writing down the numbers. After a few spins he put a total of 1k on the table spread like this:

100 on even, 100 on red, 200 on 2nd-12, 200 on 3rd-12, 200 on 1-34 (first column) and 200 on 2-35 (second column) a total of 1K. I was suprised, it was quite a lot of money on a minimum bet of 10 table. The next spin comes up. Number falls on 22. That is 1400 (+400 profit). he wrote down the number as well. Next spin and the number falls on 32. That is 1600. So in 2 spins he had a profit of 1000.

Next spin he decides to bet nothing. The ball falls in 2. If he would bet the same he would've lost 200. Next spin same betting system, ball falls on number 23, so that would be 1400 again...

The next 3 spins he did nothing (no bets) and the numbers were 7, 27 and 1 all losing numbers. I was really suprised. I am aware of electronic devices but as far as I could see there was nothing, he did not wear a suit or bag or anything.

So how did he knew when to bet and when not to bet? Also I tested for only a few spins his system and I did make a small profit (I did not bet big as he did).

Well after those spins he cashed out.

I calculated quickly what the "good" numbers are(when you make profit) and the bad numbers (when you lose).

Good numbers:
-35
-29
-14
-16
-22
-34
-28
-22
-32
-23
-19
-25

-6
-11
-0
-15
-8
-17
-9

There are more but that is all I remember.

So for the more "experienced" people or anyone who who like to write down their thoughs about it :)

- How did he knew when to bet and when not to bet?
- What are the chances of htting a "good" number when you play 10 times in a row?
- What are the chances of hitting a "bad" number" when you play 10 times in a row?
- Can this be used for profit on a long term (chances)?
- What more numbers are "bad"?

The 1 thing I noticed is this only works on short term plays, I guess a max of 10 spins. Or cash out when you have some nice profit. This only works as well when you play with at least 1K or at least that is the impression I have.

Sorry for the long post, but this was so funny and interesting I had to post.
ThatDonGuy
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
• Posts: 4473
June 13th, 2016 at 12:10:57 PM permalink
Actually, 19 of the 38 numbers lose, only 16 win, and three break even:
NumberEvenRed12sColumnsTotal
0-1-1-2-2-6
00-1-1-2-2-6
1-1+1-4+2-2
2+1-1-4+2-2
3-1+1-4-4-8
4+1-1-4+2-2
5-1+1-4+2-2
6+1-1-4-4-8
7-1+1-4+2-2
8+1-1-4+2-2
9-1+1-4-4-8
10+1-1-4+2-2
11-1-1-4+2-4
12+1+1-4-4-6
13-1-1+2+2+2
14+1+1+2+2+6
15-1-1+2-4-4
16+1+1+2+2+6
17-1-1+2+2+2
18+1+1+2-40
19-1+1+2+2+4
20+1-1+2+2+4
21-1+1+2-4-2
22+1-1+2+2+4
23-1+1+2+2+4
24+1-1+2-4-2
25-1+1+2+2+4
26+1-1+2+2+4
27-1+1+2-4-2
28+1-1+2+2+4
29-1-1+2+2+2
30+1+1+2-40
31-1-1+2+2+2
32+1+1+2+2+6
33-1-1+2-4-4
34+1+1+2+2+6
35-1-1+2+2+2
36+1+1+2-40

The 12s column combines the two 12s bets, and the Columns column combines the two Columns bets

As for how he "knows" when to bet and when not to bet, your guess is as good as mine. I chalk it up to "just plain lucky that day."
DiscreteMaths2
Joined: May 4, 2016
• Posts: 241
June 13th, 2016 at 12:16:41 PM permalink
Quote: Kingdombunnies

I know you can not beat roulette, but you can increase your chances and make profit for the short term right? So if you play "smart" you can end up with a profit most of the times if I'm correct?

No, your chances are always the same, short or long term. The only thing that *changes* is that based on how you spend your bankroll and place your bets is the distribution of results. Sure you can bet with hopes that some short term variance will be in your favor but its still balanced out on the other end with you losing your money.
Assume the worst, believe no one, and make your move only when you are certain that you are unbeatable or have, at worst, exceptionally good odds in your favor.
Kingdombunnies
Joined: Jun 13, 2016
• Posts: 7
June 13th, 2016 at 12:32:24 PM permalink
@ThatDonGuy

Thnx for the chart and explanation :) That make things clearer :)

@DiscreteMaths2 thnx as well, so bascially it doesn't matter. In the end I have a good chance of winning as a good chance of losing.

Also what you are saying is that no matter what kind of system you play your win/ loss chance would be the same?

Does that mean in your opinion that all "systems" regarding roulette are of no use in the end?

Or is there a playing style regarding roulette that will give you an edge? You don't have to tell me I will find out whether it exists or not but I am curious what other people think as well :)
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
• Posts: 5490
June 13th, 2016 at 12:38:57 PM permalink
Quote: Kingdombunnies

This is not my method. I saw this and found it quite interesting.

I was in a casino playing roulette (I really love this game), but have yet to find a way of increasing my odds for the short term :)

That's because playing the game straight up (not ball tracking, biased wheel, etc) you can not change the odds with ANY betting system.

Quote: Kingdombunnies

I know you can not beat roulette, but you can increase your chances and make profit for the short term right? So if you play "smart" you can end up with a profit most of the times if I'm correct?

No. DiscreteMaths points this out and explains it but I just wanted to re-iterate that this logic is flawed.

Quote: Kingdombunnies

So for the more "experienced" people or anyone who who like to write down their thoughs about it :)

- How did he knew when to bet and when not to bet?
- What are the chances of htting a "good" number when you play 10 times in a row?
- What are the chances of hitting a "bad" number" when you play 10 times in a row?
- Can this be used for profit on a long term (chances)?
- What more numbers are "bad"?

1) He didn't. It was just luck. He probably does the same thing on other nights and when he doesn't bet a winning number would have come up. You happened to be part of the Law of Large Numbers where you think it's a coincidence that he didn't bet and happened to of hit a losing number.

2) His chance of hitting a "good number" is exactly the same whether you bet 1 time, or 10 times in a row. These are independent trials and do not rely on previous or future numbers. So when he writes the numbers down, he's just submitting to the gamblers fallacy that the past short term results will have any affect on the upcoming spin. 16/38 numbers are good, but on average of the winning bets he's only winning 3.875 units. When he hits a "bad" number, 19/38 times, he loses an average of 3.9 units. I hope you can see how weighted this is. The units are "close" to being the same, but he's winning 16/38 times and losing 19/38 times... You're going to do more losing than winning.

4) No. You will absolutely lose in the long term, and if you understand math means you have a negative expectation AT ALL TIMES, even the short term, but variance is the only reason 'some nights' (rarely) people walk away winners. Using our numbers from above, we can find the EV of 1 particular spin:

EV = (16/38)*(3.875) + (19/38)*(-3.9) + (3/38)*(0) = 1.63 - 1.95 + 0 = -.32 units PER SPIN

42% of the time you win 1.63 units.
50% of the time you lose 1.95 units.
8% of the time you push.

In the SHORT term, AND the long term you're expected to lose .32 units per spin, on average.

5) See ThatDonGuy's response.

Quote: Kingdombunnies

The 1 thing I noticed is this only works on short term plays, I guess a max of 10 spins...

So what about the night where you walk in and hit multiple losing numbers in a row? Anything in the short term is variance that will inevitably converge to your actual Expected Value (EV) over the long run. There is no such thing that "only works in the short term" because why wouldn't you just go do it every single night? I'll tell you why... because that adds up to the long term. So basically you're saying it only works for one or two nights, which is the same as saying "I got lucky a few times and then never did it again." That doesn't prove that it works at all, just that the player was lucky a few times. Proof that something works requires large sampling sizes, which this system would undoubtedly fail by the time it got to that many trails.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
TwoFeathersATL
Joined: May 22, 2013
• Posts: 3616
June 13th, 2016 at 12:38:59 PM permalink
When Jesus returns, look for him first at the roulette wheel.
He'll need some pocket change.
And he will know what numbers to bet ;-!
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
DiscreteMaths2
Joined: May 4, 2016
• Posts: 241
June 13th, 2016 at 12:42:00 PM permalink
The Wizard would say such systems are useless, I am not so harsh. They have value in that they can give a player extra enjoyment in their gambling pursuits. Roulette is a game of independent trials, so no there is no betting system that is going to change the probability of a given spin of the wheel. If you want an edge in roulette you need to find a bad wheel, a bad dealer, or rules/promotions that will be in your favor.
Assume the worst, believe no one, and make your move only when you are certain that you are unbeatable or have, at worst, exceptionally good odds in your favor.
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
• Posts: 5490
June 13th, 2016 at 12:45:01 PM permalink
Quote: Kingdombunnies

@DiscreteMaths2 thnx as well, so bascially it doesn't matter. In the end I have a good chance of winning as a good chance of losing.

Also what you are saying is that no matter what kind of system you play your win/ loss chance would be the same?

Does that mean in your opinion that all "systems" regarding roulette are of no use in the end?

Or is there a playing style regarding roulette that will give you an edge? You don't have to tell me I will find out whether it exists or not but I am curious what other people think as well :)

No, you have a better chance of losing than you do of winning, which is how the math of the game is set up to work in the casinos favor and why the house always wins.

If you use different systems you might lose more but the least you'll ever lose is betting the smallest amount on the smallest house edge.

There are ways of beating roulette that aren't too secretive, but require a ton of training, data gathering, etc, that would take quite a long time and effort that most will not do. There is no "walk in to any casino and win at any roulette game" silver bullet you're looking for. One of the simplest ways to beat roulette is to find a biased wheel. Older wheels weren't made perfectly and even the slightest offset in weight, size, whatever, will bias it towards certain numbers on the wheel. You need about 8,000 spins worth of data to tell if any numbers are biased or not which would take a long ass time of reading those boards to see if it's true. Then you have the problem that casinos sometimes rotate wheels at tables, or switch them out altogether, which means you'll have to have a way of identifying "your" wheel.

But if you can find a place that uses older wheels, confirm it has a bias, and confirm a distinctive mark on the wheel so you know it's the right one... Then yeah, you can beat roulette by simply betting the biased numbers for as long as they'll let you and eventually you'll win.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
Kingdombunnies
Joined: Jun 13, 2016
• Posts: 7
June 13th, 2016 at 12:50:53 PM permalink
Thnx Romes and DiscreteMaths2 for the reply.

And Romes thanks for answering all my questions.

Yes I do realise you can not just walk in and find the winning system.

Of course somewhere in my mind I had hoped for some kind of system exepect the bias wheels. Because of the many so claimed Holy Grails, sometimes you don't know what to believe :)

Thats why I appreciate the honest answers (thet are in no way harsh). Just try to collect as much information as possible.

Thnx!
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010