bacc tracking
Quote: onlyplayerYou rush to judgment teliot,
I never said I was a professional Bacc player. I am a retired Actuary and computer programmer. I feel I know enough about numbers to know the math of Bacc. I will read your article for "shits and giggles" but I don't think I will get anything from it. Thanks anyway.
Just looking for advice from people who gamble, I am not a big gambler. I just love the math. This is a math thread right? Maybe I picked the wrong site.
I respect and appreciate the real Wizards math and explanations. I thought his members would also.
Thanks
Just for the record, teliot is Eliot Jacobson and this is his site, http://apheat.net/. He's no slouch.
Oh John May where are yooooouuuuuu???? We know you still lurk bro!
Quote: onlyplayer
You are correct sir, Vegas is the best place to live and play Baccarat in the world...........
Vegas is AWESOME. I have been to various destinations in the US and Macau twice and nothing compares to what is here. Not all the time but at various times Vegas allows you to stop the shoe and begin a new one if you ask for it good or bad. Well you have to be nice and polite with everyone but still. This would NEVER happen in any other destinations. Never been to Singapore so I can't say but I am sure they wouldn't allow it either. In some Macau casinos you are not allowed to record the shoe and must rely on the scoreboard.
Quote: onlyplayerNow that's funny right there.
I will stay hydrated...................................
Great post.
This ain't no joke the number one reason system players lose is not getting enough water. Oh that and running out of money.
Quote: onlyplayer... I am not a big gambler. I just love the math. This is a math thread right? Maybe I picked the wrong site.
Unwarranted Assumption: [for the sake of argument]You are what you say you are.
Please refute mathematically or otherwise competently this statement by the Wizard of Odds:
Quote: link, with ellipses[in baccarat]... all this effort at trying to predict the next hand is a waste of time. For all practical purposes, the odds are the same for every hand, and the past history does not matter...trying to find a pattern in past Player and Banker wins is as useless as predicting the next color in roulette (on a fair wheel) according to past reds and blacks.
https://wizardofodds.com/games/baccarat/history/
FREE YOUR MIND...... LOL.
Wait wait wait.... never mind...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j556MWGVVqI
AbsolutelyQuote: BozSomewhere is the advice guide for posting here with a system is this line now a prerequisite?
Quote: djatcMake sure you stay hydrated .
Fantastic!
If someone is going to just jump into playing Black Jack, Poker, or any form of casino game without studying or testing it they are only going fail immediately. I am looking to have fun and enjoy the challenge not make a living or claim I am going to get rich playing Baccarat. I was only looking to see how other people research and practice the games they play. (PLAY)................
It is funny that most people are assuming that I think I am so smart that I am going to take MILLIONS from the casinos. I am not that smart. I'm only having fun in Vegas.
Sorry if I did not make myself clear.
Thanks and enjoy your Threads
Well, you asked for proof that your system didn't work. How do you explain that?Quote: onlyplayerMost people are thinking I am seeking approval or proof that it works, that is not the intent.
Quote:If someone is going to just jump into playing Black Jack, Poker, or any form of casino game without studying or testing it they are only going fail immediately.
Poker and blackjack involve play strategies that have a significant impact on the player's theoretical edge. If you make the wrong play in blackjack, that costs a measurable theoretical return. Studying the right plays is therefore important to maximizing one's payback.
But there is no play strategy for the bets in baccarat (or craps, or roulette, or most slot games.) If you and I are sitting at a baccarat table and we both make the banker bet, your studying does not give you an advantage over me (or over the casino) in terms of expected payback.
To put it another way, studying only matters where there's something to study. In baccarat, after you make your bet, you have no control over what happens next so there is nothing to study. And there's nothing to study before you make your bet either -- it has been conclusively demonstrated that the patterns of prior baccarat outcomes have no predictive value for subsequent hands. The same is true for roulette or dice games. So no, you don't need to study anything about baccarat in order to play as well as anyone else.
Quote: onlyplayerI am sorry. I don't remember asking if my strategy or system works. I have not and will not post about that.
Please don't. There is only a couple of
things you could be doing and
everybody here has heard them a hundred
times. You're watching a single stream
of outcomes, not unlike watching a single
coin being tossed. The strategies you can use
are extremely limited, nothing new to see
here, please move along..
Here's something to try. Use your method this
way. Go to a casino that has 3 bac tables.
Use the results from one table to arrive at
your bet. Now go to the next table and make
a virtual bet using the outcomes from the first
table to guide you. When you record that
outcome, go to the third table and make a
virtual bet using the info you have. Keep
doing this and you'll see no difference in the
results than if you'd stayed at the first
table. Random is random, doesn't matter
where you get the outcomes from. All
random outcomes are unrelated to other
random outcomes.
Quote: MathExtremistWell, you asked for proof that your system didn't work. How do you explain that?
Poker and blackjack involve play strategies that have a significant impact on the player's theoretical edge. If you make the wrong play in blackjack, that costs a measurable theoretical return. Studying the right plays is therefore important to maximizing one's payback.
But there is no play strategy for the bets in baccarat (or craps, or roulette, or most slot games.) If you and I are sitting at a baccarat table and we both make the banker bet, your studying does not give you an advantage over me (or over the casino) in terms of expected payback.
To put it another way, studying only matters where there's something to study. In baccarat, after you make your bet, you have no control over what happens next so there is nothing to study. And there's nothing to study before you make your bet either -- it has been conclusively demonstrated that the patterns of prior baccarat outcomes have no predictive value for subsequent hands. The same is true for roulette or dice games. So no, you don't need to study anything about baccarat in order to play as well as anyone else.
He's going to spend many hours studying, that's the only thing that's saving him from failing immediately. As soon as he makes a bet on Baccarat he has already failed as a gambler win or lose.
I'll never understand how it is that some people are willing to put in so much time and effort on something that's impossible to beat. Yet there's something 2 tables/machines/casinos away that are +EV with a real chance to actually turn a hobby in to a seriously profitable one. I guess people just like guessing.
Such a person might mistrust "so-called experts", as he might put it, or just be unaware that someone like the Wizard is out there telling the truth. I think it is possible to delve into books and websites and conclude the writers are just out to get your money. A novice really needs to come across the right sites; possibly only the Wizard's comes up all that much on a google search and frankly it is possible to conclude going there now that it just is all about internet gambling.
But for sure, to rely upon a player's own investigations and instincts, and to listen to other players and dealers, is the wrong path in gambling. You have to somehow know that.
Quote: MathExtremistTo put it another way, studying only matters where there's something to study. In baccarat, after you make your bet, you have no control over what happens next so there is nothing to study. And there's nothing to study before you make your bet either
Exactly. The poster might as well have recorded and studied the outcome of 23,000 coin tosses, over a period of years before risking his real money.
All that the OP's studies could have yielded is a money management strategy or betting style which might increase the fun of playing while not totally destroying longevity.
Pointless to analyse: Pointless to discuss. IMHO. He doesn't even give us any real clues what the heck he is talking about.
What's the point of this thread?
Quote: OnceDearSo, you gave us figures per loss and per win. Those losses and wins were shoes and not hands? Or was a win one shoe but a 'loss' a sequence of (10?) shoes?
Do you somehow make one wager per shoe? Or do you assign one shoe bankroll to each?
You can survive 2500 to 3000 shoes before 'a loss' What the dickens does that mean? Is that 'loss' of all your worldly fortune ( how much), or just $500 ( Playing 10c per shoe, which doesn't gel, of course)
if you can have any 'loss' of $500, then surely that is potentially a $1.5M loss after 3,000 shoes. Do you get that back in the $50 winner of shoe 3001.
What if you had 500 sequential losing shoes then won a couple then lost another few hundred?
None of what you say makes sense to me.
Incidentally, I guess you are transcribing your win records to a paper or spreadsheet record. That must be time consuming.
Did you design your system before or after analysing your results? If after, that would be described as painting the target where the arrow landed. That doesn't work in real life.
Remarkable how the OP steadfastly ignores the simple questions which might lead us to give him feedback. Does that remind us of anyone?
Quote: GWAEAh damn, read the entire thread thinking there would be some pics for some proof. Owell my day is ruined now.
Here are some monkeys chillin in a hot spring
Quote: AxelWolfQuote: MathExtremistWell, you asked for proof that your system didn't work. How do you explain that?
Poker and blackjack involve play strategies that have a significant impact on the player's theoretical edge. If you make the wrong play in blackjack, that costs a measurable theoretical return. Studying the right plays is therefore important to maximizing one's payback.
But there is no play strategy for the bets in baccarat (or craps, or roulette, or most slot games.) If you and I are sitting at a baccarat table and we both make the banker bet, your studying does not give you an advantage over me (or over the casino) in terms of expected payback.
To put it another way, studying only matters where there's something to study. In baccarat, after you make your bet, you have no control over what happens next so there is nothing to study. And there's nothing to study before you make your bet either -- it has been conclusively demonstrated that the patterns of prior baccarat outcomes have no predictive value for subsequent hands. The same is true for roulette or dice games. So no, you don't need to study anything about baccarat in order to play as well as anyone else.
He's going to spend many hours studying, that's the only thing that's saving him from failing immediately. As soon as he makes a bet on Baccarat he has already failed as a gambler win or lose.
I'll never understand how it is that some people are willing to put in so much time and effort on something that's impossible to beat. Yet there's something 2 tables/machines/casinos away that are +EV with a real chance to actually turn a hobby in to a seriously profitable one. I guess people just like guessing.
The poster suffers from JOHN HENRY syndrome. John Henry challenged the steam drill to a contest. He won, but died of exhaustion, his life cut short by his own superhuman effort. Why challenge a game like blackjack, or a simple error in a slot machine design ? When you can become a legend, even if only in your own mind!
Quote: OnceDearRemarkable how the OP steadfastly ignores the simple questions which might lead us to give him feedback. Does that remind us of anyone?
I thought the same thing. Reminds me of a
couple people for sure.
I think this mentality is also why people play slot machines. Everyone knows blackjack or craps is a better bet (percentage-wise) than the typical slot game, but when you play slots there's the remote chance of hitting a big jackpot with virtually no work. You just press the buttons. You can't do that in blackjack, ever, because you have to concentrate on your play. Even in craps where you don't really have to concentrate, the biggest payout is 30-1. Except if the Hard Pass bet is installed which pays 80-1 [/shameless plug].Quote: AxelWolfHe's going to spend many hours studying, that's the only thing that's saving him from failing immediately. As soon as he makes a bet on Baccarat he has already failed as a gambler win or lose.
I'll never understand how it is that some people are willing to put in so much time and effort on something that's impossible to beat. Yet there's something 2 tables/machines/casinos away that are +EV with a real chance to actually turn a hobby in to a seriously profitable one. I guess people just like guessing.
Anyway, to me the "baccarat tracking" appeal has to be its simplicity and promise of easy wealth. *If* there were a pattern in prior game outcomes that had predictive value, that would be a trivial way to make money. APing other games is not so easy or, really, unlimited. Most good AP plays, from a % standpoint, are very short-lived. Once the multipliers are gone or the progressives hit, for example, you stop playing and move on. Compared to watching the baccarat history display, that's a lot more work.
I am averaging 25 games per day. ( my games do not need a whole shoe to win or lose a game) The average game takes 18.47 hands.
249 wins of an average $ 48.02/win
1 loss of $1349.00
I think you missed a few ???'s there.Quote: WizardofnothingAnd????????
Just posting 2 weeks of play.
I will see how long it takes to bust out.............
Baccarat system players never bust out they just fade away until the next brilliant system player comes along or the old ones replenish their bankrolls from work or whatever.Quote: onlyplayerAnd??????????
Just posting 2 weeks of play.
I will see how long it takes to bust out.............
Quote: onlyplayerAnd??????????
Just posting 2 weeks of play.
I will see how long it takes to bust out.............
Why? Do you think you won't?
If so, keep giving the updates
WHEN you do bust out, tell us how spectacularly you fell.
My bankroll is now double in 2 weeks. I hope I can keep up this average win loss rate. My bankroll could be trip by the 4 week mark.
Thanks for all the positive support. I expected nothing less..........WTF.
Thanks again..............
For the low cost of about $50 you can get any number of small hassle free undetectable video cameras and record your sessions. If you have discovered some special working system stop posting about it and just do it. There's Millions to be made.Quote: onlyplayerI will give if 3 or 4 months.
My bankroll is now double in 2 weeks. I hope I can keep up this average win loss rate. My bankroll could be trip by the 4 week mark.
Thanks for all the positive support. I expected nothing less..........WTF.
If you can prove some winning system your winnings can be fast tracked greatly and more efficiently. There's people who have large enough bankrolls, much more experience and knowledge. They can help you extract as much money as possible. Not to mention all notoriety, books, media you can handle if you so choose. You'll be known as the the smartest gambler in the world. You'll be the next Edward Thorpe, I think he's worth hundreds of millions.
Considering you will have discovered something he couldn't. I would assume you're even smarter than he is. Beating baccarat is only a steeping stone to much greater things. I'm certain that would make you very wealthy.
Until you're willing to provide proof, you have nothing, no one will believe. You're just being humored at this point. If everything fails you can still post up the baccarat sessions and use it to help others who have fantasies of beating baccarat.
Quote: onlyplayerI will give if 3 or 4 months.
My bankroll is now double in 2 weeks. I hope I can keep up this average win loss rate. My bankroll could be trip by the 4 week mark.
Thanks for all the positive support. I expected nothing less..........WTF.
Hi OnlyPlayer,
We are actually trying to be supportive. Not of your 'system' but of your well-being.
It's your money, your risk, your reward. However, like many before you, you are not getting the message.
So here it is boiled down and writ large:-
It is as easy and as likely to double your bankroll with your system as it is to double it with one simple coin toss: It's (broadly) equally likely and easy to lose your bankroll.
From what you've said so far, you have put at risk a BR of $10,000 and have comfortably doubled it. Good on you. It's roughly 50:50 that you will double it again to bring you to $40,000. Nothing remarkable or praiseworthy about that. If you succeed at that, maybe you'll try doubling it again to $80,000. Whether you take these risks is your call.
* I ignored House edge, which will bleed you dry.
I'm sure me made 99.99% of that in the market.Quote: WizardofnothingI think 700 mill plus - he made way more in the stock market then in casinos
Quote: onlyplayerYou rush to judgment teliot,
I never said I was a professional Bacc player. I am a retired Actuary and computer programmer. I feel I know enough about numbers to know the math of Bacc.
Thanks
I am sorry but I do not believe a word you said in any of your posts.
You say you are an Actuary.
You also " I realize there are not any systems or strategies that can win over a negative expectation game."
And then you say that you have a system that can beat baccarat and you have checked your system against so many shoes etc.
Any AP play has a mathematical reasoning behind it.
The mathematical reasoning might include some non standard aspects of a particular game (for example you can beat many casino games if the dealer is sloppy and exposes hole cards).
You contradict yourself.
Since you are an Actuary, if there is a mathematical way to beat the game (excluding and non standard aspects like hole carding) you should be able to tell us this mathematical truth, Not your system, but the mathematical reasoning behind the system.
BUT you know, quite a few clever people have proved that there is no mathematical way to beat Baccarat (actually this is not true, you can beat the game with counting but for miniscule amounts which are not worth the time and effort).
So if you are an Actuary, you would have seen these proofs ands as an Actuary accepted this math and not spend all this time testing a system that cannot work mathematically.
Quote: onlyplayerI will give if 3 or 4 months.
My bankroll is now double in 2 weeks. I hope I can keep up this average win loss rate. My bankroll could be trip by the 4 week mark.
Thanks for all the positive support. I expected nothing less..........WTF.
Have you considered accepting the almost legitimate real world/ in the casino 30K challenge?
If you have played the required number of hands and are ahead , you win !
I don't think I want anybody playing the way I do. $30,000 is not worth all the hard work and research I have invested in this game. No interest in showing this to anybody. I only need to prove it to my bankroll and that is good enough for me.
My record since playing with real money: 1765W / 19L ( so far so good and I hope it stays on track )
I will use the advice I received from all of you as I play on.
Thanks again.
Please let me know how many months of play you would need to see for "mathematical proof" without counting cards.
For your information I am not using math to win at Bacc and never said I was. I was only asking if I had enough data from tracking live table play to start playing with real money. Sorry I was sucked Into other discussions defending my questions and responses.
Thanks again.
I know that it can all turn south at any time but I will keep on working at it. Fun..........
Quote: AxelWolfBaccarat system players never bust out they just fade away until the next brilliant system player comes along or the old ones replenish their bankrolls from work or whatever.
Still playing the Bac game not fade away or bust out yet. I think the -EV or long run has not catching up with me yet. Love reading your posts.
Thanks.Quote: lovebacgameStill playing the Bac game not fade away or bust out yet. I think the -EV or long run has not catching up with me yet. Love reading your posts.
That's wonderful that you haven't been bitten by the HA yet.
I do believe people can and do get lucky for a long time. Unfortunately for everyone who gets lucky, there's far more people who get very unlucky or run as they should. In the end it all works out to -EV.
There's no real working betting system, it may work for you ONLY due to extreme luck. The more you play, the more likely it is you will lose. I say quit now and stop gambling before the numbers catch up to you.
Be careful walking across the street, because maybe, just maybe everything in life averages out.
Quote: DMSCRVegas is AWESOME. I have been to various destinations in the US and Macau twice and nothing compares to what is here. Not all the time but at various times Vegas allows you to stop the shoe and begin a new one if you ask for it good or bad. Well you have to be nice and polite with everyone but still. This would NEVER happen in any other destinations. Never been to Singapore so I can't say but I am sure they wouldn't allow it either. In some Macau casinos you are not allowed to record the shoe and must rely on the scoreboard.
Hi DMSCR. Here in the NorthWest. They do allow you to start the new shoe anytime as long as the people playing at the table agree. You can have unlimited free hands if you want if nobody bet.
Quote: AxelWolfThanks.
That's wonderful you haven't been bitten by the HA yet.
I do believe people can and do get lucky for a long time. Unfortunately for everyone who gets lucky there's far more who get very unlucky or run as they should. In the end it all works out to -EV.b
There's no real working system if may work for you ONLY due to extreme luck. The more you play the more likely it is you will lose. I say quit now and stop gambling before the numbers catch up to you. M
Be careful walking across the street because maybe just maybe everything in life averages out.
I understood what you are saying. Someday i just can not win I can feel it and just cut my lost and walk away. In a day or two I come back and get my money back or more. I don't chase my lost like I used to be or pushing my luck. I don't have any betting system in placing bet but I do have stop win and lost in place. Someday it just take me 20 minutes or less to reach my win or lost goal. I still on the positive side and hope it stay that way for awhile.
I think I will take your advice and walk with my winnings. Today I saw a Bacc player lose over $27.000.00. I wached him build it up from $500.00 over the past 2 months. He told me " I always seem to lose all the money I made and then some."
Now I see why most of you keep saying you can not win at a "negative expectation game"
I will keep playing, but just for fun............................Thanks
I did well and I will count my blessings.
Quote: onlyplayerIt is still fun.
I did well and I will count my blessings.
Good luck and keep on winning and have fun playing the game. LBG.
Everyday is fun in Vegas.........................even the bad days.
Quote: onlyplayerI think I will take your advice and walk with my winnings. Today I saw a Bacc player lose over $27.000.00. I watched him build it up from $500.00 over the past 2 months.
Far far better to learn from someone else's mistake. Hopefully guidance on this forum had wised you up enough to hang on to your profit.
Some would say 'He only lost $500.00 because the rest was the house's money.' But fact is, that until he lost it, it was cold hard cash of his that he could have spent on improving his standard of living or that of his family.. Did he get $27,000 of entertainment value, do you think? I doubt it. Would he have been prepared to walk in on that first day and lose $27,000? Doubt that too.
