54 slot promotion
November 24th, 2015 at 3:18:48 AM
permalink
Good Evening All, I am thinking about running a promotion for a huge prize, but for the life of me I can't work out the odds/expected spins.
OK, this will be a long promotion and the details are as follows.
54 Slots on a wheel,
a playing card in each slot, with a joker in one and a clear cards (start again/lose) in another.
Players will win with the best 5 card hand after a week.
But a super jackpot for anyone who spins a complete deck i.e. All 52 cards (they can use the joker as many times as they hit it) but if they hit the clear hand it takes them back to the start.
How many spins would someone be expected to do, before the super jackpot goes?
All answers gratefully received
Many Thanks
OK, this will be a long promotion and the details are as follows.
54 Slots on a wheel,
a playing card in each slot, with a joker in one and a clear cards (start again/lose) in another.
Players will win with the best 5 card hand after a week.
But a super jackpot for anyone who spins a complete deck i.e. All 52 cards (they can use the joker as many times as they hit it) but if they hit the clear hand it takes them back to the start.
How many spins would someone be expected to do, before the super jackpot goes?
All answers gratefully received
Many Thanks
November 24th, 2015 at 4:03:11 AM
permalink
Sounds interesting. Just curious, how do people earn spins?
Is this for poker players or something?
Oh how many spins do they get at one time to start with...5...1? I'm curious how someone spins a complete poker hand.
What happens if you get the same card again? like Ace of spades 2 times?
Don't forget to have something in place if 2 people get the same final hand.
Is this for poker players or something?
Oh how many spins do they get at one time to start with...5...1? I'm curious how someone spins a complete poker hand.
What happens if you get the same card again? like Ace of spades 2 times?
Don't forget to have something in place if 2 people get the same final hand.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
November 24th, 2015 at 4:42:47 AM
permalink
Every Hour Played they receive a spin, then they get a couple of bonus spins after qualifying hands hit etc, there is a prize every time for a qualifying hand, but they also receive a playing card.
Simply if someone plays for 20 hours then they get 20 spins, the best five cards they make from 20 is their premium hand, if that beats everyone else then they win x.
Same card again tough luck.
Kind of a rake back promo, with other benefits.
Simply if someone plays for 20 hours then they get 20 spins, the best five cards they make from 20 is their premium hand, if that beats everyone else then they win x.
Same card again tough luck.
Kind of a rake back promo, with other benefits.
November 24th, 2015 at 7:32:26 AM
permalink
If I crunched the numbers right, I get 737 (well, 736.9605355) spins.
Let E(a,b) be the expected number of spins needed to get to a winning position, where "a" is the number of different cards besides the joker landed on since the most recent clear, and "b" is the number of jokers since the most recent clear
E(52,0) = E(51,1) = E(50,0) = ... = E(1,51) = E(0,52) = 0
E(a,b) = 1 + 1/54 x E(0,0) + 1/54 x E(a,b+1) + a/54 x E(a,b) + (52-a)/54 x E(a+1,b)
Subtract a/54 x E(a,b) from both sides:
(1 - a/54) x E(a,b) = 1 + 1/54 x E(0,0) + 1/54 x E(a,b+1) + (52-a)/54 x E(a+1,b)
Multiply both sides by 54 / (54 - a) (which is 1 - a/54):
E(a,b) = 54 / (54-a) + ( E(0,0) + E(a,b+1) + (52-a) x E(a+1,b) ) / (54-a)
Work backwards to get E(0,0) in terms of E(0,0) and a constant
Simulation gets it somewhere around 731
Let E(a,b) be the expected number of spins needed to get to a winning position, where "a" is the number of different cards besides the joker landed on since the most recent clear, and "b" is the number of jokers since the most recent clear
E(52,0) = E(51,1) = E(50,0) = ... = E(1,51) = E(0,52) = 0
E(a,b) = 1 + 1/54 x E(0,0) + 1/54 x E(a,b+1) + a/54 x E(a,b) + (52-a)/54 x E(a+1,b)
Subtract a/54 x E(a,b) from both sides:
(1 - a/54) x E(a,b) = 1 + 1/54 x E(0,0) + 1/54 x E(a,b+1) + (52-a)/54 x E(a+1,b)
Multiply both sides by 54 / (54 - a) (which is 1 - a/54):
E(a,b) = 54 / (54-a) + ( E(0,0) + E(a,b+1) + (52-a) x E(a+1,b) ) / (54-a)
Work backwards to get E(0,0) in terms of E(0,0) and a constant
Simulation gets it somewhere around 731
November 24th, 2015 at 8:16:29 AM
permalink
Don, did you take into consideration the "clear card"?
November 24th, 2015 at 8:23:51 AM
permalink
Seems Awfully low Don, and thank you for taking the time to work it out.
As it is a constant 53 with one joker I got it at 26.5*26.5 = 702.25 with the variable of the clear card *54 @ 37,921.5 but Math isn't my strong point (hence why I am here lol) and I know I am missing something out.
As it is a constant 53 with one joker I got it at 26.5*26.5 = 702.25 with the variable of the clear card *54 @ 37,921.5 but Math isn't my strong point (hence why I am here lol) and I know I am missing something out.
November 24th, 2015 at 8:30:27 AM
permalink
I kind of need it to be as accurate as possible as I want to promote £1,000,000 to the first person to do it, before I present it to my boss. Cheers Guys
November 24th, 2015 at 9:19:45 AM
permalink
Don’s math looks legit.
My simulation (100,000 trials) gives 738.05
My simulation (100,000 trials) gives 738.05
November 24th, 2015 at 9:27:46 AM
permalink
That's the exact phrase you should use in the official rules.Quote: Ricky9
Same card again tough luck.
Again It's a fun idea. I'm glad someone is actually thinking about something different when it comes to promotions. See if they will do it on VP as well.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
November 24th, 2015 at 9:33:55 AM
permalink
Is that with the clear card starting it from scratch though PeeMcGee?
November 24th, 2015 at 9:35:00 AM
permalink
I promise I will, if it goes through. All though if it is only 738 spins may need a re think lol
Thank You
Thank You
November 24th, 2015 at 9:49:47 AM
permalink
Quote: Ricky9Is that with the clear card starting it from scratch though PeeMcGee?
Yea. My sim works as follows…
1. Draw one of the 54 cards.
2. If the card is the clear, then remove all cards from the ‘hand’.
3. If the card is the joker, then add it to the hand.
4. If the card is any other card and it’s not in the hand, then add it to the hand.
5. Repeat steps 1-4 until the number of jokers plus the number of other cards in hand is 52.
November 24th, 2015 at 9:53:53 AM
permalink
Smashing Thank You, all though a bit disappointed.
If I remove the joker and replace with another Clear Card could you please run it again. Most appreciated
So 52 cards and 2 clear all
Cheers
If I remove the joker and replace with another Clear Card could you please run it again. Most appreciated
So 52 cards and 2 clear all
Cheers
November 24th, 2015 at 10:00:59 AM
permalink
How long will the promotion last?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
November 24th, 2015 at 10:01:59 AM
permalink
Until someone wins it
November 24th, 2015 at 10:10:48 AM
permalink
I'd work backwards. How long do you want it to take for someone to win? Do you want there to be a guaranteed winner after a fixed time period? How often do you want to let players try to play? How long does it take for the player to play?
I'd think of the answers to those questions and then design the promotion accordingly. Otherwise you're designing a game, which is fine, but games are meant to be played over and over. Promotions usually have specific goals, like "we need to give away the car by the end of December or we don't get the tax writeoff" or "we need to sign up 3000 new loyalty club members during the next quarter."
If you want help, PM me and we'll connect via email. I can also put you in touch with several other operators who run big-dollar promos frequently.
I'd think of the answers to those questions and then design the promotion accordingly. Otherwise you're designing a game, which is fine, but games are meant to be played over and over. Promotions usually have specific goals, like "we need to give away the car by the end of December or we don't get the tax writeoff" or "we need to sign up 3000 new loyalty club members during the next quarter."
If you want help, PM me and we'll connect via email. I can also put you in touch with several other operators who run big-dollar promos frequently.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
November 24th, 2015 at 10:19:50 AM
permalink
Cheers will pm you now,
but just so I don't sound too stingy, each slot already has 2 prizes on it, an inner prize and an outer prize. If someone hits a royal flush or the best hand of the week they can shoot for the outside prize, which in itself is quite appealing.
but just so I don't sound too stingy, each slot already has 2 prizes on it, an inner prize and an outer prize. If someone hits a royal flush or the best hand of the week they can shoot for the outside prize, which in itself is quite appealing.
November 24th, 2015 at 11:55:53 AM
permalink
Quote: Ricky9Smashing Thank You, all though a bit disappointed.
If I remove the joker and replace with another Clear Card could you please run it again. Most appreciated
So 52 cards and 2 clear all
I get something like 38,610, but when I simulate it, it's "only" around 37,000.
It's around 2725 if you replace the Joker with a "wasted spin" space - that is, treat it as if you spun a number you already have. (If you're familiar with Wheel of Fortune, it's like landing on "Lose A Turn" as opposed to the Clear's "Bankrupt".)
November 24th, 2015 at 12:10:22 PM
permalink
That's great cheers Don
November 24th, 2015 at 12:58:59 PM
permalink
Here's another idea: if, when somebody spins a Joker, they have to choose a card they don't already have on the spot (rather than "saving them up"), the expected number of spins is about 1400.
November 24th, 2015 at 1:14:19 PM
permalink
hmmmm, interesting. Possible
I was thinking if there was 2 clear cards, to make one clear all the black and the other all the red.
I was thinking if there was 2 clear cards, to make one clear all the black and the other all the red.
November 24th, 2015 at 2:07:09 PM
permalink
Quote: Ricky9I was thinking if there was 2 clear cards, to make one clear all the black and the other all the red.
Doing a simulation, I get just under 19,000 spins needed.
November 24th, 2015 at 4:02:03 PM
permalink
Just curious, how would you keep track of everyone's hand? Also when you get a joker do you have to pick the card that you want or do you save it till the end and just fill in what is needed. I think you should make them pick right away fwiw.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed.
I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
