Coin toss probability
Every few years I contact the private mint that makes the Super Bowl coin that is flipped to ask if it's coins are evenly weighted and I've never received a response.
Quote: AlanMendelsonJust as an aside: US coins are not "fair coins." The "heads" half is heavier because of the portraits.
Every few years I contact the private mint that makes the Super Bowl coin that is flipped to ask if it's coins are evenly weighted and I've never received a response.
Assuming it's not, would you pick heads or tails while it's in the air during the toss, based on what?
Because I don't think they would tell you what side it's weighted to either and each coin is different.
Or do you just want to know if it's balanced, as general info?
Really? This number (of tosses to get an edge landing) seems awfully low. I guess it depends on the coin (and height of toss, landing surface, etc.), but I would have thought the number of tosses would be orders higher than 6,000.Quote: plamen.velkovHello Mr. Wizard i recently read that the probability of a coin landing on edge is approximately 1 in 6000 tosses.
I could easily be wrong, though. Can I ask where you read this?
EDIT: OK, I found this, which claims the 1:6000 value for a US nickel. Looks like you have to subscribe, though, to get access to more than just the study's abstract. But I also found this website, where in the third answer down, the author claims that the above study "actually used hexagonal nuts," and evidently extrapolated the results to get the 1:6000 number for the nickel.
I don't know of any other tests including a test of Super Bowl coins.
Quote: JoemanReally? This number (of tosses to get an edge landing) seems awfully low. I guess it depends on the coin (and height of toss, landing surface, etc.), but I would have thought the number of tosses would be orders higher than 6,000.
I could easily be wrong, though. Can I ask where you read this?
In the Twilight Zone episode the newspaper boy said it was one in a million
Quote: rxwineAssuming it's not, would you pick heads or tails while it's in the air during the toss, based on what?
If you don't know the starting orientation and type of toss, it doesn't matter.
Gee, maybe it does happen pretty often....
That happened once that I saw over a 5 year span of AP coin tossing, which I estimate to be around 25000 observed tosses.
Do tell.Quote: Dieter
That happened once that I saw over a 5 year span of AP coin tossing, which I estimate to be around 25000 observed tosses.
Quote: Dieter
That happened once that I saw over a 5 year span of AP coin tossing, which I estimate to be around 25000 observed tosses.
Details please.
I drank a lot more sodas than I bought.
Why was it an advantage play? Because I didn't toss the coin fairly.
Why so many coin tosses? People would keep flipping coins until they got one that landed heads. Double or nothing was a common option. Ties were relatively common, initiating another round.
As for how the mechanics of CI works... controlled initial orientation, controlled release, and if you're catching rather than allowing it to land, a controlled catch.
I'm not convinced that "Mikey" actually had an edge, but given a choice to flip a coin against him, I'd prefer not to do it if the quarter he's using has a peach on the reverse. The smack-talk gets unbearable.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/19635-the-st-petersburg-paradox/2/#post399096
Quote: AlanMendelsonSeveral years ago MIT did a test and determined the heads side of US cents would land down, tails up.
I don't know of any other tests including a test of Super Bowl coins.
So, MIT says 100% tails.
