Expected Value Problem

Please note, while I don't know how to calculate the EV of this "system," I know enough to know it'll lose and I do not expect to try it out in real life. Just hoping for some math help.

I'm playing a 5x odds craps table and split a $100 bet between between $8 on Pass and $52 Don't Pass with the hopes of putting $40 on the pass odds if the come out roll is survived. There are 5 possible outcomes:

1) 2 or 3 come out with an immediate profit of $44

2) 7 or 11 come out for an immediate loss of $44

3) 12 comes out for an immediate loss of $52

4) Lets ignore establishing 4, 5, 9, or 10 as points for now.

5) 6 or 8 are established, $40 odds placed, and now I win $4 no matter if the point hits (16 + 40 x 2.2 = 104) or 7 shows its ugly face (52 x 2 = 104).

I know this is a bad strategy, but I can't wrap my head around figuring out the EV since its sorta two parter. Any math helpers out there would be greatly appreciated!

Quote: Plloen

I'm playing a 5x odds craps table and split a $100 bet between between $8 on Pass and $52 Don't Pass with the hopes of putting $40 on the pass odds if the come out roll is survived.

Odds don't matter. The h/a on the Pass is 1.41%. The h/a on the Don't is 1.37%. Your EV is therefore 8x1.41% + 52x1.37% = 0.825. That is, you can expect to lose 82.5 cents per come out roll. Partner or not doesn't matter if the bankroll is shared.

Quote: Plloen

3) 12 comes out for an immediate loss of $52

please explain this...
on the come out roll when a 12 is rolled
what is a winner
and
what is a loser?

Quote: Plloen

4) Lets ignore establishing 4, 5, 9, or 10 as points for now.

one should never ignore a possibility with pass line and don't pass bets, imo.
ignoring is boring

still waiting for you to get back to this
due you not like 4,5,9s and 10s?

looks to me you almost solved this by yourself but quit because ?

thank you for sharing
and I bet $1
you will try this betting system, somewhere

Quote: mustangsally

I bet $1 you will try this betting system, somewhere

"have tried"

Quote: teliot

"have tried"

OP said
"and I do not expect to try it out in real life."

maybe someone else tried it out
where due ideas like this come from?
*********************
my craps AP play came from a copy/paste error in Excel fighting with a Markov chain
(sounds like a Meghan Trainor song)
as i always say, i be born this way (lucky)
*********************
for the OP
here are some per-roll house edges you can play with
pass line = -7/1671
don't pass = -9/2228

so I get an expected value of -0.243567 (rounded of course) per roll
(-407/1671 not rounded)
almost 25 cents per roll
for fun!

fun is fun

I just didn't want to make it an overly complicated question, but you're right, let's not ignore those numbers. The way the bet will be split obviously depends on the point because they offer different odds. My trouble here is I'm not sure how to find the expected value when you have to include the come out first and, if you continue, how to factor in a bet that wins either way after that (so, at that point, I have no negative value and I get stuck).

As for the 12, I was wrong, that would be an immediate loss of $8, not $52.

Basically, this "system" pays small rewards if you get past the come out roll....but you loose too much on the come out 7 and 11s for it to work - I just would like to see the actual math behind it.

Lastly, are you even allowed to bet both the pass and don't pass for the come out roll?

You can bet both sides, absolutely.

The expected value is approximately -1.41% of your pass line and don't pass line wagers (added together).

$8 on pass and $52 on DP, 5x odds on pass, all rolls and outcomes taken into effect:

EV = -.82222 per outcome.
HA = 0.949% (lower than 1.414%/1.364% because of your odds bet - your average bet is $86.67).

How to calculate.

Take your outcomes:

2, 3 win 44 x probability 3/36 = $3.6667
7, 11 lose 44 x probability 8/36 = -$9.7778
12 lose 8 x probability 1/36 = -$0.2222

4, 10: ((40 x 2 + 8 - 52) x probability 3/9 + (52 - 48) x probability 6/9) x probability 6/36 = $2.4444
5, 9: (40 x 1.5 + 8 - 52) x probability 4/10 + (52 - 48) x probability 6/10) x probability 8/36 = $1.9556
6, 8: (40 x 1.2 + 8 - 52) x probability 5/11 + (52 - 48) x probability 6/11) x probability 10/36 = $1.1111

Add up all of the outcomes to get -0.82222 EV which works out to HA of 1.37% without odds (1.414% x 8/60 + 1.364% x 52/60 go figger)
Average bet = $60 x 12 / 36 + $100 x 24 /36 = $86.6667
HA = -EV / Average Bet = 0.949% with odds.

Please send a check for $5 to Boymimbo Enterprise, Niagara Falls Canada.

Quote: Plloen

I just would like to see the actual math behind it.

now you have the
per bet
and per roll
values to play with.

the per-roll values i showed are easy to use, imo.
just multiply the $bet * the HE * the number of rolls

of course expected value by itself is really useless for any one played session (cuz it be an average)
variance helps out to see the picture in things like

a) if i played for 100 rolls what is my chance to show a profit
and
if i have a profit what would be my average win?

b) how much bankroll should I have if i want to have a 1 in 20 chance of ruin over an hour of play?
1 in 10 chance?
c) would the risk of ruin to my session bankroll be
higher or lower compared to just $8 pass and $40 odds? and by how much?
d) what would be my chances to double a $1000 starting session buy-in before bankroll ruin?

and so on
many find these type questions meaningless in a players session of play
they know you always lose the ev every time
always
(craps experts like Frank Scoblete says this very often, especially when the craps shooters roll random rolls)

so
you now have lots of opinions
opinions
as answers to your question(s)
take it for what it is and prove to yourself

and thank you for sharing

Quote: RS

You can bet both sides, absolutely.

only if allowed. in other words not 100% of the time.

the popular "shoot to win" craps machine i have seen and played, most times do NOT allow it
even at the $1 min bet

that is funny,
but so are
casinos
and
humans

Quote: boymimbo

7, 11 lose 44 x probability 8/46 = -$9.7778

Please send a check for $5 to Boymimbo Enterprise, Niagara Falls Canada.

has this factored in the error your posted of 8/46
i hope so

i due knot have an account where i can write a check as i due knot believe in the check method.
cash and card 4 me
here is my $5
no need to cash it (good as cash)

IF your birthday can be verified to B in SeptemBER
I can add it to my BDay Calendar
Sally

Quote: mustangsally

has this factored in the error your posted of 8/46
i hope so

i due knot have an account where i can write a check as i due knot believe in the check method.
cash and card 4 me
here is my $5
no need to cash it (good as cash)

IF your birthday can be verified to B in SeptemBER
I can add it to my BDay Calendar
Sally

Yeah, typo. 8/36.
Can I take a photo of it and try to deposit it into my bank?