Monopoly Gameshow Odds

Monopoly Millionaires' Club is a TV show which contestants can earn a chance at 1 million dollars. There are a few mini games which take place prior to the "main event". Each game has a max payout of 100,000$. I'm curious, with optimal strategy/play, would certain games be easier to obtain the 100k than others? I feel like the "Ride the Rails" would be the hardest to win, and "Block Party" would be the easiest. I tried the math, but there are far too many variables and it is too complex compared to my math expertise.

Some of the games lend themselves to player strategy more than others. For example, in Electric Company and Community Chest, the only strategy is to decide whether or not to stop, while Park It and No Vacancy give the player some options (for example, in No Vacancy, you probably want to leave at least one floor with five open rooms as long as possible).

Also remember that it's not just the $100,000 you have to take into account; I don't remember seeing an episode where anybody decided to keep the money rather than risk it for the million, so any stop/go decision has to take into account the possibility that, for example, this is the last player of the game and no one else has more than $50,000, in which case you stop at anything above $50,000 and then risk it for a chance at the million.

I watched the first few episodes but have quickly gotten bored with it. I would think the electric company would be the toughest, but maybe even the one where they roll the dice. In the dice one most people seem to get to a point where there is no way to win and the game is over.

There are only 4 roll combinations that would get you 14 (and $100,000) - 6+5+3, 6+5+2+1, 6+4+3+1, 5+4+3+2
It would have been a better game if you can roll as much as you want, as long as you don't get more than 14.

I watched the show for the first time last night. Here are some things I noticed:

-- To be on the show, you must purchase a "Monopoly" scratcher lottery ticket. The game is run in seveal states. If you win the chance to be on the show, they pay to fly you to Las Vegas for the taping. I assume they pay for your lodging too. Having the win your way in, has got to really cut down on your chances of winning on the show.

-- The "player" representing each "section" of about 75 individuals, is actually playing for themself. The "section" gets half their winnings (if any) from the first round game, as an "envy" bonus. It appears that everyone in the section had a chance to be on the show, but some means are used to pick the "player". This selection process also cuts down on your chance to win on the show.

-- Every "player" gets to play one game. The assignment of who plays the first game, the second game, etc. appears to be random.

-- If a player decides to participate in the Million dollar game, they must surrender the money they won in the first game. The surrender also includes the "envy" money for the section.

-- The option to be the player for the Million dollars at the end of the show is initially offered to the top money maker from the first round of games. If that individual decides to keep the money, the option is then passed to the second highest money maker, and so on.



-- Strategy is important in the first round games. It is more important to lock up some money and get to the Million dollar game, than risk it all to try to get $100k.

Quote: Ayecarumba

I watched the show for the first time last night. Here are some things I noticed:

-- To be on the show, you must purchase a "Monopoly" scratcher lottery ticket. The game is run in seveal states. If you win the chance to be on the show, they pay to fly you to Las Vegas for the taping. I assume they pay for your lodging too. Having the win your way in, has got to really cut down on your chances of winning on the show.

-- The option to be the player for the Million dollars at the end of the show is initially offered to the top money maker from the first round of games. If that individual decides to keep the money, the option is then passed to the second highest money maker, and so on.

I am under the impression that the lottery portion of the game has long since ended. Also, it may have originally been a Lotto-style game with a separate Monopoly-based feature.

Also, in the earliest episodes, each contestant would choose in advance whether or not they would risk their winnings to go for the million, and they were revealed from least won to most; if there was a tie for the most won, one of them would be chosen at random. Note that anybody who risks and is not chosen keeps their initial winnings.

Quote: ThatDonGuy

I am under the impression that the lottery portion of the game has long since ended. Also, it may have originally been a Lotto-style game with a separate Monopoly-based feature.

According to the Game website, it started as a scratch off lottey ticket, but was later changed to an instant winner scratch off. It is available in Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, Maine, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota and Tennessee.

Quote: Monopoly Millionaire's Club

Sales for the draw game version of the MONOPOLY MILLIONAIRES' CLUB were lower than expected and the decision was made to discontinue sales while evaluating options for improving the game going forward.

In the meantime, several lotteries have decided to offer an instant ticket version of MONOPOLY MILLIONAIRES' CLUB with instant win prizes and a Second–Chance Drawing for the opportunity to win a trip to Las Vegas and a chance to be selected as a Contestant on the MONOPOLY MILLIONAIRES' CLUB National TV Game Show ("TV Game Show").

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Also, in the earliest episodes, each contestant would choose in advance whether or not they would risk their winnings to go for the million, and they were revealed from least won to most; if there was a tie for the most won, one of them would be chosen at random. Note that anybody who risks and is not chosen keeps their initial winnings.

It appears that the game has evolved. They did not explain any of that in the show, and the game play seems very different, with some contestants (and the entire "envy" section behind them), walking away with no cash at all.

Assuming everyone is going to play optimally and go for the 100k regardless, I'm curious of the odds. Speaking of which, I saw a old man on the show a few nights ago who kept 36k instead of risking it. Needless to say, his section was PISSED.

Quote: hollywoodtoledo

Assuming everyone is going to play optimally and go for the 100k regardless, I'm curious of the odds. Speaking of which, I saw a old man on the show a few nights ago who kept 36k instead of risking it. Needless to say, his section was PISSED.

I think it would be a nice wrinkle to HAVE to go for the 100k. Maybe even make it a progressive as well.

My synicle nature makes me wonder if the games are predetermined like a slot machine or if they are actually random and stay the same after the person makes their pick.

They definitely need to change the prize structure so that someone is tempted to pass on the million dollar game.

Some of their games (like the dice game, parking garage, and others) are not predetermined. But with the bad odds I think each contestant is getting, they wouldn't have to be predetermined. The odds would balance everything.

Quote: hollywoodtoledo

Assuming everyone is going to play optimally and go for the 100k regardless, I'm curious of the odds. Speaking of which, I saw a old man on the show a few nights ago who kept 36k instead of risking it. Needless to say, his section was PISSED.

In the episode I saw, a guy turned down the $1M chance to keep half of $36k (the other half is divided amongst his "envy" section), but this was after the only $100k winner that night turned it down first. The third guy to get the option gave up something like $33k? to go for it. He ended up collecting $70 something thousand just taking the five rolls of the dice, and not hitting or passing GO.

As for odds on the $100k games, the ones I saw, except for the dice game, all required some strategy.
-- 10 trains to pick from with 1 - 10 cars in each. You will pick up to four, one at a time. The first is worth $1k per car, the second $2k per car, the third $3k, and the fourth $5k. Stop each train car reveal whenever you want, to collect the money. If you see a caboose, you collect no money from that train, but do not lose cash you have accumulated from prior trains. Collect $50k from the trains, and get the $100k. If you choose the shortest trains, it is possible to never be in the running to get the $100k (1,2,3 and 4 cars long for $5k, $3k, $2k and $1k each, you will collect the minimum for "all trains" of $22k if you maxed them all correctly). Of course, you could be the world's worst player and collect nothing by letting all the trains run to their caboose.

-- The vault game requries the player to choose 5-6? keys, one at a time from a pool of 6 pairs. Each key is assigned to one of six "locks", each with a different pre-determined value ($20k, $12k, and lesser amounts). If the second key in a pair is selected, the lock re-engages, and the value is lost. Unlock three? locks and win $100k, hit two "pairs" and lose everything. I am not sure how many keys had to be picked as I stepped away, but this game seems pretty random. However, you do need to be able to calculate the odds of choosing a pair from the keys that remain. The lady playing when I watched decided to quit with two keys to go, and two locks open (the two largest values). With two locks open, she should have gone for it.

-- Roll a single oversized die to try to collect $50k if you can hit a total of 14 exactly. Each step is a $1k increment (e.g., roll a 1, get $1,000, then roll a six and collect $7,000 for a total of $8k, etc.) However, you lose everything if you roll the same number twice. Eventually, the odds on this game come down to 1-6, as you get within six steps of the $100k goal, but I estimate a 50% chance you will already be mathematically eliminated by the time you get there, since you cannot roll doubles. Therfore, I will guesstimate 1 chance in 12 for this game..

Quote: Ayecarumba

Eventually, the odds on this game come down to 1-6, as you get within six steps of the $100k goal, but I estimate a 50% chance you will already be mathematically eliminated by the time you get there, since you cannot roll doubles. Therfore, I will guesstimate 1 chance in 12 for this game..

Are you sure it's not 1-11?

Quote: GWAE

Are you sure it's not 1-11?

Hehe... no.

Actually, the lady who was rolling the die had rolled a five and a two (which total 7 so are on two opposing faces). Since the die was about 8" on a side, I thought it would be simple to "barrel roll" it with the five and two on the sides, but she opted to toss it in the air and take her chances.

Given the implements, I think this game presents an opportunity for the player with a certain set of skills.