Possible Rigging Of Craps Game
Event Times Prob Expected
Pass Line Win 27 0.222222 23.33331
Pass Line Lose 10 0.111111 11.666655
Point 4 win 2 0.027778 2.91669
Point 5 win 2 0.0444445 4.6666725
Point 6 win 3 0.0631315 6.6288075
Point 8 win 9 0.0631315 6.6288075
Point 9 win 2 0.0444445 4.6666725
Point 10 win 0 0.027778 2.91669
Point 4 lose 9 0.0555555 5.8333275
Point 5 lose 8 0.0666665 6.9999825
point 6 lose 12 0.0757575 7.9545375
point 8 lose 3 0.0757575 7.9545375
point 9 lose 12 0.0555555 5.8333275
point 10 lose 6 0.027778 2.91669
Total 105
Chi Sqd Result 0.013735091
Quote: rainmanYour playing at a casino that was caught cheating in the past???... You sir deserve every loss you got coming!
Not this casino specifically but the software after several name changes was the one that had a "glitch" on one of their games about 7 years ago that caused a non-random occurance in one of their games. I didn't really consider that a reason to blacklist them, I am also analyzing some blackjack results from them which may actually look worse then the craps stats....
It was more interesting then anything else.
This casino seems more and more dubious to be bad luck the more results I analyze...I also have some roulette ones where betting black I saw Red 10 times in a row...
Quote: ontariodealerIf you ever gamble on anything at any time and its not done right in front of you then look up the words Caveat Emptor.
How true, I am just hoping to see how much mathmatical evidence I can get then perhaps start visting other forums and warning people from playing at this casino and it's rogue software.
I am still not convinced it's rigged, all sample sizes are limited and I could be doing the math on it wrong which is why I am posting here for people to take a look at and give opinions on the matter.
Thanks to all who have responded so far!
Quote: DarkMageI am still not convinced it's rigged, all sample sizes are limited
I looked at the dice results - a little over 110 rolls.
If you had around 10000, I think we could start meaningfully considering the data. I understand your hesitation to go and collect more data, however.
Quote: DieterI looked at the dice results - a little over 110 rolls.
If you had around 10000, I think we could start meaningfully considering the data. I understand your hesitation to go and collect more data, however.
110 rolls going the exact opposite way on the Dark Side would convince me.
Quote: Mission146110 rolls going the exact opposite way on the Dark Side would convince me.
To be honest I wouldn't mind sacraficing $50 more to see if the opposite would occur on dark side betting. Will take me a day or so to get around to it though.
update: just finished dark side craps session, the 7 magically became one of the least rolled numbers, analyzing the data now.
No longer convinced it's bad luck, I'm leaning towards RIGGED
But for those who just want a quick view:
Pass Line betting with come bets: 123 trials
Number of 7's Rolled: 31
Number Expected: 19.8373
Dark Side Betting(Don't Pass and Don't come bets) 223 trials
Number of 7's rolled: 20
Expected: 37.1741
How interesting....hmmmmm
But really why are you withholding the name of the casino ? I can only assume it's associated with a casino advertised with this site or LBC, like BV. Knowing everyone is already suspicious of online casinos, it wouldn't take much for most to believe its rigged. Especially if it was an unknown site. Once you have the villagers riled up, you spring an accredited casino on us?
Way more rolls are needed especially since someone could easily cherry pick a bad series of rolls.
Quote: AxelWolfIm not doubting it could be rigged.
But really why are you withholding the name of the casino ? I can only assume it's associated with a casino advertised with this site or LBC, like BV. Knowing everyone is already suspicious of online casinos, it wouldn't take much for most to believe its rigged. Especially if it was an unknown site. Once you have the villagers riled up, you spring an accredited casino on us?
Way more rolls are needed especially since someone could easily cherry pick a bad series of rolls.
Name is being withheld for the exact reason that I have not proven anything, more trials will be conducted in the upcoming week on all their games but with a focus on craps.
If this "abnormal" bad luck goes from a horrible run to statistically significent then I will gladly post the name of the casino, until then I don't think it's fair to name them until I am mathmatically SURE the software is unfair.(I'm sure some of you who were around in 2006 know exactly what software this is...given the hint I gave)
I will be conducting 2 more trials of both pass line betting and dark side betting again sometime today.
I doubt with these results I am getting time after time I will need 10,000 rolls to show statistical proof of unfairness.
In addition every roll I do is on video.
Quote:Way more rolls are needed especially since someone could easily cherry pick a bad series of rolls.
I have never had a good series of rolls at this casino in my short experience with it.....which amazes me.
No personal glory in proof of legitimacy, I guess. Or you have an axe to grind with online casinos, like 4ofakind, and will only show results that help sharpen your axe.
Instead of prematurely claiming rigged, the title could have simply said ONLINE CASINO DATA FOR XXXXX.
Again, I'm not on the casinos side, lots of online casinos cheat (I was around playing online before, during and after 2006, ● since 1998 ●). I just think the way you're going about this stinks.
Quote: DarkMageDark Side results added to the OP.
But for those who just want a quick view:
Pass Line betting with come bets: 123 trials
Number of 7's Rolled: 31
Number Expected: 19.8373
Dark Side Betting(Don't Pass and Don't come bets) 223 trials
Number of 7's rolled: 20
Expected: 37.1741
How interesting....hmmmmm
Thanks for the summary.
Using the Gaussian approximation, the probability of 31 or more sevens in 119 rolls is 0.002054176.
Using the Gaussian approximation, the probability of 20 or less sevens in 223 rolls is 0.001373287.
Quote: WizardThanks for the summary.
Using the Gaussian approximation, the probability of 31 or more sevens in 119 rolls is 0.002054176.
Using the Gaussian approximation, the probability of 20 or less sevens in 223 rolls is 0.001373287.
Seem to be pretty slim odds,
I just finished another dark side session, to be fair not as absolutely terrible as all the others.
I do congratulate the shooter on the 25 and 26 consecutive rolls without a 7 in 33 sets of rolls........
Which is a 0.02999374 and 0.02586937 chance to happen....
Only 10 below expectations this time with dark side betting, yet to see one session where the number of 7's was greater or equal to expectations.
2 20 - expectation was 7.228....
3 12
4 29
5 35 expect- 21
6 33
7 34 43.3432
8 33
9 28
10 26
11 10
12 10
Total rolls: 260
Quote: DarkMageEvent Times Prob Expected
Pass Line Win 27 0.222222 23.33331
Pass Line Lose 10 0.111111 11.666655
Point 4 win 2 0.027778 2.91669
Point 5 win 2 0.0444445 4.6666725
Point 6 win 3 0.0631315 6.6288075
Point 8 win 9 0.0631315 6.6288075
Point 9 win 2 0.0444445 4.6666725
Point 10 win 0 0.027778 2.91669
Point 4 lose 9 0.0555555 5.8333275
Point 5 lose 8 0.0666665 6.9999825
point 6 lose 12 0.0757575 7.9545375
point 8 lose 3 0.0757575 7.9545375
point 9 lose 12 0.0555555 5.8333275
point 10 lose 6 0.027778 2.91669
Total 105
Chi Sqd Result 0.013735091
I can't see anything wrong on that table. You do realize the missing factor of 100 on the last two columns, right ?
