UnattendedBag
UnattendedBag
Joined: Jun 26, 2013
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June 26th, 2013 at 12:35:19 PM permalink
Well I think it is at least hahaha....

So I was wondering what the chances of guessing the winning hand were preflop?

Suppose there are 2 players at a table and one observer can see both players cards. After the players are dealt their 2 cards and before the flop is shown, the observer then guesses which player will win the hand after the river. Assuming the observer guesses the hand with the highest winning probability, what are the odds of this person being correct?


I hope I explained this clearly enough.

Edit/ I'm looking for the overall probability of them being successful, not the odds of them being correct on one specific trial.

EE/ I'm guessing it's around 65-75% but I have no math to back that up and would greatly appreciate someone with deeper statistical knowledge to help out...

Maybe it's the average of the chance of the underdog winning?
jml24
jml24
Joined: Feb 28, 2011
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June 26th, 2013 at 12:47:00 PM permalink
I might not understand your question but the answer seems trivial. Calculating the win probability of the two hands is not trivial but there are numerous calculators available that do it using random simulations. One example is the CardPlayer poker calculator. Once you know that hand A wins 56% of the time for example, if you guess hand A then you are correct 56% of the time. I have a feeling this is not the answer you wanted so maybe you can clarify the question.
UnattendedBag
UnattendedBag
Joined: Jun 26, 2013
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June 26th, 2013 at 12:51:35 PM permalink
I guess to clarify more, I'm looking for the overall probability of them being right, not on a case by case basis.

Like approx how many hands will they be right out of 100 trials, not what is the chance they will be right on this one trial.

Does that make more sense?
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
Joined: Mar 11, 2010
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June 26th, 2013 at 1:12:16 PM permalink
So, what are the odds that the player with better hold cards will go on to win the hand?
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
UnattendedBag
UnattendedBag
Joined: Jun 26, 2013
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June 26th, 2013 at 1:17:05 PM permalink
Quote: rdw4potus

So, what are the odds that the player with better hold cards will go on to win the hand?



I'm looking for the long term trend, but yes. Assuming that no players fold

That is a much easier way to say it though.......
tringlomane
tringlomane
Joined: Aug 25, 2012
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June 26th, 2013 at 1:43:10 PM permalink
From a quick 600,000 Trial Monte Carlo simulation using the program linked below, roughly 62%. This counts a tie at the river as a "loss".

http://www.propokertools.com/pql

PQL Query:
select count(winsHi(p1))
from game="holdem", p1="**", p2="**"
where equity(p1, preflop) >= equity(p2, preflop)
Results:
Trials COUNT 1
600000 372225 (62.04%)
UnattendedBag
UnattendedBag
Joined: Jun 26, 2013
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June 26th, 2013 at 2:05:10 PM permalink
wow very interesting tool, thanks!

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