dwheatley
Joined: Nov 16, 2009
• Posts: 1246
August 10th, 2011 at 12:37:58 PM permalink
Ok, I thought too much about this that I had to throw together a simulation. Coding was quick & good practice for me. Numbers are very interesting and very promising for the aspiring baccarat counter. It seems the bet turns profitable around 9%-9.5% concentration, which is not too far from the initial concentration of 7.7%. I estimate this happens 1 every 5 hands PER CARD over a 8 deck shoe with 7 decks dealt out. That is, one in every 5 hands a specific card will be betable, and if you track all cards, then almost every hand you'll have a good bet.

Hard to say if the choice of card matters much, all the bets seem to turn profitable around the same spot, too much variability even across 10000 shoes to find the exact spot.

Next steps:
-test whether good betting occasions really happen that often
-simulate betting when concentrations peak over 9% or 9.5%, track profit. Then we can tell if it's worth your time.
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it
dwheatley
Joined: Nov 16, 2009
• Posts: 1246
August 10th, 2011 at 12:46:07 PM permalink
I have confirmed that at least one card will be 9% or better 64% of the time, and 9.5% or better 50% of the time in an 8 deck shoe with 1 deck cut.

If you only bet with a 9.5% or higher density across all cards, profits in 1 simulation of 10000 shoes was 18340 units, or around 2 units per shoe.

Not huge profit, but I'd say enough to make it worth it if you can track all the cards with pen&paper.
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it
dwheatley
Joined: Nov 16, 2009
• Posts: 1246
August 10th, 2011 at 1:43:51 PM permalink
I just ran a 1,000,000 shoe simulation, and got a profit of 12 units per shoe if you bet at 9.5% density or higher for every number.

12 units per shoe is some serious profit, almost worth a special trip. I suspect the variance will be rough, tough to estimate that through my simulation.

Someone needs to design a counting strategy to estimate when you hit 9.5% or higher.

EDIT: Another 1,000,000 shoe simulation showed a profit of 18 units per shoe. This is countable, but the variance will eat you up

Also, the 9 seems to be the weakest in terms of exploiting for card counting. Best to wait until the 9 hits almost 10% before betting it.
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it
andysif
Joined: Aug 8, 2011
• Posts: 433
August 10th, 2011 at 7:06:42 PM permalink
you the man.
if it is indeed profitable at the 9-10% range, it is much more worthwhile than the 13% estimate. Meanwhile, I will try to reconcile the difference using the primitive way - Excel.
andysif
Joined: Aug 8, 2011
• Posts: 433
August 10th, 2011 at 7:46:25 PM permalink
yes, my original estimate of 13 is indeed flawed, big time.
The 2 cards pay 3 and 3 cards pay 20 had a big impact on the return and using my primitive tool (that's Excel) I got a +'ve return at around 9% as well.
andysif
Joined: Aug 8, 2011
• Posts: 433
August 10th, 2011 at 7:58:42 PM permalink
Quote: dwheatley

I have confirmed that at least one card will be 9% or better 64% of the time, and 9.5% or better 50% of the time in an 8 deck shoe with 1 deck cut.

If you only bet with a 9.5% or higher density across all cards, profits in 1 simulation of 10000 shoes was 18340 units, or around 2 units per shoe.

Not huge profit, but I'd say enough to make it worth it if you can track all the cards with pen&paper.

Quote: dwheatley

I just ran a 1,000,000 shoe simulation, and got a profit of 12 units per shoe if you bet at 9.5% density or higher for every number.

12 units per shoe is some serious profit, almost worth a special trip. I suspect the variance will be rough, tough to estimate that through my simulation.

Someone needs to design a counting strategy to estimate when you hit 9.5% or higher.

EDIT: Another 1,000,000 shoe simulation showed a profit of 18 units per shoe. This is countable, but the variance will eat you up

Also, the 9 seems to be the weakest in terms of exploiting for card counting. Best to wait until the 9 hits almost 10% before betting it.

Sorry but i want to clarify something. In the first post you said profit is 2 units per shoe, in the second you quoted a figure of 12 and 18. Is the first figure a typo or is the variance really that great?
dwheatley
Joined: Nov 16, 2009
• Posts: 1246
August 10th, 2011 at 8:38:45 PM permalink
The variance really looks that ridiculous. I might run some more batches of shoes tomorrow to double check, and start trying to estimate the variance.

You can calculate the variance on the bet itself, which will be quite large. The variance will only increase as you play more shoes.
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it
acw
Joined: Oct 10, 2011
• Posts: 52
October 10th, 2011 at 5:46:42 PM permalink
Quote: dwheatley

I just ran a 1,000,000 shoe simulation, and got a profit of 12 units per shoe if you bet at 9.5% density or higher for every number.

12 units per shoe is some serious profit, almost worth a special trip. I suspect the variance will be rough, tough to estimate that through my simulation.

Someone needs to design a counting strategy to estimate when you hit 9.5% or higher.

EDIT: Another 1,000,000 shoe simulation showed a profit of 18 units per shoe. This is countable, but the variance will eat you up

Also, the 9 seems to be the weakest in terms of exploiting for card counting. Best to wait until the 9 hits almost 10% before betting it.

That all depends on how deep they go into the shoe! How deep were you assuming?

Anyhow you may all cancel your flights now, since they changed the payouts:

New Payout
ssho88
Joined: Oct 16, 2011
• Posts: 625
October 16th, 2011 at 7:11:29 AM permalink
Based on old payout, my initial simulation shown that the break even point is at 9.18% density.

I don't think you need a special counting system, what you have to do is just record how many cards for each rank( Ace to King) left in the shoe and then divide by total cards in the shoe to get the density ! Bet when above the break even point ! Am I right ?

Will run a detail simulation(for old payout) to find out the edge, variance, betting frequency/opportunity and return per shoe.

Will also simulate for new payout.

Old payout : (0,-1), (1,1), (2,3), (3,20), (4,40), (5,60) and (6,100).

New payout : (0,-1), (1,1), (2,2), (3,15), (4,30), (5,60) and (6,100).