Hard to say if the choice of card matters much, all the bets seem to turn profitable around the same spot, too much variability even across 10000 shoes to find the exact spot.

Next steps:

-test whether good betting occasions really happen that often

-simulate betting when concentrations peak over 9% or 9.5%, track profit. Then we can tell if it's worth your time.

If you only bet with a 9.5% or higher density across all cards, profits in 1 simulation of 10000 shoes was 18340 units, or around 2 units per shoe.

Not huge profit, but I'd say enough to make it worth it if you can track all the cards with pen&paper.

12 units per shoe is some serious profit, almost worth a special trip. I suspect the variance will be rough, tough to estimate that through my simulation.

Someone needs to design a counting strategy to estimate when you hit 9.5% or higher.

EDIT: Another 1,000,000 shoe simulation showed a profit of 18 units per shoe. This is countable, but the variance will eat you up

Also, the 9 seems to be the weakest in terms of exploiting for card counting. Best to wait until the 9 hits almost 10% before betting it.

if it is indeed profitable at the 9-10% range, it is much more worthwhile than the 13% estimate. Meanwhile, I will try to reconcile the difference using the primitive way - Excel.

The 2 cards pay 3 and 3 cards pay 20 had a big impact on the return and using my primitive tool (that's Excel) I got a +'ve return at around 9% as well.

Quote:dwheatleyI have confirmed that at least one card will be 9% or better 64% of the time, and 9.5% or better 50% of the time in an 8 deck shoe with 1 deck cut.

If you only bet with a 9.5% or higher density across all cards, profits in 1 simulation of 10000 shoes was 18340 units, or around 2 units per shoe.

Not huge profit, but I'd say enough to make it worth it if you can track all the cards with pen&paper.

Quote:dwheatleyI just ran a 1,000,000 shoe simulation, and got a profit of 12 units per shoe if you bet at 9.5% density or higher for every number.

12 units per shoe is some serious profit, almost worth a special trip. I suspect the variance will be rough, tough to estimate that through my simulation.

Someone needs to design a counting strategy to estimate when you hit 9.5% or higher.

EDIT: Another 1,000,000 shoe simulation showed a profit of 18 units per shoe. This is countable, but the variance will eat you up

Also, the 9 seems to be the weakest in terms of exploiting for card counting. Best to wait until the 9 hits almost 10% before betting it.

Sorry but i want to clarify something. In the first post you said profit is 2 units per shoe, in the second you quoted a figure of 12 and 18. Is the first figure a typo or is the variance really that great?

You can calculate the variance on the bet itself, which will be quite large. The variance will only increase as you play more shoes.

Quote:dwheatleyI just ran a 1,000,000 shoe simulation, and got a profit of 12 units per shoe if you bet at 9.5% density or higher for every number.

12 units per shoe is some serious profit, almost worth a special trip. I suspect the variance will be rough, tough to estimate that through my simulation.

Someone needs to design a counting strategy to estimate when you hit 9.5% or higher.

EDIT: Another 1,000,000 shoe simulation showed a profit of 18 units per shoe. This is countable, but the variance will eat you up

Also, the 9 seems to be the weakest in terms of exploiting for card counting. Best to wait until the 9 hits almost 10% before betting it.

That all depends on how deep they go into the shoe! How deep were you assuming?

Anyhow you may all cancel your flights now, since they changed the payouts:

New Payout

I don't think you need a special counting system, what you have to do is just record how many cards for each rank( Ace to King) left in the shoe and then divide by total cards in the shoe to get the density ! Bet when above the break even point ! Am I right ?

Will run a detail simulation(for old payout) to find out the edge, variance, betting frequency/opportunity and return per shoe.

Will also simulate for new payout.

Old payout : (0,-1), (1,1), (2,3), (3,20), (4,40), (5,60) and (6,100).

New payout : (0,-1), (1,1), (2,2), (3,15), (4,30), (5,60) and (6,100).

Please give your comments/feedback in order to get better simulation.

cheers