Reasonable Expectations

Thank you for all of the information. It is very helpful, but sometimes overwhelming. My question is one of putting everything together and setting a reasonable expection when playing blackjack assuming standard betting, playing the correct percentages, risk of ruin, etc......

Here's the setup and my question....
I hit the black jack table with $200.00 to gamble. I only bet $10 ($15 seems too high of a risk of ruin for $200 bank). I play straight down the odds for surrender, doubling, hitting and splitting. Clearly I can lose my $200.00, but what is a reasonable return, should I be fortunate enough to win. Clearly the longer I play, the closer I will get to losing per the house odds. If I double my money to $400.00......based upon $10.00 bets, should that be considered a win to go home? Of course I would like to win $10,000.00 but that is unrealistic at $10 per hand.

The second question if I should be fortunate enough to double my money to $400 say very quickly, should I then double my standard bet to $15 or $20?

Thanks again for the information as I find if you set your limits prior to hitting the table you are less likely to make a poor decision in the heat of the moment.

Dave

>I hit the black jack table with $200.00 to gamble.
At ten dollars ... you have ONE hour's playing time and that involves a ten percent chance of Risk of Ruin within that time. This, of course, requires perfect play and makes no allowance for dealer or cocktail waitress tips. Perfect play plus the usual variance can still wipe you out.

>Clearly I can lose my $200.00, but what is a reasonable return, should I be fortunate enough to win.
>Clearly the longer I play, the closer I will get to losing per the house odds.
>If I double my money to $400.00, should that be considered a win to go home?
You are quite correct that you should set your decision points prior to the start of play. It is best to stick with them too. However, raising your bet to 15 or 20 is simply the equivalent of coming back the next day with those winnings. Its no different other than the fatigue and alcohol factors. If you have 400.00 you have ONE hour's playing time at 20.00 and that has a ten percent risk of ruin.
So from the point you opt to take your winnings and up your bet, you are exactly the same situation as before, its just that now you are doing 20.00 instead of 10.00 and you already have some booze and some desire for a dinner.
If instead you continue at 10.00 bets your 400.00 provides you with just a tad under Four Hours of playing time at that same standard level of a ten percent risk of ruin. However this four hours requires perfect play and I don't think that the conversation, beautiful cocktail waitresses, elapsed time, alcohol intake and various tips will mean that you are engaging in Perfect Play for four solid hours. It just doesn't happen.

Dave- others may follow up with exact chances of you losing your $200 before you double it to $400, but YOU must decided why you are at the casino. I personally never go with a 'win goal' other than to be up when I leave, if possible, while not limiting my play time to some very short interval. In other words, if I win my first hand for $25 I do not leave, but if I have been up $300 and am dwindling down I will not go below a small win. I think setting a loss limit is of course reasonable, and that depends on your personal financial situation. But if I take the time to drive to, or fly to, a casino, then I am most likely having boatloads of fun while up, and time permitting, want to keep playing, rather than move on to some non-gambling activity. But if it makes YOU feel good, to say, double your money, then of course quit when you achieve that goal.

Quote: d2usher

Thank you for all of the information. It is very helpful, but sometimes overwhelming. My question is one of putting everything together and setting a reasonable expection when playing blackjack assuming standard betting, playing the correct percentages, risk of ruin, etc......

Here's the setup and my question....
I hit the black jack table with $200.00 to gamble. I only bet $10 ($15 seems too high of a risk of ruin for $200 bank). I play straight down the odds for surrender, doubling, hitting and splitting. Clearly I can lose my $200.00, but what is a reasonable return, should I be fortunate enough to win. Clearly the longer I play, the closer I will get to losing per the house odds. If I double my money to $400.00......based upon $10.00 bets, should that be considered a win to go home? Of course I would like to win $10,000.00 but that is unrealistic at $10 per hand.

The second question if I should be fortunate enough to double my money to $400 say very quickly, should I then double my standard bet to $15 or $20?

Thanks again for the information as I find if you set your limits prior to hitting the table you are less likely to make a poor decision in the heat of the moment.

Dave

You are seriously over betting and if I understand correctly you are flat betting as well. This is not a recipe for winning. Play lower minimums if possible or ideally get at least a $1000 bankroll.

Since you are playing one lifetime session, there is no reason to quit because you have won or lost. Play until you get tired,bored or have to be somewhere. I stop playing when the tables get overly crowded.

>You are seriously over betting
I don't see that though I will admit it seems a very narrow margin. Its true that Lady Variance may rear her ugly head but she might also be a lady for that one hour of play too.
>you are flat betting as well.
No shame in that is there?

Since you are playing one lifetime session
We are all doing that, but many of us make use of certain cues to inform us of the wisdom of our actions during that one lifetime session. If the wife shows up with divorce papers, its probably a sign you should have quit. If you are falling asleep, you should have quit. If you won enough to declare yourself "a winner" then leaving the table is easier than staying. If you are convinced that your luck will change with just one more bet then there is a reason to quit.

i am not sure how I am overbetting when the table minimums seem to be $10.00 and my bankroll is only at $200 - but be that as it may, that's what I take and that's the minimum I can bet.

As for flat betting, i am not sure what that means...but if it means I bet $10.00 every time and then double/surrender/split/etc...when I am supposed to, then yes I am flat betting. According to the "Wizard", he hasn't found a betting scheme that actually works. Regardless, I can live in that shame as well as I am going to have fun, have "free" drinks, admire the waitresses and to try to be better than the odds.

FleaStiff - thanks for your comments at the top as that was hitting close to my real question. My real question was that I assumed somewhere there is some sort of distribution, like within a standard deviation or two of what a person betting the $10.00 could realistically win. Clearly you could lose it all, but I got to assume that I shouldn't walk into a casino at a $10.00 table thinking that I could win $20,000.00 as an example.

Typically when I play, I go up and down and in agreement with FleaStiff the cocktails and waitresses and interesting conversations with my buddies all serve to undermine my good decision making...but in the end, I rarely walk out at my highwater mark, usually I play too long and work my way back to zero. So, assuming there are no divorce papers being served :-) and I have as many hours to kill as I want, I am wondering statisically when to declare "I won" for the evening. I am sure the "wizard" in all the sample games played would be able to say....if you are in fact up X% or $X starting with a $200 bankroll and $10 bets, statistically speaking you have won.

d2- there are many here who can tell you what your chances are of reaching a certain goal given the odds of a particular game and your starting bankroll, but only you can determine that goal. It sounds like you and your friends have a good time at the tables, and it seems like if you were up some predetermined amount but your buds wanted to keep playing that you would be unlikely to stop and say- 'nope, I'm up $300 so I'm quitting'. But to answer your question... try this- if you are ever up double your starting bankroll (up $200) then play until you are up $100 and stop. If by some miracle you are up more, then add $100 to your 'stop' point for every extra $200 you are up. Also, statistically speaking you have won when you have more chips in front of you than cash you put in the drop baox. Even if it is $1.

Thanks SOOPOO.
That's a good rule of thumb to follow and what I try to do. That way you test your limits but still can walk away with something in your pocket.........I just had figured somebody smarter than me might have some statistics to back it up because you don't win or lose in a straight line..it curves up and down within some sort of distribution pattern and there has to be a norm and standard deviation to back up this normal distribution of highs and lows. Armed with this information, you could then look at your bankroll and betting and have a more informed stopping point.

Appreciate everyone's post and conversations!

Quote: d2usher

My real question was that I assumed somewhere there is some sort of distribution, like within a standard deviation or two of what a person betting the $10.00 could realistically win. Clearly you could lose it all, but I got to assume that I shouldn't walk into a casino at a $10.00 table thinking that I could win $20,000.00 as an example.

Typically when I play, I go up and down and in agreement with FleaStiff the cocktails and waitresses and interesting conversations with my buddies all serve to undermine my good decision making...but in the end, I rarely walk out at my highwater mark, usually I play too long and work my way back to zero. So, assuming there are no divorce papers being served :-) and I have as many hours to kill as I want, I am wondering statisically when to declare "I won" for the evening. I am sure the "wizard" in all the sample games played would be able to say....if you are in fact up X% or $X starting with a $200 bankroll and $10 bets, statistically speaking you have won.

The Wizard at his WoO site HERE has a table to compute RoR for betting units vs. hands played. I know that is not what you are asking about, but is is good information to have since it does show that the longer one expects to play the higher the RoR is with a same bankroll.
I have not seen any tables from simulations that he has run working with win goals but I am sure he has run many.

A few sims I did in the past may give you some information. These were based on 6 deck and dealer hits soft 17.
$200 bankroll = 20 betting units at $10. (5% of bankroll)
-------------------------------------------------------------------
$400 win goal 26% / 74% bust
Hands: median:546; mean (average):767

$200 win goal 45% / 55% bust
Hands: median:302; mean (average):397

$100 win goal 63% / 37% bust
Hands: median:150 mean value:205

$50 win goal 78% / 22% bust
Hands: median:55 mean value:101
----------------------------------------------------------------
Gaming guru Alan Krigman has an article HERE about BJ bet sizes and risk of ruin.
His results in his table are quite close to my simulation results.

I also am not aware of any win goal BJ formulas. There may be, for me simulations are an easy way to go.

Gee I might not be so dumb after all. I usually take $200 to BJ table and if I get $50 up I reinvest (lol) in penny slots

Quote: d2usher

i am not sure how I am overbetting when the table minimums seem to be $10.00 and my bankroll is only at $200 - but be that as it may, that's what I take and that's the minimum I can bet.

As for flat betting, i am not sure what that means...but if it means I bet $10.00 every time and then double/surrender/split/etc...when I am supposed to, then yes I am flat betting. According to the "Wizard", he hasn't found a betting scheme that actually works. Regardless, I can live in that shame as well as I am going to have fun, have "free" drinks, admire the waitresses and to try to be better than the odds.

FleaStiff - thanks for your comments at the top as that was hitting close to my real question. My real question was that I assumed somewhere there is some sort of distribution, like within a standard deviation or two of what a person betting the $10.00 could realistically win. Clearly you could lose it all, but I got to assume that I shouldn't walk into a casino at a $10.00 table thinking that I could win $20,000.00 as an example.

Typically when I play, I go up and down and in agreement with FleaStiff the cocktails and waitresses and interesting conversations with my buddies all serve to undermine my good decision making...but in the end, I rarely walk out at my highwater mark, usually I play too long and work my way back to zero. So, assuming there are no divorce papers being served :-) and I have as many hours to kill as I want, I am wondering statisically when to declare "I won" for the evening. I am sure the "wizard" in all the sample games played would be able to say....if you are in fact up X% or $X starting with a $200 bankroll and $10 bets, statistically speaking you have won.

Dave:

I'm not trying to throw a wet blanket over your hopes and aspirations but you need to know the facts. Betting 5% of your bankroll is over betting. Once you start losing, you'll be betting more than 5%. When you've lost the first $100, you'll be betting 10%. Sure, you'll have your ups and downs but many times that $200 will be gone before your car's engine cools down.

Of course there is no shame in flat betting. Those were not my words but the words of another poster. I can tell you first hand that flat betting allows the house edge to grind you down. As a card counter, I've suffered many losses flat betting while waiting for the count to rise.

My comments about one lifetime session were referring to blackjack since that's what we are discussing. There is no difference between a 30 minute break and a 30 day break. When you return, it's the same odds, same tables etc. Nothing has changed. People do like to leave a winner and I get that.

You fit into the category of most blackjack players with your buy in and betting habits and that's not a bad thing. You know basic strategy so go out and enjoy the game. You're not going to beat it long term but you certainly know enough to keep the losses to a minimum.

Michael Bluejay has a nice chart on his website that shows betting units required for various games. Go to VegasClick.com

Guido - Thanks for the Sims info that helps a bunch.

Benbakdoff - thanks for your explanation on the over betting. I guess that's one way the house nails us low dollar rec. gamblers.
Can you humor me with a further explanation on your flat betting comments? I thought the "wizard" made his point pretty clearly that betting schemes don't work - hence my philosophy of flat betting.

Quote: d2usher

Benbakdoff - thanks for your explanation on the over betting. I guess that's one way the house nails us low dollar rec. gamblers.
Can you humor me with a further explanation on your flat betting comments? I thought the "wizard" made his point pretty clearly that betting schemes don't work - hence my philosophy of flat betting.

You're always going to lose more hands than you win and flat betting which is betting the same amount every time can't make up for that. You need to increase your bets and that is the basic strategy players dilemma. When do you increase your bets? Without counting cards there's no way to know.

The best you can do is pay attention to the cards dealt and increase your bet after seeing a disproportionate amount of small cards.

I don't see all that much wrong with hoping to turn ten dollars into twenty grand. We all walk into the singles bar hoping the stunning blonde will throw herself at our feet and shower us with money if only we will drag her by the hair to the pool table and do her right there and then. Its just a question of realizing that neither is likely to actually happen that night. Or ever.

There is a range... its called apparently Variance. Somebody can get lucky. Usually its the casino that gets lucky. Most such calculations are expressed in the standard 'ten percent chance that Lady Variance and her customary infidelity will bankrupt you'. At two hundred dollars and ten dollar bets, you have a statistical expectation of being able to play for One Hour of blackjack. If you throw in a few drinks and a few pretty girls ... your Perfect Play probably deteriorates which shortens that one hour.

For some its "time at table". For others its "dollars won". The current bias in Vegas is that Chinese females will leave the casino if they win big but that Chinese males will continue gambling no matter what. Perhaps that bias is valid, perhaps not. If Lady Variance smiles favorably upon you during that first hour of play, you can do whatever you want with the winnings. Spend them on a slot machine perhaps or spend them at a blackjack table? Depends what you enjoy.