Instanto18
Instanto18
Joined: Oct 5, 2010
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January 14th, 2011 at 11:33:19 PM permalink
What are the odds of doubling a buy-in? For example, if I had $100, and played $5 a hand, at blackjack (perfect strat, one card on aces, but Aces split to 4 times like other cards, double after split, double on first 2 cards only, 3:2, dealer checks for BJ first), what are the chances I would make it to $200 before going broke?
P90
P90
Joined: Jan 8, 2011
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January 15th, 2011 at 12:17:53 AM permalink
Quote: Instanto18

What are the odds of doubling a buy-in? For example, if I had $100, and played $5 a hand, at blackjack (perfect strat, one card on aces, but Aces split to 4 times like other cards, double after split, double on first 2 cards only, 3:2, dealer checks for BJ first), what are the chances I would make it to $200 before going broke?


"Perfect strategy" refers to perfect count. Since there isn't any, it's usually used to refer to HO2, Zen and FELT, but these days counts tend to be toned down and compromised by camo. Are you referring to a specific count, or just perfectly played BS+CDE?

These problems aren't easily addressed analytically, but overall it should be somewhere around 50%.
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HKrandom
HKrandom
Joined: Oct 1, 2010
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January 15th, 2011 at 3:26:49 PM permalink
It would be close to 50% - HE. It would be slightly less than this since you would bet a total of more than $100 on average.
Instanto18
Instanto18
Joined: Oct 5, 2010
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January 26th, 2011 at 5:22:11 PM permalink
8 deck shoe, perfect strategy according to wizardofodds best strategy, ie. not counting cards. I feel like the chances of doubling your bankroll before going broke are less than 5%.
teddys
teddys
Joined: Nov 14, 2009
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January 26th, 2011 at 6:15:26 PM permalink
Quote: Instanto18

8 deck shoe, perfect strategy according to wizardofodds best strategy, ie. not counting cards. I feel like the chances of doubling your bankroll before going broke are less than 5%.

Sometimes it feels like that ... :(
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
HKrandom
HKrandom
Joined: Oct 1, 2010
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January 26th, 2011 at 10:13:53 PM permalink
Quote: Instanto18

8 deck shoe, perfect strategy according to wizardofodds best strategy, ie. not counting cards. I feel like the chances of doubling your bankroll before going broke are less than 5%.


Why would it be so?
Instanto18
Instanto18
Joined: Oct 5, 2010
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February 1st, 2011 at 4:38:16 PM permalink
For instance. If I had a 45% chance of winning even money, a 55% chance of losing, a 9% chance of pushing, and a 1% chance of winning 2 to 1, on any given hand I would have a 46% chance of winning something. If I were to play this game over time, every dollar I bet I would be closer to going broke. If I were to simply bet one hand, all of my money, I would have a 46% chance of at least doubling my money. But if I were to bet 1/20 of my money, and see if I could play conservatively to get to doubling my money, because the house advantage will take a toll on my bankroll, I will have a much less chance of ever making it there. This is the proof that volatility is bad for the casino, and good for the player, but I can not figure out how to do it on my own.
dwheatley
dwheatley
Joined: Nov 16, 2009
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February 1st, 2011 at 5:56:44 PM permalink
Your forgot the # of decks and S17 or H17. With 8 decks and S17, edge is ~0.38%, H17 edge is around ~0.59%.

Using the calculator at this ugly site, I get a probability of success of 49.51% with S17 or 49.24% with H17
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it

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