UTH Strategy Question
Holding 4Qh
Board 7h 5s 256c
Strictly off of the 21 out rule, I'm seeing:
4xA,K
3x2,7,6
2x5
Total of 19 single card outs. Under the 21 should be a play. Is there a high level way for me to see this properly as a fold? Additional EV loss is marginal at -0.09, but I want to make sure I'm not missing something simple that's impacting a significant number of my low board hands.
Light bulb moment, because my queen is out kicked significantly over 66% of the time, do I add in some number of queens to the dealer outs?
Basic strategy is never going to be perfect, i was just wondering if there was a simple add on to the 21 out rule to accommodate. Ex. On 19 or 20 dealer outs, play if kicker is greater then 6, similar to Crazy 4 hand strength.
Quote: EBGryphI agree, but that doesn't give a way to apply an applicable rule. For example, K3o on the same board also plays check check, but is then a play, and you can apply similar outkick logic, arbitrarily.
Basic strategy is never going to be perfect, i was just wondering if there was a simple add on to the 21 out rule to accommodate. Ex. On 19 or 20 dealer outs, play if kicker is greater then 6, similar to Crazy 4 hand strength.
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I tend to think of a possible flush as an additional out and a possible straight as a possible out also.
So the cards your Q can beat = 3, 4, 8, 9, 10, J... but not specifically "3-4" of course (but for this I don't think you need to worry about that 1 combination).
Assuming no other cards known, 4 of each (except the one 4 you have), so 4x6 = 24-1 = 23. Personally, I'd adjust this for the 3-4 (and possible flush), but even if you took it at 22 or 21... still qualifies for "21 or more outs," no?
Am I misreading something? EDIT: FYI I count "win" outs... aka cards I can beat.
Quote: RomesIf I'm reading this correctly, board = 7h-5s-2c-5c-6c ...and you have Qh-4h. Also, your Q will always lose or tie as your 4 does not play in your best 5 card hand.
So the cards your Q can beat = 3, 4, 8, 9, 10, J... but not specifically "3-4" of course (but for this I don't think you need to worry about that 1 combination).
Assuming no other cards known, 4 of each (except the one 4 you have), so 4x6 = 24-1 = 23. Personally, I'd adjust this for the 3-4 (and possible flush), but even if you took it at 22 or 21... still qualifies for "21 or more outs," no?
Am I misreading something? EDIT: FYI I count "win" outs... aka cards I can beat.
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I think you counted the cards he beats. The 21 out rule is counting the cards that beat you. But maybe I’m not following what you are saying.
Holding 4hQh; Board 7h 5s 2c5c6; calculator says Check.
Holding 4hQh; Board 7h 5s 2c5c8; calculator says Check.
Holding 4hQh; Board 7h 5s 2c5c9; calculator says Raise.
Holding 3hKs; Board 7h 5s 2c5c6; calculator says Raise.
The first three decisions are all marginal, so the less-than-21-out rule is good enough. If you really want something more accurate, and you may add this, one board under card to guarantee a Raise on marginal hands.
Never would have thought q4 would be a fold on that board.
My general rule is if paired board and not 4 flush, I'm allowed 2 overcards.
I never take into account 3 to a flush or gutshot straight.
Should I??
So is q4 no good because I lose to most other Queens?
So for the Op's board, I should consider there are 3 overs? A,k and Q because of kicker problems?
Quote: acesideI just played this online calculator. These are the computer strategy:
Holding 4hQh; Board 7h 5s 2c5c6; calculator says Check.
Holding 4hQh; Board 7h 5s 2c5c8; calculator says Check.
Holding 4hQh; Board 7h 5s 2c5c9; calculator says Raise.
Holding 3hKs; Board 7h 5s 2c5c6; calculator says Raise.
The first three decisions are all marginal, so the less-than-21-out rule is good enough. If you really want something more accurate, and you may add this, one board under card to guarantee a Raise on marginal hands.
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Wait.. board 75256 is a fold but 75259 is bet?
Why??
How is a 9 weaker than a 6 if I have q4?
Quote: 100xOddsQuote: acesideI just played this online calculator. These are the computer strategy:
Holding 4hQh; Board 7h 5s 2c5c6; calculator says Check.
Holding 4hQh; Board 7h 5s 2c5c8; calculator says Check.
Holding 4hQh; Board 7h 5s 2c5c9; calculator says Raise.
Holding 3hKs; Board 7h 5s 2c5c6; calculator says Raise.
The first three decisions are all marginal, so the less-than-21-out rule is good enough. If you really want something more accurate, and you may add this, one board under card to guarantee a Raise on marginal hands.
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Wait.. board 75256 is a fold but 75259 is bet?
Why??
How is a 9 weaker than a 6 if I have q4?
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At a guess the 9 gives more dealer Qs that chop rather than beat you and removes a couple of dealer straights. It’s marginal enough already that little things tip balance.
Holding 4hQh; Board 7h 5s 2c5c6c; calculator says Fold.
Holding 4hQh; Board 7h 5s 2c5c8c; calculator says Fold.
Holding 4hQh; Board 7h 5s 2c5c9c; calculator says Bet.
Holding 4hQh; Board 7h 5s 2c5c6d calculator says Fold.
Holding 4hQh; Board 7h 5s 2c5c8d calculator says Bet.
So, both the rank and suit matter in this marginal situation.
Thanks for all the responses, definitely an interesting spot, for as close as it is.
The rule of 21 is not perfect. There are exceptions both ways.
If I find some time I’ll dig up the math I did at the time.
Against a 9, the only possible straight is 6,8.
Quote: unJonIt’s been a few years since I looked at this but my memory is that “21 Outs” is really something like “20 and a half outs” and things like three to a flush are worth somewhere close to half an out.
If I find some time I’ll dig up the math I did at the time.
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So a 3 flush with gutshot would be 1 out?
Now I need to start counting instead of how many overs I'm allowed.
I currently do 'Non-paired board is 1 over, paired is 2 overs, 2pair or trips is 3 overs' as an easy shortcut
Quote: NameBannedMore straight possibilities with the 6. 4,8 and 4,3.
Against a 9, the only possible straight is 6,8.
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When the Board 7h 5s 2c5c6c, there are three possible dealer hands to make a straight: 3,4; 4,8; and 8,9.
It looks like each of these straight possibility can be counted as one out to beat the player.
Four in 45, four in 44 for 34 = 0.8% Three of those combinations make 2.4%
Four in 45, three in 44 for 88 = 0.6% Five of those combinations (33, 88, 99, TT, JJ) make 3%
If my math isnt off, pocket pair odds swing EV more than the straight combinations, so you'd want to include both.
I thought about this again. For a 3-card-straight board, player needs to deduct 0.8 out from the original 21. For a 3-card-flush board, player needs to deduct 1.3 outs, additionally.
Quote: EBGryphPlaying Ultimate Hold 'em on Wizard of Odds, I came across a scenario where it told me to fold.
Holding 4Qh
Board 7h 5s 256c
Strictly off of the 21 out rule, I'm seeing:
4xA,K
3x2,7,6
2x5
Total of 19 single card outs. Under the 21 should be a play. Is there a high level way for me to see this properly as a fold? Additional EV loss is marginal at -0.09, but I want to make sure I'm not missing something simple that's impacting a significant number of my low board hands.
Light bulb moment, because my queen is out kicked significantly over 66% of the time, do I add in some number of queens to the dealer outs?
link to original post
The 21 outs rule has exceptions. This hand would be one of them. Besides the 19 outs, the dealer has ways to get a straight or a flush and if he gets a queen would outkick you if the other card were 8 or greater.
Quote: EBGryphI agree, but that doesn't give a way to apply an applicable rule. For example, K3o on the same board also plays check check, but is then a play, and you can apply similar outkick logic, arbitrarily.
Basic strategy is never going to be perfect, i was just wondering if there was a simple add on to the 21 out rule to accommodate. Ex. On 19 or 20 dealer outs, play if kicker is greater then 6, similar to Crazy 4 hand strength.
link to original post
Holding 4Qh
Board 7h 5s 256c
Outs are:
4 Aces
4 Kings
3 Queens*
3 Sevens
3 Sixes
2 Fives
3 Twos
22 outs total. Fold.
Holding K3o
Board 7h 5s 256c
Outs are
4 Aces
3 Kings*
3 Sevens
3 Sixes
2 Fives
3 Twos
18 outs total. Play.
* Only semi-outs because you can still push, but the best you can do is push.
Quote: 100xOddsQuote: unJonIt’s been a few years since I looked at this but my memory is that “21 Outs” is really something like “20 and a half outs” and things like three to a flush are worth somewhere close to half an out.
If I find some time I’ll dig up the math I did at the time.
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So a 3 flush with gutshot would be 1 out?
Now I need to start counting instead of how many overs I'm allowed.
I currently do 'Non-paired board is 1 over, paired is 2 overs, 2pair or trips is 3 overs' as an easy shortcut
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For a 2-pair board, the allowed overs also depend on the rank of these pairs.
Quote: acesideQuote: 100xOddsQuote: unJonIt’s been a few years since I looked at this but my memory is that “21 Outs” is really something like “20 and a half outs” and things like three to a flush are worth somewhere close to half an out.
If I find some time I’ll dig up the math I did at the time.
link to original post
So a 3 flush with gutshot would be 1 out?
Now I need to start counting instead of how many overs I'm allowed.
I currently do 'Non-paired board is 1 over, paired is 2 overs, 2pair or trips is 3 overs' as an easy shortcut
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For a 2-pair board, the allowed overs also depend on the rank of these pairs.
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How much of an ev hit if i allowed 3 overs for any 2 pair?
ie: Worth the spending the mental?
The reason is that:
- the river decision involves whether to wager only one additional unit versus folding
- many of these decisions are so close, with a ΔEV of a couple hundredths of a unit bet
- some of the situations that are "close calls" occur relatively infrequently
Again, I enjoy the academic discussion of strategy, and I do enjoy getting every 0.00001 of equity that I can get - because I'm an analysis nerd. Just saying . . . .
