1 unit on don't pass and 2 units hedge lay bet on 10.

Remove 10 lay bet once point is established.

Replenish DP bet if knocked off by 11

So, the 10 lay bet is a temporary hedge bet against the 7 during come-out roll.

I hope I explained it clearly.

If the comeout is:

...a 2 or 3 (probability 3/36), you win 1 on the DP; total EV = 3/36

...a 4 (probability 3/36), there is a 2/3 chance of rolling a 7 before a 4 (win 1 on the DP) and 1/3 of rolling a 4 first (lose 1), so that's 3/36 x (2/3 - 1/3) = 1/36

...a 5 (probability 4/36), there is a 3/5 chance of rolling a 7 before a 5 and 2/3 of rolling a 5 first, so that's 4/36 x (3/5 - 2/5) = (4/5) / 36

...a 6 (probability 5/36), there is a 6/11 chance of rolling a 7 before a 6 and 5/11 of rolling a 6 first, so that's 5/36 x (6/11 - 5/11) = (5/11) / 36

...a 7 (probability 6/36), you lose 1 on the DP but gain 19/20 on the lay bet; EV = -1/6 x -1/20 = -(3/10) / 36

...an 8 is the same as a 6; that's another (5/11) / 36

...a 9 is the same as a 5; that's another (4/5) / 36

...a 10, you lose the 2 you laid on the 10, and then it is the same as a 4, so that's -2 x 3/36 + 1/36 = -5/36

...an 11 (probability 2/36), you lose 1 on the DP; total EV = -2/36

...a 12 (probability 1/36), that is a push

The sum of the EVs is -(87/110) / 36, or about -0.02197

...a 10, you lose the 2 you laid on the 10, and then it is the same as a 4, so that's -2 x 3/36 + 1/36 = -5/36

There is no lay 4 bet, so why lose with a 4?

He probably should have done $2 lay & buy bets and $4 on the DP so the half cent breakage on the lay bet win wasn't affecting him.

If I wanted to try it out on a real table, I'd need $41 lay bets (vig upfront) on the 4 & 10 and $80 on the DP, and $42 buy bets (vig upfront) on the 4 & 10; and I'd be pressing the 4 & 10 on a win a bit and setting the dice for that. See if a $1,000 buy-in lasts me long for that. With the vig upfront, the HA gets rather high, so it's probably better to do it on the bubble craps machine, but I'd rather set the dice, so maybe I shouldn't bother with this at all unless I'm gonna win big at this early.

Quote:roumin...1/3 of rolling a 4 first (lose 1)

...a 10, you lose the 2 you laid on the 10, and then it is the same as a 4, so that's -2 x 3/36 + 1/36 = -5/36

There is no lay 4 bet, so why lose with a 4?

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The point is 4, so you lose the 1 you bet on DP

Quote:rouminThanks - That makes sense. so, the cost of the hedge is higher than the benefit, since EV for straight DP is -1.4%

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Yes and you can know that without having to calculate the EV simply by knowing that the hedge bet itself is a bet with a house edge. So it by definition has negative EV.

Quote:ThatDonGuyI understand it.

If the comeout is:

...a 2 or 3 (probability 3/36), you win 1 on the DP; total EV = 3/36

...a 4 (probability 3/36), there is a 2/3 chance of rolling a 7 before a 4 (win 1 on the DP) and 1/3 of rolling a 4 first (lose 1), so that's 3/36 x (2/3 - 1/3) = 1/36

...a 5 (probability 4/36), there is a 3/5 chance of rolling a 7 before a 5 and 2/3 of rolling a 5 first, so that's 4/36 x (3/5 - 2/5) = (4/5) / 36

...a 6 (probability 5/36), there is a 6/11 chance of rolling a 7 before a 6 and 5/11 of rolling a 6 first, so that's 5/36 x (6/11 - 5/11) = (5/11) / 36

...a 7 (probability 6/36), you lose 1 on the DP but gain 19/20 on the lay bet; EV = -1/6 x -1/20 = -(3/10) / 36

...an 8 is the same as a 6; that's another (5/11) / 36

...a 9 is the same as a 5; that's another (4/5) / 36

...a 10, you lose the 2 you laid on the 10, and then it is the same as a 4, so that's -2 x 3/36 + 1/36 = -5/36

...an 11 (probability 2/36), you lose 1 on the DP; total EV = -2/36

...a 12 (probability 1/36), that is a push

The sum of the EVs is -(87/110) / 36, or about -0.02197

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how would the EV change if I hedge with 1 unit on lay 5 or lay 6 instead of 2 units on 10?

LAY BETS HOUSE EDGE

The best deal on lay bets is on 4 or 10, where the commission represents the smallest proportion of your bet.

Let’s start with casinos where you must pay the commission on all lay bets, win or lose.

If you lay 4 or 10, the house edge is 2.44 percent. In the long run, per $100 wagered, you would average $2.44 in losses

If you lay 5 or 9, the house edge is 3.23 percent.

If you lay 6 or 8, the house edge is 4 percent.

What if the house charges the commission only on winning bets? Then the house edge is reduced on all numbers.

On 4 or 10, commission on winners only, the house edge is 1.67 percent.

On 5 or 9, commission on winners only, the house edge is 2 percent.

On 6 or 8, commission on winners only, the house edge is 2.27 percent.

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Where I'm from, all the tables are in the first part, and all the bubble craps are in the second part. I like laying the 5 or 9 with a 2% HA using a progression, but I do tend to get knocked off extraordinarily and early.

A better way to play is $10 DP or DC with $30 odds on any number and that only has 1.4% HA on the DP or DC bet. But for a come-out roll plus one I'd go with the Lay 5 or 9 at 2%. At a table, my minimum Lay 5 or 9's would probably start at $75 and go up by $15 increments.

Bets that hedge do not cancel each other in terms of EV