Xur
Xur
Joined: Oct 26, 2023
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Thanks for this post from:
Mission146
October 26th, 2023 at 11:14:25 AM permalink
Trying to determine the odds of making X number of box numbers before crapping out.
If you bet across each roll you'll have a 69.4% fo winning (4,5,6,8,9,10) . 13.9% chance of push (2,3,11,12). 16.7% chance of loss (7).

If I made my strategy to hit 5 box numbers, then take my bet down, what would the odds of that be?

I know its not .6944^5 as you do not need to hit it 5 times in a row. So there must be a more complicated equation
unJon
unJon
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
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Thanks for this post from:
Mission146
October 26th, 2023 at 11:36:14 AM permalink
Quote: Xur

Trying to determine the odds of making X number of box numbers before crapping out.
If you bet across each roll you'll have a 69.4% fo winning (4,5,6,8,9,10) . 13.9% chance of push (2,3,11,12). 16.7% chance of loss (7).

If I made my strategy to hit 5 box numbers, then take my bet down, what would the odds of that be?

I know its not .6944^5 as you do not need to hit it 5 times in a row. So there must be a more complicated equation
link to original post



Didnít check your probabilities but if they are right then itís:

(0.694/(1-0.139))^5

You just need to gross up the probability of hitting to ignore tie outcomes.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Xur
Xur
Joined: Oct 26, 2023
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Mission146
October 26th, 2023 at 11:54:49 AM permalink
Thanks! Prob of 34% or sounds much closer to what I've seen than the .6% or so ChatGPT gave me.
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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October 26th, 2023 at 12:05:23 PM permalink
Is trying to use ChatGPT to figure out gambling problems really becoming that widespread? I wonder how much the casinos paid for that. JK
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
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October 26th, 2023 at 12:08:28 PM permalink
10 shooters may roll 4 times or less and 10 shooters may roll 12 times or more and they average over 8 rolls per shooter. The best way to beat this game is to stick around for the longer rolls, or bet against the shorter rolls.
FatGeezus
FatGeezus
Joined: Jun 12, 2010
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Thanks for this post from:
odiousgambit
October 26th, 2023 at 12:26:12 PM permalink
Quote: Xur

Trying to determine the odds of making X number of box numbers before crapping out.
If you bet across each roll you'll have a 69.4% fo winning (4,5,6,8,9,10) . 13.9% chance of push (2,3,11,12). 16.7% chance of loss (7).

If I made my strategy to hit 5 box numbers, then take my bet down, what would the odds of that be?

I know its not .6944^5 as you do not need to hit it 5 times in a row. So there must be a more complicated equation
link to original post



No player has ever crapped out.

They 7 out!
Xur
Xur
Joined: Oct 26, 2023
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October 26th, 2023 at 12:35:11 PM permalink
Itís my go to when I hit a wall trying to figure something out myself + some googling.
Xur
Xur
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October 26th, 2023 at 12:36:51 PM permalink
I always thought it was called crapping outÖTIL itís just when you lose your pass line on a 2,3,12.
Dieter
Administrator
Dieter
Joined: Jul 23, 2014
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October 26th, 2023 at 1:18:26 PM permalink
Quote: Xur

I always thought it was called crapping outÖTIL itís just when you lose your pass line on a 2,3,12.
link to original post



Hopefully that tidbit alone was worth the price of admission!

May I ask... is your name a reference to the Kodan Armada?

(... and Welcome to the forum.)
May the cards fall in your favor.
Xur
Xur
Joined: Oct 26, 2023
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October 26th, 2023 at 1:36:54 PM permalink
It is not, first time I have been asked if itís from anything but Destiny. Been using it as a handle since like 2003, used to be an old channel name my Russian friend and I met in from Warcraft III.
Ace2
Ace2 
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
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October 26th, 2023 at 5:35:43 PM permalink
Quote: Xur

Trying to determine the odds of making X number of box numbers before crapping out.

Please define ďcrapping outĒ.

Politely
Itís all about making that GTA
Xur
Xur
Joined: Oct 26, 2023
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October 26th, 2023 at 8:47:30 PM permalink
Rolling a 2,3,12 on the come out roll, you lose your pass line bet. In my original post I incorrectly used it for meaning rolling a 7.

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