david1965
david1965
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July 18th, 2023 at 10:01:36 AM permalink
Hi, I've been playing early payout BJ at Mybookie recently and after over 1800 hands of only playing when the count is at 0 or above I've won 49.2% of the hands which is well above the 46.5% that I expect to win if I'm playing in all counts. I'm just wanting to know if anyone knows what the expected win pct would be in these playing conditions where you're just playing in positive counts. The rules are 6 decks, shuffle halfway, no hole card, dealer hits soft 17.

thanks,

dave
ChumpChange
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July 18th, 2023 at 10:43:20 AM permalink
I usually win more at negative and 0 counts than at positive counts. Maybe it's the software being mean. But I'm not betting like a counter.
david1965
david1965
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July 18th, 2023 at 10:48:36 AM permalink
thanks for the response. I'm hoping someone out there has some actual data.
Mental
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July 18th, 2023 at 11:30:06 AM permalink
Quote: david1965

Hi, I've been playing early payout BJ at Mybookie recently and after over 1800 hands of only playing when the count is at 0 or above I've won 49.2% of the hands which is well above the 46.5% that I expect to win if I'm playing in all counts. I'm just wanting to know if anyone knows what the expected win pct would be in these playing conditions where you're just playing in positive counts. The rules are 6 decks, shuffle halfway, no hole card, dealer hits soft 17.

thanks,

dave
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What do you mean by winning? Are you counting pushes or losses as wins because you got something back?

I know how to calculate the win/push/surrender percentages in ordinary BJ. I also did the calculations for Bingo BJ.
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david1965
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July 18th, 2023 at 11:36:30 AM permalink
Hi Thanks for the reply.

I'm counting winning by actually winning the hand. Pushes don't count. The hand actually beating the dealers hand. I dont count a loss as a win if I took the payout and won money but lost the hand. If I win money by taking the payout but the hand loses I count that as a loss. Just purely counting if the hand won or lost. If you know how to do the calculations that would be so interesting to know the results.
Mental
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July 18th, 2023 at 12:01:51 PM permalink
Quote: david1965

Hi Thanks for the reply.

I'm counting winning by actually winning the hand. Pushes don't count. The hand actually beating the dealers hand. I don't count a loss as a win if I took the payout and won money but lost the hand. If I win money by taking the payout but the hand loses I count that as a loss. Just purely counting if the hand won or lost. If you know how to do the calculations that would be so interesting to know the results.
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I am interested in learning about Early Payout Blackjack in case it comes to casinos I play at. I see that it has been around for at least four years, but I haven't seen it in a US regulated casino. Maybe I need to search again, or maybe it is not approved in the US for some reason.

Based on what I just read about the rules, I don't think the winning percentage is a fixed number to calculate. Your strategy decisions affect your total. As I understand it, the dealer follows fixed rules. However, if you decided to stand on a total of 11, your loss rate would increase. Are you playing according to the basic strategy suggestions provided by the site? Are you sure this is a good strategy? For Bingo Blackjack, the basic strategy provided by the site (DK) is riddled with errors.
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david1965
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July 18th, 2023 at 12:14:19 PM permalink
you are correct. The rules are basic strategy but you can stand against basic strategy and you can double down if basic strategy says to hit. I use the Zen count and with that there are a few playing variations but when playing in positive counts it's mostly just standing instead of hitting something or it might have you double down when basic strategy just says to hit which is fine in this game. I would think, someone with some software somewhere could plug in some basic numbers just like they do to find out the overall win percentage in all counts which is 46.46% if you exclude pushes. I'm just kind of interested in knowing how far above normal I am right now if I've won over 49% of the hands. If you were to exclude all hands in a negative count how does that affect the 46.46% win rate? That's my question basically.

And youre also correct that it isn't in the US regulated casinos. Its only in these offshore casinos for now but these guys do accept US players.
ChumpChange
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July 18th, 2023 at 12:18:27 PM permalink
I've never heard of this game. With online digital they can make early payouts to the penny. Watch enough to get a gist of what kind of payouts to expect. I'm noticing the table cards appear long before the dealer deals them on her table.
If a player has 11 against a dealer 3, the player can cashout their $10 bet for a $15 return before doubling down. They can add their $10 double down bet, and if they draw a 10 for 21, then they can cashout early for $37.30 instead of $40. If another player had an 11 and doubled but drew a 5, they can cashout for $14.55 on their $20 bet or a $5.45 loss.
blackjack early payout
1,996 views Mar 26, 2013
Last edited by: ChumpChange on Jul 18, 2023
david1965
david1965
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July 18th, 2023 at 12:31:37 PM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

I've never heard of this game. With online digital they can make early payouts to the penny. Watch enough to get a gist of what kind of payouts to expect. I'm noticing the table cards appear long before the dealer deals them on her table.
blackjack early payout
1,996 views Mar 26, 2013


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yup thats the game I play mostly right now. I rarely take the payout but sometimes it makes sense
ChumpChange
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July 18th, 2023 at 12:50:23 PM permalink
Since there's no surrender, the cashout early option can help with 16's against 9,10,A and 15's against 10's. There's an HA built into the early payouts which we don't have information for.
david1965
david1965
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July 18th, 2023 at 1:12:48 PM permalink
right but the only two that give you close to a 50% option are 14 vs. 10 or 16 vs. 9 so I dont take the other surrenders that i would normally take if i was playing at a regular table.
Mental
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July 18th, 2023 at 1:17:29 PM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

Since there's no surrender, the cashout early option can help with 16's against 9,10,A and 15's against 10's. There's an HA built into the early payouts which we don't have information for.
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If every early payout is calculated on the spot to have a house edge, then it would always be right to reject the early payout. Then, wouldn't this game have the same statistics as normal BJ with the same rules.

https://www.blackjackinfo.com/software/visionary-gaming/#early-payout
Quote:

The house edge of this blackjack variation comes to about 0.69%


So this is actually a very poor BJ game versus what is available to me online. There are several slot games that allow buying bonus rounds or additional spins. Some of these house edges are better than the base game and some are worse. In some cases, I am able to confirm that these buy prices are calculated correctly to the penny.

The interesting question to me is whether the early payout is calculated using the deck composition after known card are removed. If the payout differs slightly in what looks to be identical situations, then the house is using their computers to count cards and adjust the payout. My understanding is that this is not allowed by US regulators.
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Mental
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July 18th, 2023 at 1:43:42 PM permalink
In this video, I see many instances where the payout is the same (to the penny) for the same player total and dealer up card. This suggests that they do not adjust the buyout for the cards already played.

What is odd is the situation where the 20-total hands A9 and TT have different payouts vs a dealer 7 ($17.36 vs $17.38). This happens at the 1:15 mark.
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ChumpChange
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July 18th, 2023 at 2:05:22 PM permalink
Did you win big with your 49% win rate? I'm usually breaking even with win rates around 42%, but it's not for sure how it goes if I win or lose a lot or a little. But a 49% win rate for several hundred hands would be grounds for a huge win streak for me.
david1965
david1965
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July 18th, 2023 at 2:50:05 PM permalink
I'm up almost $1000 betting between 5 and 20 bucks a hand. And to answer your previous question, the payout is the same no matter what the count is. and it is always slightly below the expected win rate of that particular hand. So if you're not counting it isn't worth ever taking. I like taking it when the TC has hit a +1 or higher if the dealer is showing a higher card than what I end up with. Or I will also take it if the count goes negative mid hand and the dealer is showing a 2,3,4,5, or 6. There is one fun scenario that's happened to me twice and that is when you get a blackjack vs. a dealer ace. They offer the insurance first and then if the count is above a +1 true count you're supposed to take the insurance and then after that you get the option of taking even money as well for the early payout so if the dealer has blackjack and you push you actually end up getting double for your BJ.
david1965
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July 18th, 2023 at 2:56:32 PM permalink
I agree, It is a pretty poor game. I especially don't like the no hole card thing. Along with that they have it programmed that an 11 vs. an ace or 10 is a double down and in fact basic strategy says not to double down against those cards when the dealer is not checking for BJ so what I do is go along with the double down and then take the early payout immediately afterwards. I would much rather be playing regular BJ and making my own decisions but I do like that you can bet less and I do like the occasional early payout option and the fact that there are only 3 hands being dealt so if the count is high you get to play more hands than on a 7 seat table.
ChumpChange
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July 18th, 2023 at 3:01:43 PM permalink
Blackjacks are where I win the most money. I'd be taking insurance every time the dealer has an Ace on my blackjack.
Mental
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July 18th, 2023 at 3:08:33 PM permalink
Quote: david1965

I agree, It is a pretty poor game. I especially don't like the no hole card thing. Along with that they have it programmed that an 11 vs. an ace or 10 is a double down and in fact basic strategy says not to double down against those cards when the dealer is not checking for BJ so what I do is go along with the double down and then take the early payout immediately afterwards. I would much rather be playing regular BJ and making my own decisions but I do like that you can bet less and I do like the occasional early payout option and the fact that there are only 3 hands being dealt so if the count is high you get to play more hands than on a 7 seat table.
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Good point about the three hands as far as being able to capitalize on good counts. What is the penetration like? Do they have a 'No Bots' clause in their terms of service?
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david1965
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July 18th, 2023 at 3:09:46 PM permalink
I'm not sure about the no bots rule but the penetration is only 50%
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