claystacks
claystacks
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September 30th, 2022 at 7:34:31 AM permalink
I assume the change is a massive benefit but would like to quantify. Eight decks, BJ pays 3:2, dealer peeks for BJ, dealer Hits soft 17, double down any two cards, split up to 4 hands (except aces), double after split allowed (except aces), no surrender. Wizards of Odds house edge calculator comes to .66083. This doesn’t state cut card position. Let’s assume this is 2 deck cut-off or 75% PEN. My local casino recently moved the cut card from 2 decks all the way to half deck. It’s all about the profit right? Their change is justifiable based on my table mates play. Using the Hi-Lo counting method and basic strategy without deviations. I’d like to know hourly expectation with both cut card positions. $25 table minimum and 1-12 spread. I know there are tons of variables but trying to keep it somewhat simple.
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
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September 30th, 2022 at 8:48:12 AM permalink
Quote: claystacks

… Wizards of Odds house edge calculator comes to .66083. This doesn’t state cut card position. …
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Cut card position is irreverent unless you’re counting cards.

The edge he calculated is based on a full shoe. Or a count of zero.

Really doesn’t matter.
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unJon
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gordonm888
September 30th, 2022 at 8:48:59 AM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

Quote: claystacks

… Wizards of Odds house edge calculator comes to .66083. This doesn’t state cut card position. …
link to original post

Cut card position is irreverent unless you’re counting cards.

The edge he calculated is based on a full shoe. Or a count of zero.

Really doesn’t matter.
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Not quite true given the cut card effect.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
claystacks
claystacks
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September 30th, 2022 at 9:01:28 AM permalink
I am counting cards. That’s the point of the question.
AlanMendelson
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September 30th, 2022 at 9:10:40 AM permalink
Quote: claystacks

I am counting cards. That’s the point of the question.
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Wouldn't your count be different after every shuffle? So why would the position of the cut card make a difference?
gordonm888
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gordonm888
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Mukke
September 30th, 2022 at 9:23:28 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: claystacks

I am counting cards. That’s the point of the question.
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Wouldn't your count be different after every shuffle? So why would the position of the cut card make a difference?
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The cut card position is also referred to as the penetration into a shoe. The plot below, from the blackjackincolor website, shows the average player advantage for the entire shoe versus the shuffle point (i.e., penetration) if the player is counting and is perfectly varying his bet size in the range 1 - 12.



From the above chart (and given the bet size range of 1-12 (which is unrealistic)) the players average advantage for the shoe is 0.8% at a shuffle point of 1-4 cards and about 1.6% at a shuffle point of 26 cards. So, the cut card position makes a difference.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
claystacks
claystacks
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September 30th, 2022 at 9:24:16 AM permalink
Really? We’re talking about one shoe. No need to respond if you don’t know the answer. Thanks
claystacks
claystacks
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September 30th, 2022 at 9:27:15 AM permalink
Gordon, the more cards you can realize in a shoe must have a significant impact on Your bottom line.
Dieter
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Dieter
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September 30th, 2022 at 9:40:06 AM permalink
Quote: claystacks

I’d like to know hourly expectation with both cut card positions. $25 table minimum and 1-12 spread. I know there are tons of variables but trying to keep it somewhat simple.
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I think you're looking for a SCORE calculator.
I don't think I have one handy.
May the cards fall in your favor.
claystacks
claystacks
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September 30th, 2022 at 9:53:16 AM permalink
How much does your EV gain when going from 75% PEN to 93%
21forme
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claystacks
September 30th, 2022 at 10:19:04 AM permalink
Yes, the cut card position makes a big difference.

If you're a card counter, you should have software to answer this question and many others about game condtions. See https://qfit.com/

Also, you'd be better off discussing a question about card counting at an AP-oriented forum, rather than a forum whose membership is mostly recreational gamblers (non-APs).
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