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MDawg
MDawg
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gordonm888
September 5th, 2021 at 10:18:37 AM permalink
The Wizard described the game here.

It is played with six decks through a continuous shuffle machine. I understand that the way this shuffle machine works, which is probably like all shuffle machines, is that up to about three hands might be played with a short sequence of un-shuffled cards before those cards too are mixed into the deck and shuffled.

The dealer I spoke to about this version seemed to think that it was a game best played for all the side bets, versus for a straight Bank or Player wager, although the house edge as far as I know is the same at this game as at any other commissionless half pay for Banker 6 Baccarat for the straight bets.

The pit boss pointed out to me that placing, say, $50. to cover every one of the ten possible tie bets ($5. on each) would pay more for tie than normally (normally being 8X) except on 6 and 7, which would pay you only $5 x 40 or $200., and only $5. x 70 or $350. on 8 or 9, versus $50. on a straight tie where a 6, 7, 8 or 9 tie hit, which would pay $50 x 8 or $400.

I thought it was interesting though to consider how they have analyzed the game and obviously determined that certain tie hands (6 and 7) are far more probable than others (a tie with 1 or 2, pays 200X). I assume this has to do with that ties other than 6,7,8,9 must involve draws, and that ties involving some of the hands require 6 card draws, others might happen with 5 card draws.

I don't do exotic side bets at Baccarat other than, rarely, the tie, so this is not a game for me, but it is an interesting, colorful setup.

Mostly I don't like it because it has lower limits, and also, the subtle difference between a fixed deck and a continuous shuffle machine. At least with a fixed deck if there are going to be 30 Banks coming out of it, once the deck is cut, no one may take those away, but with a continuous shuffle the game becomes more like a craps game or roulette with each roll or spin a truly independent random event.

Last edited by: MDawg on Sep 5, 2021
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gordonm888
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MDawg
September 5th, 2021 at 3:06:51 PM permalink
Quote: MDawg



I thought it was interesting though to consider how they have analyzed the game and obviously determined that certain tie hands (6 and 7) are far more probable than others (a tie with 1 or 2, pays 200X). I assume this has to do with that ties other than 6,7,8,9 must involve draws, and that ties involving some of the hands require 6 card draws, others might happen with 5 card draws.
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Yes. If those tie frequency numbers are not on WOO, I can dig them up for you. But you are essentially correct, a tie on 6-9 can involve scenarios in which only 4 cards are played (as well as scenarios involving 5or 6 cards), so the 6-9 ties are more probable than ties of 0 to 5 which require 5 or 6 cards.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
MDawg
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September 5th, 2021 at 3:20:47 PM permalink
Yes, so when I have some huge tie bet out there and dealer opens a 6 or 7, I can see now why the dealer gets so excited (especially if there is a side bet riding for the dealer). It's based on math.

And also why we get bat &^%$ crazy when a six card draw results in a 0 - 0 or 1 - 1 tie - it really is rare.
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gordonm888
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miplet
September 6th, 2021 at 11:28:30 AM permalink
Quote: MDawg

Yes, so when I have some huge tie bet out there and dealer opens a 6 or 7, I can see now why the dealer gets so excited (especially if there is a side bet riding for the dealer). It's based on math.

And also why we get bat &^%$ crazy when a six card draw results in a 0 - 0 or 1 - 1 tie - it really is rare.

  • link to original post



    Using some baccarat files that Miplet created (thanks Miplet!) this is what I calculate:
    Play,Bank Total
    Combinations
    Prob.
    0,0
    28,979,901,420,544
    0.005797838
    1,1
    20,499,217,668,352
    0.004101157
    2,2
    20,006,606,104,576
    0.004002603
    3,3
    22,250,510,129,408
    0.004451528
    4,4
    36,294,133,463,040
    0.007261153
    5,5
    39,684,046,743,808
    0.007939353
    6,6
    96,170,001,308,416
    0.019240164
    7,7
    101,051,004,798,976
    0.020216677
    8,8
    52,158,519,656,960
    0.010435047
    9,9
    55,146,054,060,032
    0.011032745


    Note: total combinations = 4,998,398,275,503,360

    So, a 7,7 tie is about 5.05 times more frequent than a 2,2 tie.
    So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
    miplet
    miplet
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    September 6th, 2021 at 11:44:57 AM permalink
    Quote: gordonm888

    Quote: MDawg

    Yes, so when I have some huge tie bet out there and dealer opens a 6 or 7, I can see now why the dealer gets so excited (especially if there is a side bet riding for the dealer). It's based on math.

    And also why we get bat &^%$ crazy when a six card draw results in a 0 - 0 or 1 - 1 tie - it really is rare.

  • link to original post



    Using some baccarat files that Miplet created (thanks Miplet!) this is what I calculate:
    Play,Bank Total
    Combinations
    Prob.
    0,0
    28,979,901,420,544
    0.005797838
    1,1
    20,499,217,668,352
    0.004101157
    2,2
    20,006,606,104,576
    0.004002603
    3,3
    22,250,510,129,408
    0.004451528
    4,4
    36,294,133,463,040
    0.007261153
    5,5
    39,684,046,743,808
    0.007939353
    6,6
    96,170,001,308,416
    0.019240164
    7,7
    101,051,004,798,976
    0.020216677
    8,8
    52,158,519,656,960
    0.010435047
    9,9
    55,146,054,060,032
    0.011032745


    Note: total combinations = 4,998,398,275,503,360

    So, a 7,7 tie is about 5.05 times more frequent than a 2,2 tie.
  • link to original post



    Link to WoO is in the OP. Some of your numbers are different. I'm on my phone so I can't check to see where the errors are.
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    ThatDonGuy
    ThatDonGuy
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    September 6th, 2021 at 11:55:44 AM permalink
    Quote: miplet

    Link to WoO is in the OP. Some of your numbers are different. I'm on my phone so I can't check to see where the errors are.


    miplet's numbers appear to be based on an 8-deck shoe, but the OP says this game uses a 6-deck shoe (well, CSM).

    Here's what I get, for both 6 and 8 decks:

    6 decks have 878,869,206,895,680 total combinations
    8 decks have 4,998,398,275,503,360 total combinations
    Result6 deck combosFraction8 deck combosFraction
    0-05,068,928,240,6400.00576755728,979,901,420,5440.005797838
    1-13,604,674,288,9600.00410149120,499,217,668,3520.004101157
    2-23,511,429,301,3760.00399539520,006,606,104,5760.004002603
    3-33,913,285,080,3840.00445263622,250,510,129,4080.004451528
    4-46,373,370,044,8000.00725178436,294,133,463,0400.007261153
    5-56,981,859,713,6000.00794414039,684,046,743,8080.007939353
    6-616,880,962,938,0480.01920759496,170,001,308,4160.019240164
    7-717,892,276,227,7120.020358292101,717,538,899,9680.020350027
    8-89,628,376,803,7760.01095541554,879,416,675,0720.010979401
    9-99,697,800,292,9920.01103440755,146,054,060,0320.011032745
    Last edited by: ThatDonGuy on Sep 6, 2021
    gordonm888
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    September 6th, 2021 at 12:30:49 PM permalink
    Quote: ThatDonGuy

    miplet's numbers appear to be based on an 8-deck shoe, but the OP says this game uses a 6-deck shoe (well, CSM).

    Here's what I get, for both 6 and 8 decks:

    6 decks have 878,869,206,895,680 total combinations
    8 decks have 4,998,398,275,503,360 total combinations

    Result6 deck combosFraction8 deck combosFraction
    0-05,068,928,240,6400.00576755728,979,901,420,5440.005797838
    1-13,604,674,288,9600.00410149120,499,217,668,3520.004101157
    2-23,511,429,301,3760.00399539520,006,606,104,5760.004002603
    3-33,913,285,080,3840.00445263622,250,510,129,4080.004451528
    4-46,373,370,044,8000.00725178436,294,133,463,0400.007261153
    5-56,981,859,713,6000.00794414039,684,046,743,8080.007939353
    6-616,880,962,938,0480.01920759496,170,001,308,4160.019240164
    7-717,892,276,227,7120.020358292101,717,538,899,9680.020350027
    8-89,628,376,803,7760.01095541554,879,416,675,0720.010979401
    9-99,697,800,292,9920.01103440755,146,054,060,0320.011032745
  • link to original post



    I had not noticed that OP's post specified a 6 deck game, thanks for catching that and for adding the additional numbers on the 6 deck game. We both have identical results for 8 decks, except for 7,7 and 8,8 ties. I am still checking.
    So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
    gordonm888
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    September 6th, 2021 at 12:42:14 PM permalink
    I found my error, I had omitted checking the last 100 rows on Miplets spreadsheet which has over 103,000 rows. I now get


    Play,Bank Total
    8 Deck Combinations
    Prob.
    0,0
    28,979,901,420,544
    0.005797838
    1,1
    20,499,217,668,352
    0.004101157
    2,2
    20,006,606,104,576
    0.004002603
    3,3
    22,250,510,129,408
    0.004451528
    4,4
    36,294,133,463,040
    0.007261153
    5,5
    39,684,046,743,808
    0.007939353
    6,6
    96,170,001,308,416
    0.019240164
    7,7
    101,717,538,899,968
    0.020350027
    8,8
    54,879,416,675,072
    0.010979401
    9,9
    55,146,054,060,032
    0.011032745


    Note: total combinations = 4,998,398,275,503,360

    I think this correction brings me into agreement with ThatDonGuy.
    Last edited by: gordonm888 on Sep 6, 2021
    So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
    MDawg
    MDawg
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    September 6th, 2021 at 12:43:43 PM permalink
    The pit boss who explained the game to me told me it is a six deck game.

    Check out the rules for the game as on file with the Casino Regulatory Authority in Singapore:
    https://www.cra.gov.sg/docs/default-source/default-document-library/9-mbs-0691001-sands-super-baccarat-game-rules---cra-ver-2-(no-logo).pdf

    The ties are proposed to be paid out as follows:


    with as much as a 28% lower payout as at the game in Vegas, which means that either the game pays out much better in Vegas, or Sands decided to up the payouts after initially filing the game description.
    I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
    gordonm888
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    gordonm888
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    September 6th, 2021 at 1:12:24 PM permalink
    Quote: MDawg

    The pit boss who explained the game to me told me it is a six deck game.

    Check out the rules for the game as on file with the Casino Regulatory Authority in Singapore:
    https://www.cra.gov.sg/docs/default-source/default-document-library/9-mbs-0691001-sands-super-baccarat-game-rules---cra-ver-2-(no-logo).pdf

    The ties are proposed to be paid out as follows:


    with as much as a 28% lower payout as at the game in Vegas, which means that either the game pays out much better in Vegas, or Sands decided to up the payouts after initially filing the game description.

  • link to original post



    My quick scan of these Singapore payout numbers are that the House Edges are in the range (approx) of 27 to 42% for most or all of these wagers. I imagine that either the Vegas casinos had some sense of shame or the Nevada Gaming Board suggested or mandated higher returns.
    So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.

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