BAOVN1987
BAOVN1987
Joined: Sep 5, 2020
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September 6th, 2020 at 12:46:00 AM permalink
double
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
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September 6th, 2020 at 1:28:13 AM permalink
That 6 deck infinite shuffle is bringing you down. There's no room for a positive count.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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BAOVN1987
September 6th, 2020 at 4:28:37 AM permalink
Quote: BAOVN1987

(snip)
After wagering $12,500 (which completed the playthrough requirement) at the aforementioned average bet, my final account balance stands at $110. Effect loss of $1390.

Should I be suspicous?


It is always good to be cautious and ask questions, but from the info provided it looks like you just had a very "bad run" (- variance session).

Edit/Update (about 450 am): If you decide to continue playing at that casino then you should keep a log / diary of each session. Personally, I would go from "cautious" to "very suspicious" if the same results (or worse) happened 3-4 deposits in a row.

Quote: BAOVN1987

(snip)
My total action was $12,745 over 983 hands. So ~$13 dollar average bet.

It was actually their "premium" version which has the same rules I originally listed, but uses 4 decks shuffled after each round.

I don't make basic strategy mistakes -ever- and there was no tilt/martingaling whatsoever.


If you were betting $13 as your initial bet every hand, then I get 1/500 chance*** of losing $1,390^^^.

***: It is probably a bit less than 1/500, because I was using 1.08 as the standard deviation (SD) per wager, and I think the SD may be closer to 1.06 per wager for the game you described.

^^^: The chance of losing $1500 would have been around 1/1400. FYI
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Sep 6, 2020
heatmap
heatmap
Joined: Feb 12, 2018
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ksdjdj
September 6th, 2020 at 1:37:34 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

It is always good to be cautious and ask questions, but from the info provided it looks like you just had a very "bad run" (- variance session).

Edit/Update (about 450 am): If you decide to continue playing at that casino then you should keep a log / diary of each session. Personally, I would go from "cautious" to "very suspicious" if the same results (or worse) happened 3-4 deposits in a row.


If you were betting $13 as your initial bet every hand, then I get 1/500 chance*** of losing $1,390^^^.

***: It is probably a bit less than 1/500, because I was using 1.08 as the standard deviation (SD) per wager, and I think the SD may be closer to 1.06 per wager for the game you described.

^^^: The chance of losing $1500 would have been around 1/1400. FYI



i have a video of a very bad session from PS BJ hes speaking about trying to find it now
BAOVN1987
BAOVN1987
Joined: Sep 5, 2020
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September 7th, 2020 at 2:10:45 AM permalink
double... again.
BAOVN1987
BAOVN1987
Joined: Sep 5, 2020
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ksdjdj
September 7th, 2020 at 2:23:22 AM permalink
The only way I would continue playing is if they offer me an additional deposit bonus of the some kind. The rational part of my brain which firmly believes that no state licensed casino would risk everything to cheat customers out of a 1-time-use deposit bonus would definitely win out.

Let me ask you though... Does the fact that the bonus was paid incrementally ($1 cash paid for every $25 wagered) change the picture significantly in regards to risk of a loss like this? I I usually see these bonuses paid in a lump sum after completing the wagering requirement.

After this post, this account will be disabled by request... thanks for everyones help. I'll view any replies, but won't be responding further.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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September 7th, 2020 at 5:10:20 AM permalink
Quote: BAOVN1987

(snip)
Let me ask you though... Does the fact that the bonus was paid incrementally ($1 cash paid for every $25 wagered) change the picture significantly in regards to risk of a loss like this? I I usually see these bonuses paid in a lump sum after completing the wagering requirement.


IMO, it is not significant at the $13 per round average you were betting (of course, getting the whole bonus up front is always preferable, if all the other t & c's are the same).
Sandybestdog
Sandybestdog
Joined: Feb 3, 2015
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September 8th, 2020 at 3:48:21 AM permalink
I have played at Fox a couple of times. I did the $500 bonus as well. It's a good promo. I ran so bad. I could not win a hand but I was betting larger and I'm sure it was within the parameters of variance. I lost not only the deposit but also subsequent deposits just to get the $500 credit. Another time I ran a $100 bonus up to about $1200 (big bets, maybe 3 x $25 or something) The playthrough was outrageous though. Something like 400x I think. Well about 90% through I leveled off. Maybe 5 x $6 or something. I dropped probably $600 in 40 rounds. I think then I just went to maybe one hand of $25. It was so bad. I ended up only about $100. There was a streak where I calculated I lost 25 out of 27 hands. Certainly possible but suspect. I requested the hand history. It was emailed to me and surprise surprise couldn't access it, just got error messages. A few months later I played again and lost as well. I haven't played since. Mostly cause there are no more bonuses. I don't know the software. I haven't seen it anywhere else.

I play a lot online. Shit will drive you crazy. Do I think it's rigged? Probably not. But there are definitely places where I always seem to have better success and places where I always seem to lose. There are also the particular games that have uncanny repeatable characteristics. I'm sure it's just selective memory. What I do know is for the amount of the bonuses that I receive, I certainly don't feel that I am at expectation. Again could be selective memory. No doubt I have had some big wins as well.

I will say this. Read the rules. They do not say it's random. They say every hand is independent. That I believe. But it doesn't say every card has an equal chance of coming out. Everyone knows when you get 4 to a royal, you have a fair 1/47 chance of getting it. I'm not sure about online. My personal theory - they say its not an RNG but a pseudo RNG. That doesn't answer how a card is chosen. So my theory is that the game is programmed with not random cards out of 6 decks but rather several hundred or thousand preprogrammed strings of randomly chosen cards out of 6 decks. When you press deal, it chooses one of them and depending if you hit or stand it chooses the next card in the string. So in theory a particular game could be accidentally preprogrammed disproportionately based on if the strings are more favorable to the house or player. I have no idea what I'm talking about here though. I don't even know if this is how it works.

I am still up significantly the past 2 years although this year has been more of a struggle. It's also hard to see where I'm winning and losing because the co-mingled sports betting screws up the wins and losses. I think I will start a different thread soon about a nearly 2 year blackjack story I have about one particular game to get peoples opinions.
Sandybestdog
Sandybestdog
Joined: Feb 3, 2015
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September 8th, 2020 at 3:59:41 AM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

IMO, it is not significant at the $13 per round average you were betting (of course, getting the whole bonus up front is always preferable, if all the other t & c's are the same).

I have seen one or two other places do it like this. $25 per $1 is a strong offer. Also it doesn't matter the bet size so you can bet the small $13 and usually not sweat the variance. Many places are at 300x rollover on blackjack now.
heatmap
heatmap
Joined: Feb 12, 2018
  • Threads: 181
  • Posts: 1492
September 8th, 2020 at 4:35:02 AM permalink
Quote: Sandybestdog

I have played at Fox a couple of times. I did the $500 bonus as well. It's a good promo. I ran so bad. I could not win a hand but I was betting larger and I'm sure it was within the parameters of variance. I lost not only the deposit but also subsequent deposits just to get the $500 credit. Another time I ran a $100 bonus up to about $1200 (big bets, maybe 3 x $25 or something) The playthrough was outrageous though. Something like 400x I think. Well about 90% through I leveled off. Maybe 5 x $6 or something. I dropped probably $600 in 40 rounds. I think then I just went to maybe one hand of $25. It was so bad. I ended up only about $100. There was a streak where I calculated I lost 25 out of 27 hands. Certainly possible but suspect. I requested the hand history. It was emailed to me and surprise surprise couldn't access it, just got error messages. A few months later I played again and lost as well. I haven't played since. Mostly cause there are no more bonuses. I don't know the software. I haven't seen it anywhere else.

I play a lot online. Shit will drive you crazy. Do I think it's rigged? Probably not. But there are definitely places where I always seem to have better success and places where I always seem to lose. There are also the particular games that have uncanny repeatable characteristics. I'm sure it's just selective memory. What I do know is for the amount of the bonuses that I receive, I certainly don't feel that I am at expectation. Again could be selective memory. No doubt I have had some big wins as well.

I will say this. Read the rules. They do not say it's random. They say every hand is independent. That I believe. But it doesn't say every card has an equal chance of coming out. Everyone knows when you get 4 to a royal, you have a fair 1/47 chance of getting it. I'm not sure about online. My personal theory - they say its not an RNG but a pseudo RNG. That doesn't answer how a card is chosen. So my theory is that the game is programmed with not random cards out of 6 decks but rather several hundred or thousand preprogrammed strings of randomly chosen cards out of 6 decks. When you press deal, it chooses one of them and depending if you hit or stand it chooses the next card in the string. So in theory a particular game could be accidentally preprogrammed disproportionately based on if the strings are more favorable to the house or player. I have no idea what I'm talking about here though. I don't even know if this is how it works.

I am still up significantly the past 2 years although this year has been more of a struggle. It's also hard to see where I'm winning and losing because the co-mingled sports betting screws up the wins and losses. I think I will start a different thread soon about a nearly 2 year blackjack story I have about one particular game to get peoples opinions.



From what I understand about casino grade rng is that - there can be patterns that are noticeable itís just something that happens, and it doesnít matter if you can see the pattern as long as the cards are unpredictable.

Iíll tell you that PA shuffles are only one of the two things that I mentioned

I donít know how many people need to come into here and complain about PA before you are all finally tipped off its true?

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