SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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April 2nd, 2020 at 3:59:27 PM permalink
Quote: charliepatrick

I can see the rules now say that, so I'm not sure what I was looking at a few days ago which suggested otherwise except I did see the same rule #8 (p26) so wasn't seeing things!

Using the rules that Gongs+ pay 25/1 the House Edge is about 0.65% less, about 2.70% if you just play the tie bet (but as I said you need to play differently - e.g. 6-6 6-5 4-4 4-4 you would not split the 8s).



I think if you were solely playing for ties you could turn the bet +EV. (Just a guess). There are a bunch of hands that overdoing the high at the expense of the low would markedly increase ties. Play wong/3 instead of 9/5 as an example. There are many other examples.
Gee Joon/1 instead of 9/8. Etc....
robert.loo
robert.loo
Joined: Apr 1, 2020
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April 2nd, 2020 at 5:21:58 PM permalink
Quote: charliepatrick

Assuming equal bets are allowed, that gives you roughly 4% back, thus the Tie Bet costs you about 10.24%. If you didn't have to make a base bet, then you can make plays purely for Tie purposes, the House Edge is about 3.35%. This assumes the 25/20/1 Bonus you mentioned.

In summary I get it that you can't overcome the House Edge with smart play and if the House only allows equal bets you need to learn a different "perfect" strategy to get to the figure above. It's not worth the bother.



3% ish sounds a lot better. I also came to the realization that both hands canít win so Iím not really sure what the best strategy is in regards to the bet. Perhaps just ignoring it altogether might be better but since pushes occur so often Itís hard to resist the temptation to just use that as a primary bet.
Aussie
Aussie
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April 2nd, 2020 at 6:16:12 PM permalink
This side bet isnít played a whole lot and combined with the fact you donít have to make the base bet to play it, that probably gives a good indication that it canít be beaten.

In my experience Mostly people play the base bet with maybe one third also playing the bonus bet. Sometimes they also play the tie. I mainly see people playing the tie when they have run out of/are low on money as the minimum bet is typically much lower. EG $100 minimum on the base bet but only $10 or $25 on the tie.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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April 2nd, 2020 at 6:34:34 PM permalink
Quote: Aussie

This side bet isnít played a whole lot and combined with the fact you donít have to make the base bet to play it, that probably gives a good indication that it canít be beaten.

In my experience Mostly people play the base bet with maybe one third also playing the bonus bet. Sometimes they also play the tie. I mainly see people playing the tie when they have run out of/are low on money as the minimum bet is typically much lower. EG $100 minimum on the base bet but only $10 or $25 on the tie.



I'm going to play 100 hands using my 'tie' strategy. I'll report results. To remind me, if I have a gong in low hand and tie I win 20-1. If its a wong I win 25-1. Both assuming it results in a tie. I'll be back.

Just played 30 hands. Tie only 11. I gave up.
Aussie
Aussie
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April 2nd, 2020 at 6:39:04 PM permalink
Itís 25-1 if a gong or higher on the low. Nothing extra if itís a wong.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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April 2nd, 2020 at 6:43:12 PM permalink
Quote: Aussie

Itís 25-1 if a gong or higher on the low. Nothing extra if itís a wong.



Wong is higher than gong. If it says 'gong or higher' I'm sure wong is included.
Aussie
Aussie
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April 2nd, 2020 at 6:46:26 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Wong is higher than gong. If it says 'gong or higher' I'm sure wong is included.




What I mean is that they will pay 25-1 if your low hand is a gong or higher. That covers times when your low hand is a Wong and also when the low hand may be a pair.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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April 2nd, 2020 at 11:57:57 PM permalink
Since there is not much to do at the moment, I decided to click the "random hand" button 300 times (see link below) just to see what it would show.

https://wizardofodds.com/games/pai-gow-tiles/calculator/
(I selected "Crown Casino" for the "dealer strategy")

Doing the above and using a "best chance to get a push" strategy, I got the following figures:

Push (average): 9895.7933

Total combos (according to the calculator): 20,475

Chance of a push: 48.33...%


Sorry, I don't understand pg tiles since I have never looked at it/played it before, so I don't know how many of those hands (if any) would have paid a bonus.
charliepatrick
charliepatrick
Joined: Jun 17, 2011
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Thanks for this post from:
ksdjdjMrCasinoGames
April 3rd, 2020 at 1:55:03 AM permalink
UPDATE
03Apr'20 19h42 BST: These figures are wrong as I had a bug in my code when splitting pairs: e.g. Hi8 Hi8 1-1 =9=. If you play there's 2200 chances of winning 25/1, if splitting there's 24208 chances of winning 1/1. However I was incorrectly using 24208 and giving the bonus.


Note I don't use Melbourne House Way but the one used in the UK so the figures might be slightly out. Here are the numbers just looking at maximizing the number of ties.

Note: I noticed I had to make a manual* adjustment as you occasionally need to split two pairs (e.g. with 6-6 6-6 4-4 4-4 you're better off splitting the pairs) as my original logic didn't look at alternatives for "TwoPairs", it did for other "OneWay" hands.

The chance of a tie this way is 46.85%.

Bonus Ties
1 216 624
25
30 415 600
Simple Ties
343 788 169
1
343 788 169
Not Tie
391 385 936
- 1
-391 385 936
736 390 729
0
-17 182 167
-2.333%

* - The above figures might be slightly out as I've just used the "Tie" figures for 6-6 1-1 {Hi8 Hi8, Lo8 Lo8, =9= =9=) instead of 6-6 6-6 ... ... or 1-1 1-1 ... ... rather than recoding the original program, so this is a very close estimate. However it still shows there's a House Edge.

Idea - PaiGow allow GeeJ to be 3 or 6, are you allowed to under-declare - for a hand like 4-1 2-1 could it be considered as a 1 rather than 8? I've assumed not!
Last edited by: charliepatrick on Apr 3, 2020
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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April 3rd, 2020 at 5:28:37 AM permalink
Quote: charliepatrick

Note I don't use Melbourne House Way but the one used in the UK so the figures might be slightly out. Here are the numbers just looking at maximizing the number of ties.

Note: I noticed I had to make a manual* adjustment as you occasionally need to split two pairs (e.g. with 6-6 6-6 4-4 4-4 you're better off splitting the pairs) as my original logic didn't look at alternatives for "TwoPairs", it did for other "OneWay" hands.

The chance of a tie this way is 46.85%.

Bonus Ties
1 216 624
25
30 415 600
Simple Ties
343 788 169
1
343 788 169
Not Tie
391 385 936
- 1
-391 385 936
736 390 729
0
-17 182 167
-2.333%

* - The above figures might be slightly out as I've just used the "Tie" figures for 6-6 1-1 {Hi8 Hi8, Lo8 Lo8, =9= =9=) instead of 6-6 6-6 ... ... or 1-1 1-1 ... ... rather than recoding the original program, so this is a very close estimate. However it still shows there's a House Edge.

Idea - PaiGow allow GeeJ to be 3 or 6, are you allowed to under-declare - for a hand like 4-1 2-1 could it be considered as a 1 rather than 8? I've assumed not!



Thanks for doing this. In my 30 Hand sample I did get one where I Ďwantedí to count the Gee Joon as 6 to make the low hand worse. My favorite hand was teen, teen, day, 7. Played teen/day. 7/teen. It worked.

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