21
Joined: Mar 11, 2020
• Posts: 1
March 11th, 2020 at 2:52:49 AM permalink
Hi,
If we playing basic strategy perfectly, ( but no card counting, etc.), on a long run how many hands we gonna win and lose from 100 hand average?
Don't count hands we push.

Thanks
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
• Posts: 909
Thanks for this post from:
March 11th, 2020 at 3:57:04 AM permalink

https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/variance/

The above link should answer your question more thoroughly. Scroll down to "Probability of Net Win" and you should find a table that says "Summarized Net Win in Blackjack" (it is about 1/4 to 1/3 of the way down the page).
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
• Posts: 7886
March 11th, 2020 at 1:22:28 PM permalink
Quote: 21

Hi,
If we playing basic strategy perfectly, ( but no card counting, etc.), on a long run how many hands we gonna win and lose from 100 hand average?
Don't count hands we push.

Thanks

You will have to tell us how to count BJ? Is that one win or 1.5 wins?
What about a double down? 2 wins or 2 losses or just one?
What about split hands? Do both count as a single hand? What if you win one and lose one? Double on one and lose, but plain win on second.... etc....
charliepatrick
Joined: Jun 17, 2011
• Posts: 2368
Thanks for this post from:
March 11th, 2020 at 3:20:41 PM permalink
Looking at a simulation I ran many years ago (CSM UK rules) it was Wins=45.182%, Losses=52.449%, Ties=8.809%. This adds up to 106.440% so counted splits as different hands. Factoring to 100% it's 42.45, 49.28 8.27 so roughly what was quoted above.
gordonm888
Joined: Feb 18, 2015
• Posts: 2888
Thanks for this post from:
March 11th, 2020 at 4:27:15 PM permalink
Quote: charliepatrick

Looking at a simulation I ran many years ago (CSM UK rules) it was Wins=45.182%, Losses=52.449%, Ties=8.809%. This adds up to 106.440% so counted splits as different hands. Factoring to 100% it's 42.45, 49.28 8.27 so roughly what was quoted above.

I agree that your numbers are roughly equivalent, especially considering that a split hand with both a win and a loss might count as a tie.

I am curious. 106.440% implies an increase of 6.44% dues to splits - but that seems a bit high to me, even with resplits. Your thoughts?
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
charliepatrick
Joined: Jun 17, 2011