darkoz
darkoz
Joined: Dec 22, 2009
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August 29th, 2019 at 2:08:40 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

At 15 I would be concerned.



I have seen 20+ consecutive reds and blacks at roulette many times.

Im not saying it is a daily occurrence but it happens more often than you think.

More than 30 consecutive I only experienced once (i was betting and winning with that streak but should have won more. I was playing scared when i should have been pressing)

Never seen more than 30+ so im gonna go with 40 or 50 as suspicious
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
michael99000
michael99000 
Joined: Jul 10, 2010
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August 29th, 2019 at 2:26:49 PM permalink
Quote: darkoz

I have seen 20+ consecutive reds and blacks at roulette many times.

Im not saying it is a daily occurrence but it happens more often than you think.

More than 30 consecutive I only experienced once (i was betting and winning with that streak but should have won more. I was playing scared when i should have been pressing)

Never seen more than 30+ so im gonna go with 40 or 50 as suspicious



I saw the #5 hit on five consecutive roullete spins , which is the equivalent of about 27 heads coin flips in a row.
OnceDear
Administrator
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
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August 29th, 2019 at 2:49:06 PM permalink
Quote: michael99000

I saw the #5 hit on five consecutive roullete spins , which is the equivalent of about 27 heads coin flips in a row.

I just saw 4,24,16,5,11,3,32 in that exact sequence!
Wow!
Probability of 1 in 37^7 or 1 in 94931877133. or roughly 1 in 100 billion. Almost unthinkably unlikely.
I was shocked. Sadly, the pattern broke just after I recognised it and 18 did not occur next.

:o)
Take care out there. Spare a thought for the newly poor who were happy in their world just a few days ago, but whose whole way of life just collapsed..
charliepatrick
charliepatrick
Joined: Jun 17, 2011
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August 29th, 2019 at 3:04:59 PM permalink
The problem also has to get over Bayes theorem. You have to show it is more likely that you have a ( biassed coin/wheel/etc. && result ) compared with ( unbiassed && outlandish results ). Thus if you were playing on the back streets then you'd be more suspicious than playing in a regulated casino.

One has seen many threads suggesting something is wrong, you need lots of evidence before you can say for sure something is wrong.

For instance suppose a casino fruit machine is expected to pay out 94% but you've played lots of times and only get 93%. You would have to play over 100 million times before you could seriously consider something was wrong.
IndyJeffrey
IndyJeffrey
Joined: Feb 10, 2013
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August 29th, 2019 at 6:24:31 PM permalink
Quote: reno

But at a certain point, the odds become ridiculous.



You answered your own question. What do you consider ridiculous odds? Work backwards from there.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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Thanks for this post from:
MaxPen
August 29th, 2019 at 8:18:28 PM permalink
Quote: darkoz

I have seen 20+ consecutive reds and blacks at roulette many times.

♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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August 30th, 2019 at 12:32:11 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: darkoz

I have seen 20+ consecutive reds and blacks at roulette many times.

Im not saying it is a daily occurrence but it happens more often than you think.

More than 30 consecutive I only experienced once (i was betting and winning with that streak but should have won more. I was playing scared when i should have been pressing)

Never seen more than 30+ so im gonna go with 40 or 50 as suspicious

I just wanted to make sure we got Alan Mendelson JR on record.

p.s. Where have you been for the last few days darkoz, it's not like you to skip a few days of posting? If I recall correctly, you even claimed to be posting while having a "hot" girl in your bed.
Last edited by: AxelWolf on Aug 30, 2019
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
MaxPen
MaxPen
Joined: Feb 4, 2015
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August 30th, 2019 at 12:39:54 AM permalink
Quote: darkoz


More than 30 consecutive I only experienced once (i was betting and winning with that streak but should have won more. I was playing scared when i should have been pressing)

Never seen more than 30+ so im gonna go with 40 or 50 as suspicious



Mehhh....the multiple 1 in 3 million aren't nothing.

I want to quote the 1 in 5.4 billion statement🙄😲🙄

And how he doesn't get suspicious until around 1 in 10 trillion or so......oof....trusting🤣🤣
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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August 30th, 2019 at 1:52:27 AM permalink
Quote: MaxPen

Mehhh....the multiple 1 in 3 million aren't nothing.

I want to quote the 1 in 5.4 billion statement🙄😲🙄

And how he doesn't get suspicious until around 1 in 10 trillion or so......oof....trusting🤣🤣

I just wonder what that chapter in his book is going to be called?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
kubikulann
kubikulann
Joined: Jun 28, 2011
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August 30th, 2019 at 5:58:05 AM permalink
Quote: reno

Sometimes when you flip a coin, things happen that might appear unusual, but are actually rather ordinary. For example, you might get 8 heads in a row on 8 consecutive flips.

But at a certain point, the odds become ridiculous. Here's my question: at what point would someone educated in math become suspicious about the integrity of the coin toss? 30 consecutive heads? 50 consecutive heads? 100 consecutive heads?

The question is more complex than simply ONE sequence.
One should be suspicious when recording several 10-runs in a short time, for example.
- -
I doubt anybody in the real world has recorded the outcomes of thousands of coin flips (with the same physical coin). Computer simulations are different: the matter is about the RNG.
No coin is physically exactly fair, of course.
So, for a practical purpose, the question of fairness is unimportant as such: it is the size of the bias that counts. And its importance relies on the number of value laden flips. With the same coin.

In a heads or tails situation, you implicitly admit that there is a probability distribution on the coin selected, before the probability distribution of that one coin sides. On the whole, even Bayesian admit the overall chances are 50/50.

Unless the RuritanIan Mint, e.g., should design one coin, intentionally or other, to fall more often on one side...

- -
There are millions of roulette tables in the world, each running hundreds of spins each day. 3652 days per decade.
The order is around a trillion spins in a decade.
An event that has a 1 in a trillion prob ON ONE SPIN has 36% chance of having happened in the last decade.

But here, we are looking at sequences. So the experiments must be sliced in sessions per individual roulette wheel (I guess having 5 reds just before closing time, then 5 at next mornings opening, donít count as a 10 run.)
Say what? Five billion sample sessions? A one-in-10-billion chance event happening once in the world during a pre-chosen decade should make eyebrows . Maybe.
(And then there are the other worlds to take into account, including their probability of existence.)
- -
Last edited by: kubikulann on Aug 30, 2019
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