galacticpierre
galacticpierre
Joined: May 8, 2019
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June 28th, 2019 at 5:09:46 PM permalink
Hi Everyone,

I was wondering if someone can help me calculate the odds and optimal strategy for a version of Ultimate Texas Hold'em that I saw in Europe.

Basically the rules are all the same except for one major difference. If the casino doesn't qualify, the casino pays you the "play" regardless of who would have won the hand. The ante is still a push. Traditionally if the dealer does not open and the dealer wins the hand then you would lose the "blind" and the "play" and push the "ante".

I'll give an example :

1.) Ante $1, Blind $1, Play $4. - Dealer does not quality and player wins hand, I collect $4 play, Push on Ante and Blind. Traditionally I would collect $4 play push on ante and blind (This is the same)

2.) Ante $1, Blind $1, Play $4. - Dealer does not quality and dealer wins hand, I collect $4 play, push on ante and blind. Traditionally I would lose $4 play, lose $1 blind, and push ante.
beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
Joined: May 21, 2013
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Thanks for this post from:
galacticpierre
June 28th, 2019 at 6:08:31 PM permalink
Quote: galacticpierre

Hi Everyone,

I was wondering if someone can help me calculate the odds and optimal strategy for a version of Ultimate Texas Hold'em that I saw in Europe.

Basically the rules are all the same except for one major difference. If the casino doesn't qualify, the casino pays you the "play" regardless of who would have won the hand. The ante is still a push. Traditionally if the dealer does not open and the dealer wins the hand then you would lose the "blind" and the "play" and push the "ante".

I'll give an example :

1.) Ante $1, Blind $1, Play $4. - Dealer does not quality and player wins hand, I collect $4 play, Push on Ante and Blind. Traditionally I would collect $4 play push on ante and blind (This is the same)

2.) Ante $1, Blind $1, Play $4. - Dealer does not quality and dealer wins hand, I collect $4 play, push on ante and blind. Traditionally I would lose $4 play, lose $1 blind, and push ante.



So.

I get, from WoO tables. Hands where dealer does not qualify, but wins the hand, with occurences of large, medium, and small Play bets.

So you not only don't lose, you are paid - a net gain in PA of both values, for that percentage of hands expected in each case to be dealer wins.

-5 becomes +4 on 0.003641 (*9) = 0.033219

-3 becomes +2 on 0.000287 (*5) = 0.001435

-2 becomes +1 on 0.001698 (*3) = 0.005094

Total change in +EV = 0.039748

Normal HE is 0.02185 . So the player has an advantage of 0.017898 (1.7898%) with these rules.

https://wizardofodds.com/games/ultimate-texas-hold-em/
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
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galacticpierre
June 28th, 2019 at 6:12:53 PM permalink
I guess I would say, if there is no pair, 4 to a flush, or 4 to an outside straight on the board, you might want to not fold at all. Not sure. I don't think I would change any other BS decisions.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
galacticpierre
galacticpierre
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June 28th, 2019 at 6:30:35 PM permalink
Thanks for that,

do you think that I should modify my hand selection for a large play bet preflop? Should I play more aggressively, a wider range of hands?
beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
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June 28th, 2019 at 6:39:35 PM permalink
Quote: galacticpierre

Thanks for that,

do you think that I should modify my hand selection for a large play bet preflop? Should I play more aggressively, a wider range of hands?



Personally, no, I don't. I think the only modification I would make is not folding when there's a good chance the dealer won't qualify, as above.

I think the strategy is so aggressive in the first place, you just put larger amounts at risk without any assurance at the 4x and 2x points that the dealer WON'T qualify.

You already have a Player Advantage with the messed up rules. You will stretch that PA further by not folding hands at the 1x or Fold point, so maybe up to 3% or so PA. But they will still take your money if the dealer qualifies and wins, so why expose more at the 4x and 2x points than the hand is worth?
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
galacticpierre
galacticpierre
Joined: May 8, 2019
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July 1st, 2019 at 12:27:32 PM permalink
Hi,

I have one other question if you don't mind helping me with. I've looked through he math and it looks very solid, however I have tried to put it into practice and I played about 12 hours with another person at a rate of about 60 hands per hour each which comes out to roughly 1,440 hands. We are currently losing 260 betting units. Is this within the range of statistical anomaly? I used to count cards in blackjack and you could "feel" the edge. For some reason I don't feel it that much in this game.

On a last note I believe to be playing pretty much 100% correct according to basic strategy on WoO. I would appreciate your help in this matter.

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