Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
• Posts: 21908
May 27th, 2019 at 6:11:48 AM permalink
Does anyone know what happens with the progressive bet if the player has a Royal Blitz AND a Double Blitz? Or two Royal Blitzes?
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
• Posts: 21908
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May 27th, 2019 at 6:18:07 AM permalink
Quote: MrBrain

I noticed the strategy for the game was not available at wizard of odds, so I did my own analysis, available at probabilitysports.com/blitz.html .

I have to say, very impressive work there! As a new member, you can't post links, so let me do it for you: MrBrain analysis of 3 Card Blitz.

I see you use a different pay table for the progressive than they have at the demo game. Is yours what they are running at Foxwoods?
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
• Posts: 21908
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May 27th, 2019 at 4:34:28 PM permalink
My page on 3 Card Blitz is ready for comments. I hope y'all like my Wizard basic strategy. The house edge of which is 0.024% higher than the optimal strategy of MrBrain.

Speaking of whom, my high compliments of doing a combinatorial analysis of the game. That is 6,071,092,494,667,200 possible combinations. While short cuts could be made, I think my code would have taken days or weeks to cycle through them all. So I punted and did a simulation.

My thanks to all for their contributions.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Gialmere
Joined: Nov 26, 2018
• Posts: 1594
May 27th, 2019 at 6:11:50 PM permalink
It's probably not worth your guy's time but, if enough players flashed their cards, how many penalty points would make playing on 18 possible?
Have you tried 22 tonight? I said 22.
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
• Posts: 21908
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May 27th, 2019 at 7:56:55 PM permalink
Quote: Gialmere

It's probably not worth your guy's time but, if enough players flashed their cards, how many penalty points would make playing on 18 possible?

I show knowledge of each extra card to be worth about 0.01%. I assume they "dragon off" a hand, leaving only 5 player hands, or 35 known cards. Based on an educated guess only, I don't think that would overcome the house edge.

I hope to investigate the game in person at the SLS as soon as I can find another excuse to go out that way.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
GBAM
Joined: Feb 26, 2019
• Posts: 82
May 28th, 2019 at 1:04:40 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I show knowledge of each extra card to be worth about 0.01%. I assume they "dragon off" a hand, leaving only 5 player hands, or 35 known cards. Based on an educated guess only, I don't think that would overcome the house edge.

I hope to investigate the game in person at the SLS as soon as I can find another excuse to go out that way.

At least at Foxwoods they do not reserve a hand. A full table will have 3 cards left in the holder.
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
• Posts: 21908
May 28th, 2019 at 6:02:30 AM permalink
Quote: GBAM

At least at Foxwoods they do not reserve a hand. A full table will have 3 cards left in the holder.

Very interesting! In that case, I think a full table of colluders, who used the information perfectly, could destroy the game (shut up Wiz!). Perhaps just knowing the total points among the ten remaining cards would be enough, ignoring the distribution of suits, would be enough.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
mrsuit31
Joined: May 29, 2010
• Posts: 1319
May 28th, 2019 at 6:32:29 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Very interesting! In that case, I think a full table of colluders, who used the information perfectly, could destroy the game (shut up Wiz!). Perhaps just knowing the total points among the ten remaining cards would be enough, ignoring the distribution of suits, would be enough.

I raised this issue with some other folks recently. I was curious to see a collusion analysis. The biggest hurdle is the transfer of full information...

Since you brought it up, wouldn't simply propping the large cards up in your hand from the rest be an easy way to relay perfect "big" card information to the other team members?
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Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
• Posts: 21908
May 30th, 2019 at 5:48:44 AM permalink
Quote: mrsuit31

Since you brought it up, wouldn't simply propping the large cards up in your hand from the rest be an easy way to relay perfect "big" card information to the other team members?

I don't know much about the fine points of such sharing of information, but if just a number wanted to be conveyed, I think simple hand gestures would be enough. I wonder if Stephen How knows about this game.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
gordonm888
Joined: Feb 18, 2015
• Posts: 2561
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May 30th, 2019 at 7:25:22 AM permalink
I took a quick look at collusion possibilities in this game about a month ago. My take was that 3-Card Blitz was not beatable by collusion; not by keeping track of high cards (which seems to me is the reasonable and correct approach).

For collusion to be effective there must be a reasonable percentage of player decisions that are "close calls." In 3 Card Blitz it is only the 19s and 18s that are close calls. Additionally, the amount of leverage on the 3 Card Blitz decisions is low -that is, only one extra unit bet being wagered or not wagered when you already have two unit bets wagered at the outset of the game. That's pretty weak leverage.

And of course, the fraction of time that the cards you see will be favorable for going against basic strategy will always be less than 50%, and usually is only 5-30%. And the amount of advantage you gain by doing this is usually modest, say 1- 20%.

If you could literally keep track of every card and know whether the dealer was likely to get certain cards in the same suits -that might help to make a difference. But that would require perfect knowledge of all the cards in player hands and math-savant-like skills to process the information.

So, I disagree with Wizard - I do not think that this game can be beat (or "crushed") by collusion without the collusion team using an electronic computer device and optical card readers that are hidden on the bodies of the collusion team players. So, I stopped grinding away at 3-Card Blitz on my computer.

I'd welcome other opinions, though. Maybe I missed something?
So many better men, a few of them friends, were dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things lived on, and so did I.