What is the definition of "A Good bet"

Curiosity sparked by wizards' signature and other member's usage and reference of the idea "a good bet".

Thanks

It's one that has a more favorable player edge, meaning less of a house edge, than other bets offered on the same game. For example, in craps, the recommendation here may be to make a pass line bet with odds, or a place-6 bet, instead of a hardways bet or a horn bet, which has a much higher house edge against you as the player.

Quote: Paigowdan

It's one that has a more favorable player edge, meaning less of a house edge, than other bets offered on the same game. For example, in craps, the recommendation here may be to make a pass line bet with odds, or a place-6 bet, instead of a hardways bet or a horn bet, which has a much higher house edge against you as the player.

I disagree that less of a house edge would qualify as a good bet. That's an oxymoron or whatever.

A -EV bet can rarely be a good bet, with a few exceptions.....splitting eights.

I don't think when Mike made his signature it had anything to do with anything that was -EV.

A good bet = Something with an advantage.

Example of a good bet yet you lost would be putting up a black chip on a $100 Blackjack match play but you lost.

Mike would refer to his signature after betting and losing a no safety prop bet on the SB.

Sorry Dan your not making good bets when your playing ploppy stuff unless your offers exceed your -EV.
Nothing wrong with playing -EV games, but lets not fool ourselves or encourage people by calling them "good bets"

Quote: AxelWolf

I disagree that less of a house edge would qualify as a good bet. That's an oxymoron or whatever.
A -EV bet can rarely be a good bet, with a few exceptions.....splitting eights.
I don't think when Mike made his signature it had anything to do with anything that was -EV.
A good bet = Something with an advantage.
Example of a good bet yet you lost would be putting up a black chip on a $100 Blackjack match play but you lost.
Mike would refer to his signature after betting and losing a no safety prop bet on the SB.
Sorry Dan your [sic] not making good bets when your playing ploppy stuff unless your offers exceed your -EV.
Nothing wrong with playing -EV games, but lets not fool ourselves or encourage people by calling them "good bets"

Fine.
For those brilliant souls who wish not to pay for their entertainment in a "pay to play" sense, then in that case the ONLY good bet is one with a player advantage. For many, this is the definition.

Good bets can be viewed either as a] the lowest negative EV, or conversely, b] to be ONLY those bets that have a positive player EV.

Please forgive me for using another school of thought over here that was contrary to your view of what a good bet is.

Ultimately, it is a personal decision in terms of the gambling that works for you.

Passline with max odds is a good bet, Wizard said he wouldn't wag his finger if you played that instead of the don't. There are worse ways to gamble and they must be bad bets.

Within one year, I bet $1,000 on the Ohio Classic lottery, cash value three times the odds. Probably 15% payout for the base game, so little daily action a split would be rare, but risky. The fact the pot could be won and never claimed, or the drawings might be rigged, kind of makes me wonder. They caught the guy rigging a few lottos recently, kind of wonderful nobody even knows it and the games never lost a step, never any pleas with the public to trust them again, because they already do, not even knowing they've been injured, not knowing money was stolen from them. It went to education lol, whatever.

For me, +EV is a necessary but not sufficient condition for something to be a good bet.

I would not call NSU (99.728%) with a 0.3% slot club a "good bet" --- even though it comes out to 100.028%. Assuming you're playing perfectly for quarters at 800 hands per hour, that game is worth 28 cents an hour. Not worth it. And I'm guessing not one player in 1,000 plays that game perfectly.

For me, a good bet has to meet certain dollar-per-hour minimums. Those minimums vary from player to player --- partially depending on bankroll, availability of good games, opportunity costs (i.e. what else I could be doing with my time), personal preferences, etc.

Quote: BobDancer

For me, +EV is a necessary but not sufficient condition for something to be a good bet.

I would not call NSU (99.728%) with a 0.3% slot club a "good bet" --- even though it comes out to 100.028%. Assuming you're playing perfectly for quarters at 800 hands per hour, that game is worth 28 cents an hour. Not worth it. And I'm guessing not one player in 1,000 plays that game perfectly.

For me, a good bet has to meet certain dollar-per-hour minimums. Those minimums vary from player to player --- partially depending on bankroll, availability of good games, opportunity costs (i.e. what else I could be doing with my time), personal preferences, etc.

Would you call it a bad bet or just a wast of time?

For me a good bet, requires
1) Net profit/hr > minimum. In addition to +EV, must be positive after expenses (Including travel, research, and training time).
At least 2x minimum wage ($20/hr), preferably $100-200/hr.

2) Within Y hours, Expected Value > 0
If a large part of the expected return is a rare occurrence, I may pass on the bet (which is why I rarely play single-line VP, I don't like 40 hrs for a royal).
I usually want something to be profitable within a month.
If I am long-term profitable on something, i may put up with year-long losing streaks.

3) Net profit/hr must be decent compared to bankroll required. (e.g. $100/hr on $5,000 bankroll, $20/hr on $500 bankroll).
Basic counting on BJ (1-1.5% edge), and most VP promotions don't meet this requirement for me.

4) Nothing illegal. (e.g. Federal, State, Indian laws).

5) Risk of getting kicked out of casino should be very very low.

6) Risk of physical violence should be almost non-existent.

7) I enjoy the process. Personally, I rarely like to play anything more than 2 hrs at a time (so don't play much live poker, or single-line VP).

I always enjoy being at a craps table, throwing a bet on the field, somebody close to me telling me thats a sucker bet, then proceeds to throw money on the hardways....

Quote: onenickelmiracle

Within one year, I bet $1,000 on the Ohio Classic lottery, cash value three times the odds. Probably 15% payout for the base game, so little daily action a split would be rare, but risky. The fact the pot could be won and never claimed, or the drawings might be rigged, kind of makes me wonder. They caught the guy rigging a few lottos recently, kind of wonderful nobody even knows it and the games never lost a step, never any pleas with the public to trust them again, because they already do, not even knowing they've been injured, not knowing money was stolen from them. It went to education lol, whatever.

I was surprised to learn that most, if not all, state lottery numbers are generated by a computer, not the ping-pong ball type machines that we see for Powerball and Mega Money. So easy to rig the system, as you just described.

OT, as a recreational gambler, a 'good bet' is one where the value of the enjoyment of placing the bet and anticipating its outcome exceeds the amount of the bet size times the HE. Good bets will maximize my enjoyment while minimizing my expected loss.

I would love to only make bets where I have the advantage, but my time and selection of casinos is very limited. I will look for advantageous plays when I am in the casino (vulturing, free play, etc.), but the vast majority of bets I make are -EV. I don't really have the knowledge to recognize most +EV plays, nor the time or ability to pursue them if I did.

Quote: onenickelmiracle

Passline with max odds is a good bet, Wizard said he wouldn't wag his finger if you played that instead of the don't. There are worse ways to gamble and they must be bad bets.

If you don't win your Passline Bet with a #7 or a #11, on the comeout roll, you've made a bad bet. You are now an underdog (2/1, 3/2, 6/5) to win your Passline Bet.

To compensate you for making this bad bet, the casino will allow you to add more money to this bad bet by offering you an odds bet.

Quote: FatGeezus

If you don't win your Passline Bet with a #7 or a #11, on the comeout roll, you've made a bad bet.

This is 100% NOT what the Wizard's postscript means. Good bet/Bad bet is NOT about results. It's about EV going in.

If Dan is against what you are doing, it's a "Good Bet". Hard to find a better description than that.

In general, a good bet must be +EV or you have to at least think it's +EV (ie: testing something).

A good bet for you and a good bet for me (stress "for you" or "for me") might be different. If you have the bankroll, flipping a coin for $20k with a 0.1% advantage might be a good bet. It wouldn't be a good bet for me because I don't have the bankroll to withstand the volatility.

A worthwhile bet is one that is +EV and worth the time. Wouldn't be worth my while to grind out $0.10 FPDW. My time could be better off being used doing something else.


It's all a balancing act. If the play is worth a little bit per hour, I want a high probability I'll come out ahead. The more it's worth, the more risk I'm willing to put into it. This isn't to say I would avoid a 0.1% advantage on 25c, but go fire away if it was $5 or $25 denom....I'd still want a legitimate strong edge.


Though it's not worthwhile, I may go play an hour of 25c FPDW, because it's easy, relaxing, and somewhat entertaining.

Quote: BobDancer

This is 100% NOT what the Wizard's postscript means. Good bet/Bad bet is NOT about results. It's about EV going in.

What are you referring to?

Quote: FatGeezus

Quote: BobDancer

This is 100% NOT what the Wizard's postscript means. Good bet/Bad bet is NOT about results. It's about EV going in.

What are you referring to?

The Wizard has a tagine in his posts that says, it's not whether you win or lose, it's whether you have a good bet (paraphrase). He's talking about Risk vs. Reward, in placing or accepting the bet, even if it's a dog or long shot. Enough similar bets will come in even if that particular bet loses, to make those bets worth doing in the long run. At leas that's my best understanding.