Harrah's BJ Cash Bonus Promo
June 13th, 2016 at 10:22:59 AM
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I'm curious about the value of this promo Harrah's Philly is running 1 night this month from 8PM-12AM only.
You get a cash bonus for the following BJ combos:
- Suited Blackjack - $50
- Red Ace + Blackjack Blackjacks (getting a blackjack using a red ace and a black jack) - $100
- Black Ace + Blackjack Blackjacks (getting a blackjack using a black ace and a black jack) - $150
- Expected 5+ Card 21s - $250
- Expected Triple 7s - $500
$25 minimum
You get a cash bonus for the following BJ combos:
- Suited Blackjack - $50
- Red Ace + Blackjack Blackjacks (getting a blackjack using a red ace and a black jack) - $100
- Black Ace + Blackjack Blackjacks (getting a blackjack using a black ace and a black jack) - $150
- Expected 5+ Card 21s - $250
- Expected Triple 7s - $500
$25 minimum
Last edited by: gamerfreak on Jun 13, 2016
June 13th, 2016 at 11:04:23 AM
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So these are bonuses in addition to the regular payout? i.e. $25 suited blackjack gets paid $37.50 and then an additional $50?
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
June 13th, 2016 at 11:21:54 AM
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Quote: RomesSo these are bonuses in addition to the regular payout? i.e. $25 suited blackjack gets paid $37.50 and then an additional $50?
That's how I read it.
"Bonuses are paid in cash. Four tables in Pit 4 from 8PM to Midnight. Minimum $25 bet tables. Guests can win more than once. "
June 13th, 2016 at 11:28:48 AM
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https://www.caesars.com/harrahs-philly/casino/harrah-s-philly-promotion#.V176uKDD8b0
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
June 13th, 2016 at 12:45:58 PM
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Quote: gamerfreak...
- Expected 5+ Card 21s - $250
- Expected Triple 7s - $500
...
I wonder if "Expected" was put in there to mean, for example, that the dealer wouldn't "expect" me to take a hit on my 4-card 17 to try to get the $250 bonus.
June 13th, 2016 at 1:00:09 PM
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Here we go again.
Let me start by showing this table of the probability and value of each of these bonuses.
This table should be considered rough. The five-card 21 was the roughest estimate, but the figure above should be considered a conservative estimate. I can say that the player will have five or more cards with probability 2.38%. Then I just divided that by 5 for the probability it would be a 21-point 5-card hand.
So, this promotion is worth $2.66 a hand, more or less. Assuming a lousy 6-5 game with a 2% house edge, the expected loss per hand will be 50 cents on a $25 bet. That would leave a profit of $2.16 a hand. Assuming 100 hands an hour, that $216 an hour expected profit. Again, please take that with a tablespoon of salt as I don't know the base blackjack rules and some of my probabilities are estimates.
Or there is something I'm missing about the rules.
Let me start by showing this table of the probability and value of each of these bonuses.
| Event | Pays | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Suited blackjack | $50 | 0.011872 | 0.593619 |
| Red ace and black jack | $100 | 0.002968 | 0.296809 |
| Black ace and black jack | $150 | 0.002968 | 0.445214 |
| Five-card 21 | $250 | 0.004533 | 1.133362 |
| Triple seven | $500 | 0.000385 | 0.192276 |
| Total | 0.022727 | 2.661280 |
This table should be considered rough. The five-card 21 was the roughest estimate, but the figure above should be considered a conservative estimate. I can say that the player will have five or more cards with probability 2.38%. Then I just divided that by 5 for the probability it would be a 21-point 5-card hand.
So, this promotion is worth $2.66 a hand, more or less. Assuming a lousy 6-5 game with a 2% house edge, the expected loss per hand will be 50 cents on a $25 bet. That would leave a profit of $2.16 a hand. Assuming 100 hands an hour, that $216 an hour expected profit. Again, please take that with a tablespoon of salt as I don't know the base blackjack rules and some of my probabilities are estimates.
Or there is something I'm missing about the rules.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
June 13th, 2016 at 1:02:25 PM
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Quote: WizardHere we go again.
Let me start by showing this table of the probability and value of each of these bonuses.
Event Pays Probability Return Suited blackjack $50 0.011872 0.593619 Red ace and black jack $100 0.002968 0.296809 Black ace and black jack $150 0.002968 0.445214 Five-card 21 $250 0.004533 1.133362 Triple seven $500 0.000385 0.192276 Total 0.022727 2.661280
This table should be considered rough. The five-card 21 was the roughest estimate, but the figure above should be considered a conservative estimate. I can say that the player will have five or more cards with probability 2.38%. Then I just divided that by 5 for the probability it would be a 21-point 5-card hand.
So, this promotion is worth $2.66 a hand, more or less. Assuming a lousy 6-5 game with a 2% house edge, the expected loss per hand will be 50 cents on a $25 bet. That would leave a profit of $2.16 a hand. Assuming 100 hands an hour, that $216 an hour expected profit.
Or there is something I'm missing about the rules.
This is Harrah's Philly, so the game will be 3:2, S17, LS.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
June 13th, 2016 at 1:06:35 PM
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Quote: IbeatyouracesThis is Harrah's Philly, so the game will be 3:2, S17, LS.
All the better! Assuming no re-splitting aces, the house edge would be 0.35%, or an expected loss of 8.75 cents a hand. A small price to pay for the $2.66 in bonuses.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
June 13th, 2016 at 1:54:46 PM
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No way one is seeing 100 hands an hour, especially with that five card bonus.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
June 13th, 2016 at 2:02:32 PM
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I wonder how long this'll last...
June 13th, 2016 at 2:04:42 PM
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Quote: RSI wonder how long this'll last...
4 hours :^)
Assume the worst, believe no one, and make your move only when you are certain that you are unbeatable or have, at worst, exceptionally good odds in your favor.
June 13th, 2016 at 2:24:10 PM
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Quote: RSI wonder how long this'll last...
It's only supposed to go four hours and four tables.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
June 13th, 2016 at 2:24:50 PM
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Quote: billryanNo way one is seeing 100 hands an hour, especially with that five card bonus.
Good point. Not to mention a full table and I wouldn't be surprised if the dealers slow play it.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
June 13th, 2016 at 3:57:27 PM
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Quote: WizardGood point. Not to mention a full table and I wouldn't be surprised if the dealers slow play it.
Almost 100% chance that there will be ASM on those tables.
Why would dealers deal slow. They are assured to get some nice tips.
My question is, how many hours ahead of time will those tables all be locked up? On PA you are supposed to pay double if you play 2 or more hands. One could play 3 hands at $50 each and make a killing.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed.
I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
June 13th, 2016 at 4:28:31 PM
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The double is not true at all casinos - It may be the case at harrahs but it 100 percent is not at sugarhouse
You are right thought honestly lucky if you get 40-50 hands an hour at that promo- I'm sure the floor has to verify the bonus and that is going to slow things down, plus other factors which I won't mention but will slow down the pace
Also 100000 percent every one playing gets tagged in the system and if you don't have a local address you are most likely no mailed from it
You are right thought honestly lucky if you get 40-50 hands an hour at that promo- I'm sure the floor has to verify the bonus and that is going to slow things down, plus other factors which I won't mention but will slow down the pace
Also 100000 percent every one playing gets tagged in the system and if you don't have a local address you are most likely no mailed from it
No longer hiring, don’t ask because I won’t hire you either
June 13th, 2016 at 9:48:53 PM
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The pit may tell them to slow things down.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
June 14th, 2016 at 3:53:10 AM
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So here's a question then, if they do slow it down a bit and verify all the bonuses etc. what do you think this promo actually costs per night? Even if we assume all the spots are filled by players who play perfect, how much do they theoretically get hit for?
Then in reality, how bad is the promo? People turn up wanting to play this, but cant get a seat, play another game anyway, get some food? players play this and make mistakes?
Then in reality, how bad is the promo? People turn up wanting to play this, but cant get a seat, play another game anyway, get some food? players play this and make mistakes?
Guess who peed in my Cheerios? Romes did...
June 14th, 2016 at 4:11:44 AM
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If the dealers dont slow it down since most likely the table(s) will be filled with pros the game should go faster.
Sounds fun to bad it's not longer or it might be worth it to bring "a friend" and play. Wondering if you could play 2 hands?
On something like this, If the count gets good would YOU risk heat and pump up your bet to make it worth more per hour. I say yes since it's only a few hours.
Sounds fun to bad it's not longer or it might be worth it to bring "a friend" and play. Wondering if you could play 2 hands?
On something like this, If the count gets good would YOU risk heat and pump up your bet to make it worth more per hour. I say yes since it's only a few hours.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
June 14th, 2016 at 7:10:05 AM
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Is you find a good count on a csm I would jump all over it now
No longer hiring, don’t ask because I won’t hire you either
June 14th, 2016 at 7:29:21 AM
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Quote: gamerfreakThat's how I read it.
"Bonuses are paid in cash. Four tables in Pit 4 from 8PM to Midnight. Minimum $25 bet tables. Guests can win more than once. "
only 4 tables? 24 seats?
god, I cant imagine how long you have to camp out there to get a seat?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice).
Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
June 14th, 2016 at 9:44:46 AM
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Quote: HeyMrDJSo here's a question then, if they do slow it down a bit and verify all the bonuses etc. what do you think this promo actually costs per night? Even if we assume all the spots are filled by players who play perfect, how much do they theoretically get hit for?
I imagine this is a loss leader, meaning they run a promo that they know loses money to get more warm bodies in the casino. If everyone at all 4 promo tables played 50 perfect hands per hour, they would be making $108/hr which would cost the casino $10,368 over 4 hours. Certainly more than 24 people will turn out for this promotion, and I imagine when most of those people won't just go home when they can't get a seat - they're going to gamble.
It's the same concept as that $5 rotisserie chicken at the front of the grocery store.
June 14th, 2016 at 9:57:10 AM
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Quote: gamerfreakI imagine this is a loss leader, meaning they run a promo that they know loses money to get more warm bodies in the casino. If everyone at all 4 promo tables played 50 perfect hands per hour, they would be making $108/hr which would cost the casino $10,368 over 4 hours. Certainly more than 24 people will turn out for this promotion, and I imagine when most of those people won't just go home when they can't get a seat - they're going to gamble.
It's the same concept as that $5 rotisserie chicken at the front of the grocery store.
Off topic but $5 rotisserie chicken isn't actually selling at a loss, just low margin.
Assume the worst, believe no one, and make your move only when you are certain that you are unbeatable or have, at worst, exceptionally good odds in your favor.
June 14th, 2016 at 9:58:48 AM
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Quote: DiscreteMaths2Off topic but $5 rotisserie chicken isn't actually selling at a loss, just low margin.
I remember reading that, but it's the best loss leader analogy I could rack my brain for.
June 14th, 2016 at 10:29:04 AM
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Quote: gamerfreakIf everyone at all 4 promo tables played 50 perfect hands per hour, they would be making $108/hr which would cost the casino $10,368 over 4 hours.
It is costing the casino far more. You have not factored in the money they would have made on those 4 tables during those 4 hours. At least a few thousand more. But you are correct, this is a loss leader. My guess is the casual player who is not an AP but is attracted by the offer will be pissed when there are no seats because they have all been pre-secured by APs.
June 14th, 2016 at 10:36:44 AM
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Doubtful it'll be all AP's. Sure there will be some, but not every seat.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
June 14th, 2016 at 11:55:29 AM
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Quote: SOOPOOIt is costing the casino far more. You have not factored in the money they would have made on those 4 tables during those 4 hours. At least a few thousand more.
I don't follow. Everyone at the table are still playing $25 minimum hands at -EV (unless they're counting).
June 14th, 2016 at 11:59:40 AM
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Anyone know what the max bet allowed is and is betting max the optimal bet?
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
June 14th, 2016 at 12:01:15 PM
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Quote: IbeatyouracesAnyone know what the max bet allowed is and is betting max the optimal bet?
I would imagine betting the minimum is optimal. The bonus doesn't change based on your base bet.
June 14th, 2016 at 12:03:35 PM
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The word expected does not make ANY SENSE whatsoever
No longer hiring, don’t ask because I won’t hire you either
June 14th, 2016 at 12:04:28 PM
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Quote: gamerfreakI would imagine betting the minimum is optimal. The bonus doesn't change based on your base bet.
What I figured.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
June 14th, 2016 at 12:07:13 PM
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Quote: WizardofnothingThe word expected does not make ANY SENSE whatsoever
The only thing I can think is that you aren't allowed to change your strategy to try and get 5+ card 21 or trip 7's.
I.E. you couldn't hit 7-7 with the dealer showing a 2.
I feel like that isn't right though, I can't imagine how they would enforce it.
June 14th, 2016 at 12:22:55 PM
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Here's a thought... Someone call and ask? I'm not because I'm not going to be participating so oh well.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
June 14th, 2016 at 12:24:31 PM
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Quote: Romes... I'm not because I'm not going to be participating so oh well.
We already have 24 people camping out there!!! :-)
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
June 14th, 2016 at 12:46:32 PM
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Quote: RomesHere's a thought... Someone call and ask? I'm not because I'm not going to be participating so oh well.
I called and the lady that picked up did not know, and couldn't get a hold of anyone from marketing/promotions. I'm going to try again tomorrow.
June 14th, 2016 at 12:55:02 PM
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You may get lucky but my view is most times calling is a waste of time and only hurts to alert people that there is a lot of interest and then they sometimes modify before it starts
No longer hiring, don’t ask because I won’t hire you either
June 14th, 2016 at 1:05:26 PM
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Quote: gamerfreakThe only thing I can think is that you aren't allowed to change your strategy to try and get 5+ card 21 or trip 7's.
I.E. you couldn't hit 7-7 with the dealer showing a 2.
I feel like that isn't right though, I can't imagine how they would enforce it.
You guys are way overthinking this one. I have done a promo at this casino once before (not as good as this current one). My prediction: They are not going to restrict your playing decisions. They are not going to slow deal. They are not going to back you off for getting too many bonus payouts. They may back you off for counting. However, I doubt they are going to anymore vigilant than usual.
This promo is during prime time. The table will be full of ploppies. So expect a slow game. There would have been few (if any) APs. But you just posted this on an AP site. That was incredibly stupid. Now there WILL be APs at the tables. Possibly the generous marketing department will not be so generous anymore.
June 14th, 2016 at 1:16:19 PM
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Quote: AvincowThere would have been few (if any) APs. But you just posted this on an AP site. That was incredibly stupid. Now there WILL be APs at the tables.
The promo is posted on their site publicly. If there's suddenly a flood of AP's trying to cash in on this because of my thread alone, they aren't great AP's.
June 14th, 2016 at 1:19:19 PM
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Quote: WizardofnothingThe word expected does not make ANY SENSE whatsoever
I think it might have to do with splitting, so people don't try to get cutesy and say I have 3 7's or more than 5 cards counting between the splits.
Assume the worst, believe no one, and make your move only when you are certain that you are unbeatable or have, at worst, exceptionally good odds in your favor.
June 14th, 2016 at 1:21:56 PM
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Quote: gamerfreakThe promo is posted on their site publicly. If there's suddenly a flood of AP's trying to cash in on this because of my thread alone, they aren't great AP's.
There is an incredible amount of junk promos that are widely available. Sifting through them to find the good ones is time consuming. This is one of the good promos. So thanks for saving me the work I guess. I wasn't really planning on playing this month, but maybe I will now. However, I am still tryin to predict whether it will be worth the time. I think it will be too crowded.
June 14th, 2016 at 1:25:29 PM
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Quote: gamerfreakThe promo is posted on their site publicly. If there's suddenly a flood of AP's trying to cash in on this because of my thread alone, they aren't great AP's.
There are over 1000 casinos in the USA alone believe it or not AP's find things out by word of mouth and happenstance.
Assume the worst, believe no one, and make your move only when you are certain that you are unbeatable or have, at worst, exceptionally good odds in your favor.
June 14th, 2016 at 1:28:19 PM
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Definitely a weird choice of words
No longer hiring, don’t ask because I won’t hire you either
June 14th, 2016 at 1:29:37 PM
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Would have been much easier to word it the way they do in Spanish 21 and say bonus not valid on splits and Doyle's- why the heck does expected mean to any normal person in relation to that promo
No longer hiring, don’t ask because I won’t hire you either
June 14th, 2016 at 1:38:56 PM
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Quote: gamerfreakI don't follow. Everyone at the table are still playing $25 minimum hands at -EV (unless they're counting).
In thinking about it, you are probably correct. Can I assume though that basic strategy would change.... If dealt a pair of black Jacks you would likely split them?
June 19th, 2016 at 7:34:29 AM
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Quote: SOOPOOCan I assume though that basic strategy would change.... If dealt a pair of black Jacks you would likely split them?
Looking at the Wizards infinite deck expected values appendix I would think you should split a pair of jacks against a dealer 2-8, split a J and other 10 card against a dealer 2-7 and split not Jack tens against a dealer 5-6.
June 19th, 2016 at 8:09:08 AM
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Quote: someoneLooking at the Wizards infinite deck expected values appendix I would think you should split a pair of jacks against a dealer 2-8, split a J and other 10 card against a dealer 2-7 and split not Jack tens against a dealer 5-6.
A 2-card 21 resulting from split tens or split aces would not be a blackjack and should not be eligible for the Blackjack Mania blackjack bonuses. However, a 5-card 21 resulting from hitting a 4-card 17 might be eligible for the Blackjack Mania "Expected 5+ Card 21" bonus.
June 20th, 2016 at 5:18:06 AM
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Not sure if this was mention or if it's fact, but it makes sense, they pick 4 random tables in the pit.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
June 20th, 2016 at 5:50:57 AM
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Does that matter? Unless they random lot pick at the minute it starts so you would have no idea how to lock up a spot
No longer hiring, don’t ask because I won’t hire you either
June 20th, 2016 at 6:08:06 AM
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Quote: ChesterDogA 2-card 21 resulting from split tens or split aces would not be a blackjack and should not be eligible for the Blackjack Mania blackjack bonuses.
Thanks for that Chester. I knew a split Ace wouldn't count as a natural but didn't realize the rule applied to split tens as well.
June 25th, 2016 at 8:41:17 AM
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Quote: WizardofnothingDoes that matter? Unless they random lot pick at the minute it starts so you would have no idea how to lock up a spot
at my local casino, it was 6 tables for this promo.
and surprisingly it wasn't that full?!
at the start there was no organized seat assignments because there weren't that many people!
not sure if the pitboss had a plan but he just told everyone to take seat when the event started.
there were still open spots at most of the tables!
around an hr after it started there were people circling to find a spot.
1/2hr before the end of the promo, an entire table was empty w/a bored dealer!
basic strategy went out the window chasing the 5+ card 21, and 777 bonuses ($500 and $1000 promo chips, respectively).
people would hit on a 4 card hard 17 when the dealer was showing a 6.
same when people were dealt 77.
only heard of 1 person winning 777 because of how loud she screamed.
(there may have been others that won the $1000 bonus but weren't as loud.)
from what I saw, everyone was playing the table min except one guy.
he was varying his bet size. I assumed he was counting. (6 deck shoe, not csm!!!)
I won $700 in promo chips from various blackjacks (suited, red ace/black jack, black ace/black jack).
had 5 card 19's and 20's all nite long but never the 21. heck, had a SOFT 4card 21 and drew, hoping for one of the many 10s. (got a 9.)
never had a chance at 777. a guy at my table had like 5 chances but missed them all. he did hit a couple of 5card 21s plus lots of special blackjacks for $2000+ in promo chips.
Last edited by: 100xOdds on Jun 25, 2016
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice).
Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
June 25th, 2016 at 9:59:11 AM
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Was the promo where you went different, in that the prizes were paid in promo chips? Philly said cash.
