BobbyQ
BobbyQ
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May 21st, 2016 at 12:04:00 PM permalink
I know that I am not supposed to play 6-5 blackjack, but should I find myself in this situation is there any time that it would be advantageous to double down on a blackjack instead of taking the 6-5 payout?
gordonm888
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gordonm888
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May 21st, 2016 at 12:56:47 PM permalink
This was covered in a previous thread. The answer is NO, do not double down on a soft 21/Blackjack.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
Ibeatyouraces
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May 21st, 2016 at 1:08:55 PM permalink
When you know the next card is a 10
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Wizard
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May 21st, 2016 at 2:26:27 PM permalink
Quote: BobbyQ

I know that I am not supposed to play 6-5 blackjack, but should I find myself in this situation is there any time that it would be advantageous to double down on a blackjack instead of taking the 6-5 payout?



Okay, I hope you're happy. According to my analysis I show that you would need a True Count of +18, using the hi-lo, if blackjack pays 6-5, and the dealer were showing a 5, and dealer hits a soft 17, for doubling to be the right play.

Not that you asked, but if a blackjack paid 3-2, you would wait until a True Count of +27.

These answers are theoretical, and assume that the distribution of cards within a group (small, neutral, large) are equal, and the number of neutral cards per rank is equal to the average number of combined small and large cards per rank.

I would trust a random simulation more than my figures, but mine should be right or within 1. Here is the perfect opportunity for QFIT to chime in.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
DeMango
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May 22nd, 2016 at 1:45:59 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Here is the perfect opportunity for QFIT to chime in.



Crickets
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
RonC
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May 22nd, 2016 at 1:47:40 PM permalink
Yoohoo....QFIT...where are you?
Deucekies
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May 22nd, 2016 at 1:53:26 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Okay, I hope you're happy. According to my analysis I show that you would need a True Count of +18, using the hi-lo, if blackjack pays 6-5, and the dealer were showing a 5, and dealer hits a soft 17, for doubling to be the right play.

Not that you asked, but if a blackjack paid 3-2, you would wait until a True Count of +27.



In other words, as someone else said, the shoe would have to be hot enough to burn a hole through the table.
Casinos are not your friends, they want your money. But so does Disneyland. And there is no chance in hell that you will go to Disneyland and come back with more money than you went with. - AxelWolf and Mickeycrimm
Ibeatyouraces
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May 22nd, 2016 at 2:03:47 PM permalink
Too put it in perspective, I believe you need a TC of +13 to double on a soft 21 after splitting 10's and catching an ace. Someone can check that for me if they wish.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
DJTeddyBear
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May 22nd, 2016 at 3:30:39 PM permalink
If your bet is low enough, then you can do it, as well as split tens, more for the comedic value of everyone's response than for a real odds advantage.


If I find a $1 table, which usually pays even money for BJ!, I'll sit for a while, just so I can double those BJs and split the tens...

Lot of fun.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ 覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧 Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
RS
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May 22nd, 2016 at 5:10:51 PM permalink
If you guys want Norm to come here to post (seems odd people would want that, IMO).....you can't just say Norm or QFIT....ya gotta type something that'll show up on his google search. Like Norm Wattenberger or KJ kewlj kewljason shouldn't be banned or Hilo is the best count or I'm not interested in forum wars or fights.

I predict Norm will be here within 5 minutes of this being posted.
RonC
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May 22nd, 2016 at 5:46:41 PM permalink
Quote: RS

If you guys want Norm to come here to post (seems odd people would want that, IMO).....you can't just say Norm or QFIT....ya gotta type something that'll show up on his google search. Like Norm Wattenberger or KJ kewlj kewljason shouldn't be banned or Hilo is the best count or I'm not interested in forum wars or fights.

I predict Norm will be here within 5 minutes of this being posted.



He didn't make it within five minutes. I don't really care if he ever shows up again; I am sure he feels the same about me. I just feel that he got his way and now has left us for the most part. That is shown by looking at his posting history of late. I'm sure he is full of good knowledge but he does not participate here because someone may challenge his actions here; Kewlj may have screwed by falling into the trap that was set for him, but he was a much more valuable poster to this forum than Q "Throw a" Fit has been so far.
vwchong
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April 12th, 2022 at 11:41:54 PM permalink
Hi, i am new to this forum. I just want to know where do I post a question to the Wizard about Blackjack? Thanks.
OnceDear
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April 13th, 2022 at 12:31:12 AM permalink
Quote: vwchong

Hi, i am new to this forum. I just want to know where do I post a question to the Wizard about Blackjack? Thanks.
link to original post


Hi.
Post your question here and see who answers. If it is of interest to the Wizard, he may reply, but if not someone will.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
aceside
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April 13th, 2022 at 5:21:21 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Quote: BobbyQ

I know that I am not supposed to play 6-5 blackjack, but should I find myself in this situation is there any time that it would be advantageous to double down on a blackjack instead of taking the 6-5 payout?



These answers are theoretical, and assume that the distribution of cards within a group (small, neutral, large) are equal, and the number of neutral cards per rank is equal to the average number of combined small and large cards per rank.

I would trust a random simulation more than my figures, but mine should be right or within 1. Here is the perfect opportunity for QFIT to chime in.
link to original post


Interesting. The first assumption is self-proving, but the second needs some mathematical justification.
gordonm888
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April 13th, 2022 at 11:30:49 AM permalink
Quote: aceside

Quote: Wizard

Quote: BobbyQ

I know that I am not supposed to play 6-5 blackjack, but should I find myself in this situation is there any time that it would be advantageous to double down on a blackjack instead of taking the 6-5 payout?



These answers are theoretical, and assume that the distribution of cards within a group (small, neutral, large) are equal, and the number of neutral cards per rank is equal to the average number of combined small and large cards per rank.

I would trust a random simulation more than my figures, but mine should be right or within 1. Here is the perfect opportunity for QFIT to chime in.
link to original post


Interesting. The first assumption is self-proving, but the second needs some mathematical justification.
link to original post



I suspect the Wizard was using a mathematical technique in which he considers, at some level of granularity, the abundance of 2-6 and T,A cards but ignores the neutral cards (7,8, and 9) as a means of simplifying the analysis.* If so, then a disproportional abundance of those neutral cards remaining in the shoe would tend to change his analysis results especially because he is referring to cases in which the true count is an extreme value.

*Edit: Not sure whether Ace would be treated as neutral or not. With a very high relative abundance of Tens, it might have an EOR that is higher than its normal value.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
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