probability of flopping top set to quads
February 23rd, 2016 at 2:25:28 PM
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With in the past 2 months I've had AA vs JJ on an A J J flop as well as 99 vs 33 on a 9 3 3 flop. I'm really curious to find out what are the odds of flopping top set to quads once and then twice? It happened today for the second time so my mind is a little boggled.
February 23rd, 2016 at 2:32:59 PM
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Not quite top set, but pretty close. And it gets sicker!
https://youtu.be/EKh0_rQhCpY
https://youtu.be/EKh0_rQhCpY
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
February 23rd, 2016 at 2:37:13 PM
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Well pair over pair in poker is a 4-1 (80/20) favorite. After that however you lose (4 card straight, 4 card flush, etc) is clearly part of the 20%.
So your odds of losing twice with a 4-1 favorite are .2*.2 = .04, or about 1 in 25.
To get down to the specifics, assuming you start with those hands (not figuring the odds of getting dealt those hands) the odds that you hit a set and he flops quads are the combination of those 2:
P(Hitting a set on the flop) = 2/47 * 2/47 * 2/47 (since we don't care which card you flop a set with)
P(Flopping Quads) = 2/47 * 2/47 * 1/46).... which assumes how you stated, that he missed the first flop card then hit both...
P(Flop Set Against Quads) = P(Hitting a set on the flop) * P(Flopping Quads)
Odds of that happening twice? Square the result... I'll leave it to you to fill in the decimals =).
So your odds of losing twice with a 4-1 favorite are .2*.2 = .04, or about 1 in 25.
To get down to the specifics, assuming you start with those hands (not figuring the odds of getting dealt those hands) the odds that you hit a set and he flops quads are the combination of those 2:
P(Hitting a set on the flop) = 2/47 * 2/47 * 2/47 (since we don't care which card you flop a set with)
P(Flopping Quads) = 2/47 * 2/47 * 1/46).... which assumes how you stated, that he missed the first flop card then hit both...
P(Flop Set Against Quads) = P(Hitting a set on the flop) * P(Flopping Quads)
Odds of that happening twice? Square the result... I'll leave it to you to fill in the decimals =).
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
February 23rd, 2016 at 4:51:17 PM
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I think the probability of hitting a set on the flop when you have a pocket pair is actually 1 - (48/50 * 47/49 * 46/48) = about 0.118 This is just under 1 in 8 flops which corresponds to what most poker books will tell you. That's an easy one, I would have to think a bit more to calculate the quads but I'm sure many here know it immediately.
