DreamBig
DreamBig
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Joined: Dec 8, 2015
December 8th, 2015 at 11:40:57 AM permalink
When the dealer has a low card, the basic strategy calls for hitting rather than doubling in certain circumstances, such as when the dealer's up card is an 8 or below. But the strategy also calls for standing when the player has 12 and up on a dealer low card [except on a dealer's 2 or 3 against the player's 12]. So basically, when the dealer has a low card, you are basically betting that they will bust, because you're not going to beat them with a 12-16 because they have to hit until 17. SO, if you're betting that they will bust, why not just double ANY hand 11 and under on a dealer's low card? Assuming that they will probably bust?

Thanks!
RS
RS
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December 8th, 2015 at 11:49:21 AM permalink
Because they are more likely to make a hand (17-21) than to bust.
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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December 8th, 2015 at 12:24:55 PM permalink
You are not standing on a 12 because you think the dealer will bust; you are standing on 12 because it is a better play than hitting on the 12, given that 4/13 of the time, you will draw a 10 or face card and bust, and also 4/13 of the time, you will draw an Ace through 4, and still have a total less than 17, so you didn't really improve your hand.
Francisco
Francisco
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December 11th, 2015 at 6:14:35 PM permalink
Another way of looking at this situation:
Bust rate for banker showing up card of 2 is 35%
3 is 38%
4 is 40%
5 is 43%
6. Is 43% ( Mensa guide to casino gambling, page 50 )
So you will be losing 57% to 65% if you stand on 16 and below. Not a good strategy.
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