Learning to analyze side bets
I want to learn to analyze side bets and learn if things are count-able and how profitable they are. I'm very interested in the math, and moderately interested in the money :P.
I've started with the lucky lady's (blackjack) side bet, and have successfully recreated the same house advantage that Shackleford has calculated on his website Wizard of Odds (although his results differ slightly from Jacobson's on APheat). Now, my next question is "Can I determine EoR using Excel?" I am much more proficient with Excel than C (I have some experience, but limited), but I was hoping I could analyze EoR and develop count systems using Excel. I would be be pretty comfortable writing in VBA if necessary.
I won't go too far down the math road, but what I can tell you is you're doing all the right things but they're not necessary.
The lucky lady side bet is a well known side bet with certain pay tables and HE associated. There has also been extensive research done to show when the side bet becomes profitable to the player (Hi/Low TC +6.5). Lastly, you don't need to create a new count. Simply use the Tens count (profitable at TC +6, pending the number of decks). This will be more accurate for your insurance correlation, and it will provide you a more accurate counting method to attack the Lucky Ladies side bet. There are even very slight variations with all of the math outcomes shown on apheat.net. Simply google "card counting lucky ladies" and it'll be the first hit.
More/less every side bet has been mathematically analyzed by one professional or another (The Wiz, Dr. Jacobson, etc). Unless you want to re-do the math from an educational/experimental standpoint there's really no reason to reinvent the wheel, in my opinion. There's also extensive math analysis on pretty much every beatable side bet there is today, all one would do is google how to beat <insert side bet name here>.
You will quickly outgrow VBA in Excel. You can do it, but it's the wrong tool for the job.Quote: StrangeMageI've started with the lucky lady's (blackjack) side bet, and have successfully recreated the same house advantage that Shackleford has calculated on his website Wizard of Odds (although his results differ slightly from Jacobson's on APheat). Now, my next question is "Can I determine EoR using Excel?" I am much more proficient with Excel than C (I have some experience, but limited), but I was hoping I could analyze EoR and develop count systems using Excel. I would be be pretty comfortable writing in VBA if necessary.
Still, if you want to use Excel for doing EoR analysis, what I'd do is make your analysis based on the dynamically-computed contents of a deck as depicted in a range of cells, rather than hard-coded numbers in your formulas. You'll need 52 for suit-dependent bets like LL, so just have a 52-long column of numbers, with 6 in each for a six-deck game. Have some summations and do your EV analysis based on those summations. Then to do EoR analysis, just set one of the cells to 5 and see how things change.
Please be specific. Which results differ?Quote: StrangeMageI've started with the lucky lady's (blackjack) side bet, and have successfully recreated the same house advantage that Shackleford has calculated on his website Wizard of Odds (although his results differ slightly from Jacobson's on APheat.
As a new member, you might not recognize the teliot username. He's Eliot Jacobson.Quote: teliotPlease be specific. Which results differ?
Hey, you gave away my real identity! (Kidding)Quote: DJTeddyBearAs a new member, you might not recognize the teliot username. He's Eliot Jacobson.
Same results, different method. My bad.
I'm sure the way I'm calculating these aren't the most efficient way. They're clunky and plenty of room for error. I'm using a permutational analysis to determine EoR, and it seems like I have the correct EoR for 2-8, but I'm a little off on 10, A and 9. Checking my work today.
I'm realizing my method will be extremely limited when it comes to analyzing side bets for play based side bets (bust it, lucky stiff, buster bonus etc). I think once I think I've got a good handle on this, I guess it's time to figure out how to simulate these games and add side bet rules.
Quote: MathExtremistYou will quickly outgrow VBA in Excel. You can do it, but it's the wrong tool for the job.
Still, if you want to use Excel for doing EoR analysis, what I'd do is make your analysis based on the dynamically-computed contents of a deck as depicted in a range of cells, rather than hard-coded numbers in your formulas. You'll need 52 for suit-dependent bets like LL, so just have a 52-long column of numbers, with 6 in each for a six-deck game. Have some summations and do your EV analysis based on those summations. Then to do EoR analysis, just set one of the cells to 5 and see how things change.
Thanks @MathExtremist , I think I'll give this a try.
I've never heard the expression "permutational analysis," though surely I've solved some problems that way.Quote: StrangeMageI posted this amidst the middle of my work. I know realize that Shackleford used a permutational analysis and you used a combinational analysis. The number of ways to hit a QhQhvsBJ was different between your two analysis, as well as the total number of possible hands. I was comparing 6deck. Shack has 135360 (I got the same), you got 33840 = (6*5*(4*6)*(16*6-2))/2. However you both came to the same house edge. The permutational analysis makes more sense to me intuitively. For example, I can't seem to understand how you got 27,588,756 for total number of hands. Shack's answer of 9,294,695,280 to me is an obvious (52*6) nPr (4).
My method was to run four nested loops:
For 2 decks:
player_card_1: 1 to 104
player_card_2: player_card_1 + 1 to 104
dealer_card_1: 1 to 104
continue if dealer_card_1 equal to player_card_1 or player_card_2
dealer_card_2: dealer_card_1 + 1 to 104
continue if dealer_card_2 equal to player_card_1 or player_card_2
score the quadruple (pc1, pc2, dc1, dc2)
Quote: mipletNot sure if it will help, but I have copies of my blackjack side bet spreadsheets at http://miplet.net/blackjack/ . They're all deck composition editable. Feel free to ask any questions.
Thanks for sharing.
Quote: MathExtremistYou will quickly outgrow VBA in Excel. You can do it, but it's the wrong tool for the job.
Still, if you want to use Excel for doing EoR analysis, what I'd do is make your analysis based on the dynamically-computed contents of a deck as depicted in a range of cells, rather than hard-coded numbers in your formulas. You'll need 52 for suit-dependent bets like LL, so just have a 52-long column of numbers, with 6 in each for a six-deck game. Have some summations and do your EV analysis based on those summations. Then to do EoR analysis, just set one of the cells to 5 and see how things change.
MathExtremist, what do you recommend is the best tool for the job? I have a good grasp on calculating house edge and EoR for simple side bets now. However, I'm wanting to run some simulations on typical count systems to see if I can reproduce the same results.
Quote: mipletNot sure if it will help, but I have copies of my blackjack side bet spreadsheets at http://miplet.net/blackjack/ . They're all deck composition editable. Feel free to ask any questions.
Thank you miplet, this was extremely helpful. A question on your busterbj analysis. How did you determine the number of possible ways of busting? It looks like this list was generated not manually.
I wrote a program for that. And because I'm Evil™, I used PHP. Highly un-commented code is here.Quote: StrangeMageThank you miplet, this was extremely helpful. A question on your busterbj analysis. How did you determine the number of possible ways of busting? It looks like this list was generated not manually.
