House edge of place 6&8

It is well known that the HE of a place 6/8 is 1.52% = (7*5-6*6)/(6*11).

I was reading an article at casino city times about placing $44 inside (Jerry Stickman, July 25, 2015) and was unsettled at the content. After thinking about it more, I believe Jerry is wrong. Consider a $6 place bet on 6 and a $6 place bet on 8. I claim that the HE of this bet is (7*10-12*6)/(12*16) = 1.04%, which makes this a better bet than $12 on either of the 6 or 8 AND better than 2 separate $6 place bets.

Although seemingly counterintuitive, the explanation is that this bet resolves more frequently than a single place bet (and much more frequently than 2 separate place bets). If you agree with this calculation, then the $44 inside bet really does have a HE of 1.14%.

What do people think? I know this is somewhat of a triviality...but, l'm surprised not to have seen this aspect of combining bets to lower the HE.

Before I get flamed, just answer this question...what is the HE of a $12 bet that wins $7, 5/8th of the time (and loses 3/8th of the time)?

Quote: MB

Consider a $6 place bet on 6 and a $6 place bet on 8. I claim that the HE of this bet is (7*10-12*6)/(12*16) = 1.04%,

you can claim whatever you wish
nice try
so i claim you are wrong on a tiny part of your calculation

i agree on the ev part
(7*10 - 12*6) = -2

the 12*16 in the denom
is not the total resolved action
(it is only total AT RISK action and regular HE calculations do not use this)

total action
6*12 = 72 for the 7 roll
PLUS
10*6 = 60 for ONE PLACE BET WIN (the other $6 Place Bet has nothing to do with resolving for a win or a loss)
72+60=132
so -2/132 = -1/66 =
-0.015151515
**********************
here a method that adds color (the Donald Catlin method i call it)

**********************
this is called
comparing
apples to oranges
many think it is
apples to apples

but now time for ice cream
Sally

Angels keep losing too many games
I won my over bet, but now really do not like them losing when only scoring 0,1 or 2 runs
maybe tomorrow will be better

Quote: MB

It is well known that the HE of a place 6/8 is 1.52% = (7*5-6*6)/(6*11).

I was reading an article at casino city times about placing $44 inside (Jerry Stickman, July 25, 2015) and was unsettled at the content. After thinking about it more, I believe Jerry is wrong. Consider a $6 place bet on 6 and a $6 place bet on 8. I claim that the HE of this bet is (7*10-12*6)/(12*16) = 1.04%, which makes this a better bet than $12 on either of the 6 or 8 AND better than 2 separate $6 place bets.

Although seemingly counterintuitive, the explanation is that this bet resolves more frequently than a single place bet (and much more frequently than 2 separate place bets). If you agree with this calculation, then the $44 inside bet really does have a HE of 1.14%.

What do people think? I know this is somewhat of a triviality...but, l'm surprised not to have seen this aspect of combining bets to lower the HE.

Before I get flamed, just answer this question...what is the HE of a $12 bet that wins $7, 5/8th of the time (and loses 3/8th of the time)?

If I'm following you, and your math method is correct in the last sentence, then for every $35 you win, (7*5 out of 8) you lose $36 (12*3 out of 8). Isn't that the exact same rate as betting 1 number (either 6 or 8) with 7*5 out of 36, vs. 6*6 out of 36? Understanding that you're keying in on the rate of resolution perhaps doubling on playing both, but if you're doubling your bet at the same time, you have twice the risk, so I don't see how it would change the HE.

Quote: MB

It is well known that the HE of a place 6/8 is 1.52% = (7*5-6*6)/(6*11).

I was reading an article at casino city times about placing $44 inside (Jerry Stickman, July 25, 2015) and was unsettled at the content. After thinking about it more, I believe Jerry is wrong. Consider a $6 place bet on 6 and a $6 place bet on 8. I claim that the HE of this bet is (7*10-12*6)/(12*16) = 1.04%, which makes this a better bet than $12 on either of the 6 or 8 AND better than 2 separate $6 place bets.

Although seemingly counterintuitive, the explanation is that this bet resolves more frequently than a single place bet (and much more frequently than 2 separate place bets). If you agree with this calculation, then the $44 inside bet really does have a HE of 1.14%.

What do people think? I know this is somewhat of a triviality...but, l'm surprised not to have seen this aspect of combining bets to lower the HE.

Before I get flamed, just answer this question...what is the HE of a $12 bet that wins $7, 5/8th of the time (and loses 3/8th of the time)?

You get different answers from different people.

Here's my answer. I bet on the dice, not on the felt.

The edge should be considered per roll on any bet you make.

If you added $1 plus 1¢ would you get $2 or 2¢ as a result?

The answer is neither. You get $1.01. $1 is 100¢ and $1.01 is 101¢.

This stuff is easy.

So when you say a place bet on the four for $5 has a house edge of 6.66%, that's one way of looking at it.

But I look at it as 6.66% HA% spread over an average of 36/9 or 4 rolls. That's an edge of 1.66666% per roll.

The HA% per roll on the six eight is that 1.5151515151 / ( 36 / 11 ) = 0.46296296296% PER ROLL.

If you consider EACH bet to "resolve" per roll (even the pass and come bets) it's my suggestion that this helps you choose the lower cost bets.

The edge per resolved bet is the edge per roll multiplied by the average number of rolls you decide to have action on that bet.

So if you bet $6 6 and $6 8 for ten hours, your house edge will be for 1000 times the 0.46296% which means you'll lose all $12 about four and a half times or about $54 in losses that you'll need to overcome by a little more than seven extra instances of the six and eight over the course of those ten hours to make up for the cost with a little bit of good luck.

But as a percentage of your action, yes, your HA% would be a whopping 462.96296% for that $12 in action for ten hours (a $12 bet that lasts for ten hours).

That's how it works.

edit!

Quote:

this is called
comparing
apples to oranges
many think it is
apples to apples

Every craps bet has a HE. The field bet has a HE, but looks nothing like a place bet.

Consider this: suppose I made a new type of craps bet that pays 9 to 20 on (5, 6, 7, 8, or 9), but loses on everything else. What is the HE? Answer: (24/36 * 9 - 12/36 * 20) / 20 = 3.33%. Now suppose I change my new bet to pay 7 to 12 on (6, 8) and lose on the 7. What's the HE? Answer: (10/16 * 7 - 6/16 * 12) / 12 = 1.04%.

If I play this bet for 100 shooters, taking it down instantly after it wins once (or the shooter hits a 7), my expected loss is 1.04 * bet size. If I make a single place 6 bet on 100 shooters (taking it down after it resolves), my expected loss is 1.52 * bet size.

---

NB: The per roll edge of this bet is identical to a single place 6/8...it's just that this bet takes fewer rolls to resolve.

Quote: MB

I'm surprised not to have seen this aspect of combining bets to lower the HE.

We often see here people making points about how the HE can change - be surprising even - with different bet combinations. I have to say it just leads to a lot of confusion. My advice to players has been, when confronted with surprising or complicated bet combination talk that the poster [or book writer or system seller] has touted is to quit looking at the HE and just focus on the EV.

Bet combinations can just be overwhelmingly complicated, the poster may or may not have every aspect right and it is a headache to parse it out. You seem to have trotted out a simpler one, but IMO the matter has weight only if HE changes really might matter when the EV of each bet cannot be changed [and the answer is no]. I'm sorry, but that just settles it for me. I have good company: casinos just do not care what bet combinations you come up with, BRING IT!!

[edits]

Quote: MB

Every craps bet has a HE. The field bet has a HE, but looks nothing like a place bet.

that is your opinion only
not at all true, imo
now you sound like a Frank Scoblete, imo

the odds bet for a pass line bet has 0% HE, imo
the odds bet for a come bet has 0% HE, imo
the odds bet for a don't pass bet has 0% HE, imo
the odds bet for a don't come bet has 0% HE, imo
a Buy bet on the 4 with no vig on a win or when the bet is made has a 0% HE,, imo
these bets i have made personally

imo
all HE values are just an opinion

a $6 place bet on the 8 on a win is shorted on a payout by exactly 20 cents, imo
a $5 place bet on the 5 on a win is shorted on a payout by exactly 50 cents, imo

the house edge comes from this short pay, imo
so
unless one can change the short pay or the winning probability making it higher (like controlling the dice)
or the losing probability making that lower one bet HE can never change
now with a combined bet with 2 or more bets
imo,
unless one can change the short pay or the winning probability making it higher or the losing probability making that lower one bet HE can never change
************************<>*************************
here is the bottom line
HE is a meaningless value, imo
what has the most meaning, imo, is the loss from any bet made (the EV or expected loss)
-$2 is for the example

btw, your calculation of 12*16 in your 1st post
for the total action in the denom

why not include all the money in the rail?
it is at risk every roll, i say, not my opinion

ask Ahigh about that
because he calculates the place bet HE (PER ROLL)
with the bets always working even on a come out roll, the way most all do not play and never will play
so that is now his opinion

see, it is the opinion that really matters
thank you for sharing your opinion(s)

if you missed it
i said
"thank you"

Quote: odiousgambit

We often see here people making points about how the HE can change...

and that is still an opinion
many take an opinion and from it arrive at a conclusion
now that conclusion also becomes an opinion
so all conclusions from an opinion are just an opinion

just like any woman is a better craps player than any man can ever be, without trying
is just an opinion, no HE calculation required

thank you for sharing your opinion(s) too (1+1)

thank you

Quote: Ahigh

You get different answers from different people.

and every answer given is just a simple opinion
thank you for sharing your opinion
I still wonder why you give per roll HE for a craps bet
the way craps players do not play, i will figure it out , it just takes me some extra time...

ands...
a wrong or right answer does not matter, in other words it is meaningless
just like the best way to play craps = answer
(a google search too)
there IS no correct answer, just lots of opinions, imo

Oh WOW!!!! i hear
of course, self-claimed craps experts like Frank Scoblete say only his answer is correct
only his and those that believe him

now the school bell just went off...

only in school does it matter, imo
i never did like school teachers, because,

they always wanted

an answer

that they said was correct

sure takes the fun out of being in school
i mean ask Katy Perry or Taylor Swift
they went to school too

thank you

Quote: beachbumbabs

If I'm following you, and your math method is correct in the last sentence,

you are saying "your math method is correct"

does that mean the math is also correct and does that really matter?

i mean that that math answer is correct
like 2 apples + 3 apples = 5 apples (not mentioning that i actually ate one of the apples while counting them)

thank you for sharing says Sally

if you do not like what i share, that is your opinion
and you are free to do what makes you feel the best, imo too

and for the record, i trust no online casino and will never make one bet online, no matter what the HE of the bet is,
except a sports bet, my exception

thank you

A warm welcome to the forum, MB. I see you are interested you are interested in casino game analysis because you are reading gambling articles and double-checking their math. I encourage you to stick around and enjoy the wealth of casino knowledge available here.

Craps odds are usually calculated per bet resolution rather than "per roll", which could be your numbers differ.

As for this thread, people who know craps much better than I have addressed your query. (thanks Sally for the fun exposé)

Quote: studmuffn

A warm welcome to the forum, MB. I see you are interested you are interested in casino game analysis because you are reading gambling articles and double-checking their math. I encourage you to stick around and enjoy the wealth of casino knowledge available here.

Craps odds are usually calculated per bet resolution rather than "per roll", which could be your numbers differ.

As for this thread, people who know craps much better than I have addressed your query. (thanks Sally for the fun exposé)

Thanks stud. So far, I do not feel that my query has been addressed. The responses that "everything is an opinion" and "2+3 != 5 because I ate 1" are not the well thought out responses that I was expecting (hoping for?)

Quote: studmuffn

A warm welcome to the forum, MB. I see you are interested you are interested in casino game analysis <snip>

i do not think that is why he is here

he saids thoissssss

"After thinking about it more, I believe Jerry is wrong. "
super!
to me that means he might believe he is right and Jerry is wrong
Oh, oh

that to me makes what he said
an opinion
and weeeee all have at least one opinion to share

Quote: studmuffn

As for this thread, people who know craps much better than I have addressed your query. (thanks Sally for the fun exposé)

you are welcome and thank you
thank you

nows,
i do not think " people who know craps much better" is important at all
Ahigh member is not a craps expert, by his own admission,
maybe he is a craps authority instead

a forum is all about asking questions, sharing thoughts and opinions
it be fun (i like to learn new things, to me that is fun two)

remember
the bottom line is

"After thinking about it more, I believe Jerry is wrong. "

Quote: MB

Thanks stud. So far, I do not feel that my query has been addressed.

you can calculate a combined HE any way you wish

so what?
no one at all really cares what the answers are... in my opinion

it is what you believe and no one else


I showed your denominator contained the error for how EXPERTS calculate house edge
******************************************
but we still love to share our opinions

thank you for sharing yours

you could say one time
thank you
Mully

Quote: MB

Consider this: suppose I made a new type of craps bet

for your casino that you own
ok
i there

Quote: MB

that pays 9 to 20 on (5, 6, 7, 8, or 9), but loses on everything else. What is the HE? Answer: (24/36 * 9 - 12/36 * 20) / 20 = 3.33%.

the answer you gave is just your opinion
it is not right or is not wrong, imo

and the new bet you offered in your new casino
is actually NOT a combination of 2 or more separate bets...

i agree the ev = (24/36 * 9 - 12/36 * 20)

but the 20 for the total action does not contain all other bets that might be at risk either on the felt or in the rail or on your person, that should lower the HE even more...
la la la

AT RISK should be considered, imo
as only $$$$ that plays, stays

as is a $44 inside
that is 4 different bets, but many sees it as only 1 bet

i think your example was an orange and your 1st OP was about apples

i like both
thank you again

Quote: MB

Thanks stud. So far, I do not feel that my query has been addressed. The responses that "everything is an opinion" and "2+3 != 5 because I ate 1" are not the well thought out responses that I was expecting (hoping for?)

Well, understand that we get a lot of first-time posters with revolutionary betting systems, and each is addressed or lampooned appropriately, given their tone. Those who defend their betting systems are run out of town. That's why you'll gain more from the forum if you stick around and let this one go.

Placing a bet on two numbers obviously increases your chances of hitting, but ultimately doubles your expected $ loss.

From wizardofodds.com, "The house edge is defined as the ratio of the average loss to the initial bet."

By that definition and your calculation, you implicitly agree that the HE is 1.04%. Thank you!

There...I said "thank you".

---

Stud...this isn't a system. I merely made an observation about craps that I have not seen made very often.

---

Mully, I care because I occasionally bet $440 inside and take it down after 1 hit. I care about the the EV and/or edge on that bet (and every other bet I make). It is not 4 separate bets, since only 1 "bet" is resolved 75% of the time.

Quote: MB

From wizardofodds.com, "The house edge is defined as the ratio of the average loss to the initial bet."

By that definition and your calculation, you implicitly agree that the HE is 1.04%. Thank you!

i do not agree with that

as the Wizard has expressed his opinion on the matter only


the Wizard has also shown many mistakes on his old website
mistakes others pointed out to him
so why believe anything he says, in print, when we know it can be an error with a probability greater than 0?

it is what it is

you still say this
i think you want a brownie button

"After thinking about it more, I believe Jerry is wrong. "

Quote: MB

Mully, I care because I occasionally bet $440 inside and take it down after 1 hit. I care about the the EV and/or edge on that bet <sinp>

imo, you should ONLY care about the expected value and not the house edge for you "one bet that covers 4 separate bets"

that is so funny

why are you here again?
"After thinking about it more, I believe Jerry is wrong. "

I agree
both you, Jerry and I are wrong, exactly 100% wrong, btw

Ahigh is almost right

so let us see other opinions

$440 inside, is a major sucker bet in my book
but it keeps the casinos happy

thank you for sharing
next

Do you agree that the EV of a $440 inside bet taken down after the bet is resolved (i.e. 5,6,7,8,9 hits) is -$5? If we agree on that, then there is nothing more to say.

The random event defines the bet. Not the markings on the felt.

If you disagree then what is the HA% for the eight when no dice are thrown.

The inane and repetitive insults hurled such as sally suggesting that I lack expertise in craps is as much of a distraction as thinking that place bets are defined by some average number of rolls merely as a result of groups of people following the same mistaken logic (that bets are defined by markings on the felt rather than random outcomes).

Try to find ha% without rolling any dice.

You bet on the dice not on felt.

End of story.

Makes as much sense as adding kilograms and lbs and being confused about wrong answers for weight because you don't convert to the same units.

Quote: MB

Do you agree that the EV of a $440 inside bet taken down after the bet is resolved (i.e. 5,6,7,8,9 hits) is -$5? If we agree on that, then there is nothing more to say.

only if you agree that the average resolved bet = $193 1/3 US

that makes the combined HE = -3/116 (exactly)
between 1.52% and 4% as expected (%)

of course
you and many others can and do express your opinion that the HE = -5/440 exactly
way lower than all 4 individual bets
that is something, i DUE says so

i place this all under the apples to oranges comparison as i am free to do this

remember
"After thinking about it more,



















I believe Jerry is wrong. "

that leads to this last Q i have
"are you a craps expert?"
**************************************************************
$10,000 on the OVER
tonight Angel's game (no fear)
I be there
(7 runs will be a push and i need no luck as the Angels will score at least 7 runs beacuse Mike and Albert are having pizza for dinner!)
got to run ands pick up my hubby from his work

Quote: Ahigh

The inane and repetitive insults hurled such as sally suggesting that I lack expertise in craps is as much of a distraction <snip>

I asked you a simple yes/no question B4
if you are a craps expert
and you never answered that simple question.

I understand you are still married to your beautiful wife (i hope her name is not Sally)

so i think now you are only just a plain old craps authority...
so i guess i am 100% wrong on that too

see if I win my OVER bet tonight
I B called crazy to make it

thank you for sharing

what insults!?!
Alan!
Mully

Quote: mustangsally

only if you agree that the average resolved bet = $193 1/3 US

that makes the combined HE = -3/116 (exactly)
between 1.52% and 4% as expected (%)

First of all, the EV is -$5 regardless whether I agree with you. I agree with you that the "average resolved bet" is $193.33. We have different definitions for HE in this scenario. Let's leave it as that.

Quote: mustangsally

that leads to this last Q i have
"are you a craps expert?"

No.

Quote: MB

I agree with you that the "average resolved bet" is $193.33. We have different definitions for HE in this scenario. Let's leave it as that.

so neither of us are craps experts

that is news!

but that Jerry guy is one, well a DI expert so it is written, so no craps (math) expert possibly...

well, I agree with you his math is just wrong
awful wrong (not Donald Catlin right)
augustbe ugly wrong, in my opinion of course

his method is even worse (ugh!)
what a character(s)! (ugh!)

for the $44 inside house edge
i get ev = -0.50
avg resolved action = $19 1/3


here is a method that i think is easy to follow
for the $44 inside house edge

for the $440 inside house edge

it is what it is

the HE formula is
ev / total resolved action = HE

so -3/116 or -2.5862% per decision
(3/116 * 2/3 = 1/58 = per roll = happy Ahigh)

he Jerry gots (proposes) a loss of 1.16
$1.16/$44 = 0.026 = 2.6 percent (rounded for easy understanding i am guessing)
where i get 1.16/44 = 2.636%
or exactly
-29/1100


time to simulate to get a correct opinion on the matter
(Ahigh, no do it, no, no, no. I ask you to take the wife and kids out to a very nice dinner and movies)
what?
oh, yes
to see who really is correct, no opinions

now off to the Big A!
I made a small bet the Angles lose
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
recap: 11:56pm
won my small and large bet tonite
many still said I was crazy to bet so much on the over (i knew it was going over so i had to bet big)
time to spend my winnings on a short vacation
just 7 days or so

have fun!