Video Poker: Changes to JoB Optimal Strategy based on Progressive value?
June 30th, 2015 at 12:50:10 PM
permalink
Hello all,
I visit Vegas once or twice a month, and play at a casino that has a quarter VP progressive that very regularly gets very, very high. I suspect it gets so high because it is located near the sports bar and I regularly see people one-coining it just to sit and watch sports. I've witnessed twice now someone hitting the royal with one coin in (one player was apoplectic, poor lady, but the other chap blissfully didn't know any better and was happy with the 250 quarter largess).
In any case, this progressive is very often over $2,000 and several times I've witnessed it over $4,000-- quite a payday for quarters. I've been lucky enough to hit it five times, the highest win being $3,600. I only play JoB on this machine (98.44%, not bad for a progressive).
My question is this: does the payout amount for a royal flush ever get so high that it would be mathematically prudent to change strategy? At what multiplier of 4000 coins would basic strategy change, and what would those strategy changes look like? I assume there has to be an amount at which, say, holding two suited face cards would be theoretically the better play than a pair of nines. Two or three or four times the normal jackpot might not be enough, but I am academically curious as to how large the progressive would have to be to depart from basic strategy. In any case, I thought it might make an interesting math problem.
I visit Vegas once or twice a month, and play at a casino that has a quarter VP progressive that very regularly gets very, very high. I suspect it gets so high because it is located near the sports bar and I regularly see people one-coining it just to sit and watch sports. I've witnessed twice now someone hitting the royal with one coin in (one player was apoplectic, poor lady, but the other chap blissfully didn't know any better and was happy with the 250 quarter largess).
In any case, this progressive is very often over $2,000 and several times I've witnessed it over $4,000-- quite a payday for quarters. I've been lucky enough to hit it five times, the highest win being $3,600. I only play JoB on this machine (98.44%, not bad for a progressive).
My question is this: does the payout amount for a royal flush ever get so high that it would be mathematically prudent to change strategy? At what multiplier of 4000 coins would basic strategy change, and what would those strategy changes look like? I assume there has to be an amount at which, say, holding two suited face cards would be theoretically the better play than a pair of nines. Two or three or four times the normal jackpot might not be enough, but I am academically curious as to how large the progressive would have to be to depart from basic strategy. In any case, I thought it might make an interesting math problem.
June 30th, 2015 at 1:00:18 PM
permalink
Welcome to the forum. This forum really is a wealth of knowledge. Also, congratulations on all those royals!
The short answer to your question is yes. I would recommend hitting the search button on the top and search for "progressive JoB strategy", you should find plenty.
The short answer to your question is yes. I would recommend hitting the search button on the top and search for "progressive JoB strategy", you should find plenty.
"Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1." -Warren Buffett on risk/return
June 30th, 2015 at 1:28:15 PM
permalink
Welcome to the forums! Another option is to use the Wizards strategy and return calculator for VP.
When using the calculator simply modify the pay table to your progressive amount and it will tell you the appropriate strategies! This should be your simplest solution, though I do recommend reading the other threads as surrender suggested. There is indeed a wealth of information on this site and reading the threads is half the fun =p.
edit - for example.. if the progressive is $2k instead of the standard $1k, plug 1600 in as the top 1 coin payout (on your 9-5 game you referenced). At $2k I'm showing the game has a return of 100.74%! At $3k, it's 103.22%! ...it also gives you the strategy you're looking for ;). Maybe since I only go to Vegas like twice a year you could PM me this place =D.
When using the calculator simply modify the pay table to your progressive amount and it will tell you the appropriate strategies! This should be your simplest solution, though I do recommend reading the other threads as surrender suggested. There is indeed a wealth of information on this site and reading the threads is half the fun =p.
edit - for example.. if the progressive is $2k instead of the standard $1k, plug 1600 in as the top 1 coin payout (on your 9-5 game you referenced). At $2k I'm showing the game has a return of 100.74%! At $3k, it's 103.22%! ...it also gives you the strategy you're looking for ;). Maybe since I only go to Vegas like twice a year you could PM me this place =D.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
June 30th, 2015 at 9:39:10 PM
permalink
The other thing that I would like to mention is that, if you're doing this live, you might only look at the most obvious changes in strategy (in terms of EV) and memorize those rather than consult the table every single time, at least, if you're getting positive EV out of the play.
Some may disagree with me on this, but my opinion is, if it is a linked Progressive, you don't want to be looking up the strategy every few hands when you could be playing. To realize that EV, you need to hit the Royal, so let's say you're playing 800 hands/hour and two other people are playing that...now, if you lose ten hands every time you check the strategy, then you are effectively giving them thirty hands. Ten hands for each of them and the ten that you didn't get to play. Imagine you're getting a theoretical of +1% on every single hand, so on quarters, you're getting 1.25 cents, if you lose ten hands looking up strategy, you're losing 10.25 cents and you're only going to lose that on one non Optimal play if it is at the top of the list and should be memorized...and probably only then in extreme circumstances.
If it's not linked, then maybe you can check for more border-line decisions, even though:
A.) It would probably bring down your hourly expectation
AND
B.) Even if you say you're going to play until it hits, AND even in the unlikely event you can maintain 800 hands/hour for a crazy long duration, you're still going to be looking at roughly two entire days before you've played a Royal cycle, especially allowing for bathroom breaks.
Some may disagree with me on this, but my opinion is, if it is a linked Progressive, you don't want to be looking up the strategy every few hands when you could be playing. To realize that EV, you need to hit the Royal, so let's say you're playing 800 hands/hour and two other people are playing that...now, if you lose ten hands every time you check the strategy, then you are effectively giving them thirty hands. Ten hands for each of them and the ten that you didn't get to play. Imagine you're getting a theoretical of +1% on every single hand, so on quarters, you're getting 1.25 cents, if you lose ten hands looking up strategy, you're losing 10.25 cents and you're only going to lose that on one non Optimal play if it is at the top of the list and should be memorized...and probably only then in extreme circumstances.
If it's not linked, then maybe you can check for more border-line decisions, even though:
A.) It would probably bring down your hourly expectation
AND
B.) Even if you say you're going to play until it hits, AND even in the unlikely event you can maintain 800 hands/hour for a crazy long duration, you're still going to be looking at roughly two entire days before you've played a Royal cycle, especially allowing for bathroom breaks.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
July 1st, 2015 at 6:16:08 AM
permalink
I know one that gets really high really often, but not located near a sports book. :(
July 7th, 2015 at 4:02:58 PM
permalink
Wow, thanks for the super-shot of knowledge and how-to. Much appreciated!
Yes, memorizing the most obvious ones does seem like the best strategy. It would be a buzzkill to the cool frenzy atmosphere to have to stop and look up ever minor detail. I can't imagine people waiting to play would like that, either. Short story-- the last time this particular progressive was up over 4K was last Superbowl weekend. I got up at 4:30am to try to nab a chair and still waited (lurking, watching people's bankroll dwindle-- horrible, I know) over an hour. Later in the day, some drunk coed was one-coining it and one of the serious players that was waiting got a casino host to ask her to give up her spot. Crazy!
It isn't a linked progressive, which is much more fun. When it gets that high, you seem the same people all day and develop a kind of comraderie that you generally don't get playing VP. It's pretty cool to see everyone hoot and cheer when someone hits it-- and then listen to everyone immediately cash out their tickets.
Thanks again everyone!
Yes, memorizing the most obvious ones does seem like the best strategy. It would be a buzzkill to the cool frenzy atmosphere to have to stop and look up ever minor detail. I can't imagine people waiting to play would like that, either. Short story-- the last time this particular progressive was up over 4K was last Superbowl weekend. I got up at 4:30am to try to nab a chair and still waited (lurking, watching people's bankroll dwindle-- horrible, I know) over an hour. Later in the day, some drunk coed was one-coining it and one of the serious players that was waiting got a casino host to ask her to give up her spot. Crazy!
It isn't a linked progressive, which is much more fun. When it gets that high, you seem the same people all day and develop a kind of comraderie that you generally don't get playing VP. It's pretty cool to see everyone hoot and cheer when someone hits it-- and then listen to everyone immediately cash out their tickets.
Thanks again everyone!
