Expected Value of Parlaying

Alright so I just got back from a local casino, before anyone asks I don't want to talk about how I did :(. I saw someone placing the 4/10 for $10, then after a win buying (vig paid before/after) it for $25 ALWAYS. So basically:

- Once it is hit, the bet is pressed. ($10 bet + $18 win ==> $26 buy bet + $2 winnings)
- Any winnings are just that, winnings. No more pressing. ($25 buy bet ==> $49 winnings)

What is the EV of this betting scheme per $10. Is there an easy way to analytically calculate this, or would you need to simulate it? If it's the latter, don't bother. This is kind of the same situation as pressing, which I try and refrain from doing unless I get bored because I (believe) that it increases your variance at the expense of EV.

I'm also interested, more generally, about everyone's pressing habits. I tend to do it too often, when I'm in the heat of the moment, and regret it afterwards.

Quote: ahiromu

Alright so I just got back from a local casino, before anyone asks I don't want to talk about how I did :(. I saw someone placing the 4/10 for $10, then after a win buying (vig paid before/after) it for $25 ALWAYS. So basically:

- Once it is hit, the bet is pressed. ($10 bet + $18 win ==> $26 buy bet + $2 winnings)
- Any winnings are just that, winnings. No more pressing. ($25 buy bet ==> $49 winnings)

What is the EV of this betting scheme per $10. Is there an easy way to analytically calculate this, or would you need to simulate it? If it's the latter, don't bother. This is kind of the same situation as pressing, which I try and refrain from doing unless I get bored because I (believe) that it increases your variance at the expense of EV.

I'm also interested, more generally, about everyone's pressing habits. I tend to do it too often, when I'm in the heat of the moment, and regret it afterwards.

Here's a tip about if you really want to get the pressing under control. If you can find a $5 table, bet the Come rather than the Place. Then you still get the benefit of multiple roll victories, but you have a forced upper limit on your press. (The odds multiple) You'll still have a lot of action on the table, but it's capped, so if there's a hot shooter, you'll never get so much money on the table that the eventual 7 out is very costly.